WNBA Semifinal Game 5: Connecticut Sun vs. Minnesota Lynx Prediction

The Minnesota Lynx will host the Connecticut Lynx at the Target Center in Minneapolis Tuesday night for Game 5 of their Semi-final series. Win and move on to face the New York Liberty in the WNBA Finals. Lose, and it's time to start preparing for the next season.

With a trip to the WNBA Finals on the line, fans can expect to see both teams bring their  ‘A’ games for what should be a wildly entertaining and competitive contest. Let’s check out the betting line for Tuesday’s pivotal game, our betting preview, and a few WNBA player props.

The home team has been favored in every game, and props.

Sun vs. Lynx Betting Odds for Semifinals, Game 5

Game 5 is no different, as the Lynx opened as a 3.5-point favorite. They were 3.5-point favorites in Game 1 but lost by three, 73-70. Minnesota finished the regular season tied with the New York Liberty for the best home record at 16-4.

But one of those losses was to Sun on the Fourth of July, 78-73.

Here’s the betting line for tonight’s Sun vs. Lynx game. Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Place your bets on FanDuel and claim $300 in bonus bets when wagering $5.

Sun vs. Lynx Preview

Tonight’s game will be the 60th in the all-time series between these two teams. Connecticut has controlled the series with 34 wins to 25 for Minnesota. The Sun have won seven of the last ten regular season games, with the home team going 7-3 in that stretch. As for the OVER, it was just 3-7 in the last ten.

Connecticut won the regular season series this year, 2-1, with wins at home and in Minneapolis.

Sun Preview

According to the old saying, offense wins games, and defense wins championships. 

With the top-rated defense in the league this season at 94.1, the Sun definitely has a championship-caliber defense. During the regular season, they held the league’s best offensive teams to well below their respective season averages.

This includes Minnesota. The Lynx averaged 82 points per game during the regular season, but when they faced the Sun, they averaged 77.7 ppg.

However, whether the Sun can play championship-caliber defense has never been in question. What has been in question, however, has been Connecticut’s offense. Defense is great, but if you hold a team to 77 points, you still need to score at least 78.

In half of their regular-season losses, the Sun held their opponents to under 80 points, but the offense didn’t get the job done. However, it has stepped up during the postseason, averaging 82.7 points per game. They’ve held opponents to 78.2 ppg.

They have held Minnesota to 79.8 ppg in the series while scoring 79 ppg.

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Lynx Preview

It has been a back-and-forth series, with each team winning one on the other’s court. But while the Lynx would undoubtedly prefer to be getting some rest ahead of a tough series against the New York Liberty in the WNBA Finals, they have the Sun right where they want them—at home.

Minnesota was one of the top home teams in the league this season, going 16-4. They averaged more points on the road (83.7 ppg) than at home (80.3). But they made up for it by playing lockdown defense and giving up just 72.8 ppg, giving them the third-best point differential at home (7.5).

But the question for this game will be whether they can overcome the league’s No. 1 road defense (Connecticut allowed 76.3 ppg on the road). The Lynx have come alive on the scoreboard during the postseason, scoring 87 ppg.

However, they were held to 70 and 77 points in Games 1 and 2. But if their defense can step up against the Connecticut offense, they may have some room for error.  While the Sun had the No. 1 defense (73.6 ppg allowed) during the regular season, the Lynx had the No. 2 defense (75.6 ppg allowed).

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Sun vs. Lynx Pick

• My Pick: Minnesota -4.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook

Connecticut has a great team, but it doesn’t have enough offense to beat a team that plays as well as Minnesota does on both ends of the court. It will be a great game, but the Lynx will prevail in the end. Game 1 was decided by three points, but 2-4 was decided by 7, 9, and 10.

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Sun vs. Lynx Player Props

Napheesa Collier, O/U 21.5 Points at -106/-122 at FanDuel

• O/U 9.5 Rebounds at -106/-125 at FanDuel

• To Record a Double Double at -110 at FanDuel

Collier has taken her game to a different level during the postseason. Against the Mercury, she scored 38 and 42 points to push her team into the semifinals. While she scored 19 points in Game 1 and an underwhelming nine in Game 2, she bounced back hard in a pivotal Game 3 for 26 and 29 in Game 4.

With elimination and a trip to the Finals on the line, Collier will be impossible to stop. She’ll do her part to get the team to the Finals and then some. Take the OVER. As for her rebound number, she had nine in Game 1 but had 12, 11, and 13 in Games 2-4.

Again, with elimination and a trip to the Finals on the line, she will be a beast on the boards. Take the OVER.

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Alyssa Thomas, OU 14.5 Points at +104/-135 at FanDuel

• O/U 9.5 Rebounds at -108/-122 at FanDuel

• O/U 8.5 Assists at -122/-108 at FanDuel

• To Record a Triple Double at +340 at FanDuel

Thomas has been stepping up her game during the postseason, coming close to recording a triple-double if not actually recording one (vs. Indiana in Game 1). After averaging around ten points per game during the regular season, she hasn’t scored less than 12 in the playoffs, with 17+ in four of six games.

She’ll do her best to get her team to the Finals. Take the OVER. As for her rebound numbers, she had ten in three of six playoff games, including Games 1 and 2 vs. the Lynx. Despite getting nine and eight in Games 3 and 4, we are leaning towards the OVER.

Regarding her assists total, Thomas does a great job of getting her teammates involved, and we don’t expect this game to be any different. She’s had over 8.5 in four of six playoff games, and tonight‘s game will make it four of seven.

If you believe she’ll go OVER all three totals, you might as well take her to record a triple-double.

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How to Watch Sun vs. Lynx

• Location: Target Center in Minneapolis, MN

• Game Time & Date: 8 p.m. ET on Tuesday, October 8

• Coverage: ESPN2