Connecticut Sun vs. Minnesota Lynx Prediction for the Fourth of July

WNBA fans and bettors will get to wrap up their Fourth of July festivities with a great game between the Connecticut Sun and Minnesota Lynx. Both teams have struggled a little lately and could use a win, especially one over one of the league’s top teams.

The Sun and Lynx are two of the top teams in the league this season.  A win over the other could prove pivotal later in the season when it comes time for a playoff push and seeding. Minnesota won their matchup earlier in the season, and the two will play again later in the year.

Let’s take a look at the betting odds for the game, along with our betting preview and pick.

Sun vs. Lynx Betting Odds for Thursday, July 4

The point spread for this game opened with the Lynx as one-point favorites despite dropping two of their last three games.  But the line has since moved; Minnesota is now a 3-point favorite. Connecticut was a 5.5-point favorite when these teams met on their home court on May 23.

The Sun won that game in overtime, 83-82. At that point in the season, few thought the Lynx would be one of the top contenders in the league. While they are one of the top teams in the league against the spread (tied with Seattle for first, 13-6 ATS), they went 7-5 ATS in June.

Connecticut has not been a good team ATS this season (8-11) but went 7-5 ATS in June, just like Minnesota. Here are the betting odds for the game with odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Head over to FanDuel to place your bets and claim the bonus: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets if Your Bet Wins.

Also, check our Daily WNBA Player Props and Best Bets where we cover props for the Sun vs Lynx game.

Sun vs. Lynx Preview

This game will be the 54th in the all-time series between these two teams. Connecticut currently holds the lead with 31 wins to 22 for Minnesota. The Sun has been in control of the series in recent seasons, having won eight of the last ten meetings.

The last time these two teams played in Minneapolis (Sept. 9, 2023), the Sun won 90-75.

Connecticut Sun Prediction

The last week or so of June did not go well for the Sun. After starting the month 7-1, they lost three of their last five. With an 83-72 win over Phoenix to kick off July, they improved to 15-4 and owned the second-best record.

So, why the slip?

Prior to their June 21 game vs. the Aces, they had the No. 6 offense with 80.9 ppg and the No. 1 defense (70.7 ppg allowed). But from June 21 to July 1 (when they went 2-3), their defense slipped down to No. 5 (79.6 ppg allowed), and the offense down to No. 9 (77.2 ppg).

The change can partially be chalked up to the competition (Seattle and Las Vegas), but Washington, Atlanta, and Phoenix are not in the same class.

Connecticut can play phenomenal defense, but when it doesn’t, the team lacks a go-to scoring threat to turn to when it needs points.

Bet on Connecticut Sun at FanDuel

Minnesota Lynx Prediction

After losing two of three on their last road trip, the Lynx could use a game or two at home where they are 9-1 this season, the one defeat a blowout loss to the Aces 80-66. When playing at home, where they have won seven in a row, they have averaged 82.9 ppg while the defense has allowed 72 ppg.

The only team giving up fewer points at home—the Connecticut Sun (71 ppg). But it’s their road defense the Lynx will have to worry about, which is also good, 75.3 ppg allowed. The only teams that give up less on the road are Seattle (73.4 ppg) and Minnesota (72 ppg).

But a common thread in Sun games this year has been controlling the game with defense while scoring enough to win. Connecticut has scored over 90 points twice this season: in the blowout win over Indiana in the season opener and the overtime win over Washington.

If you don’t need to score 90+ because your defense is fantastic, it’s okay.

Bet on Minnesota Lynx at FanDuel

Sun vs. Lynx - My Pick

This game could be one of the best of the season, with two of the best teams in the league facing off. It would not be shocking if it played out much like their first meeting this season, a one-point win for the home team. At the same time, Connecticut has been a powerhouse on the road this season.

Three of the Sun’s losses have come against two of the best defenses (New York and Seattle) and the top-scoring team (Las Vegas). With the No. 2 scoring defense in the league, the Lynx should be able to keep LeBron James and crew in check.

However, as the owners of the best defense in the league, the Sun should be able to keep the Minnesota offense in check.

• My Pick: UNDER 152.5 (-110) at FanDuel

Earlier in the season, these teams combined to score 165. Each team’s defense will play a more significant role this time, keeping the score relatively low. But if the low total makes you nervous, we like the Sun at +116.

Bet on Under 152.5 (-110) at FanDuel

How to Watch Sun vs. Lynx

• Location: Target Center in Minneapolis, MN

• Game Time & Date: 8 p.m. ET on Thursday, July 4

• Coverage: Prime Video