WNBA Semifinal Game 3: New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces Prediction

If the Las Vegas Aces are to keep hope alive for a three-peat, they’ll need to make history. No team in WNBA history has ever overcome a 0-2 deficit to win a playoff series. But that doesn’t mean the Aces should mail it in. No, it means they should do just what they need to do.

Make history.

First things first—beat the Liberty in Game 3 of the conference semifinals to force a Game 4. It will not be easy, of course, but at least they’re playing at home in Vegas. Let’s take a look at the betting odds for the game, a few player props, and our preview for this pivotal elimination game.

Liberty vs. Aces Betting Odds for Friday, October 4

After being the underdog in Games 1 and 2, the Aces opened as the favorite for Game 3 as the series moved to Vegas. The line has since adjusted, but just a little bit, as the Aces are still favored, but at 2.5 points. However, the Aces were a better team on the road, going 14-6 and 13-7 at home.

Here’s the betting line for tonight’s Liberty vs. Aces game. Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Place your bets on FanDuel and claim $200 in bonus bets when wagering $5.

Liberty vs. Aces Preview

Over the years, the Aces have been at their best vs. New York when playing in Vegas. While the Liberty have won four of the last five in New York, the Aces have won seven of the last ten vs. the Liberty in Las Vegas.

Of the 57 games in the all-time series between these two, the Aces have won 65.5% of the games played in Vegas.

Liberty Preview

They are almost there. With just one more win, the Liberty can accomplish one of their primary goals—getting back to the WNBA Finals. All they need to do is keep doing what’s worked the last two games but in Vegas rather than New York.

Playing a high-powered team like the Aces on their own court is one thing; playing them on the road is another. Vegas was the second-highest scoring home team this year, allowing 87.4 points per game, just .1 less than the Dallas Wings. But the Aces' defense actually took a step backward at home, allowing 81.8 points per game relative to 80.9 when on the road.

But the Liberty has been a solid road team this year, holding teams to 76.5 ppg and scoring 87.7 ppg (a league-best). So, does that mean it's just business as usual for the Liberty tonight? Do they just need to show up with their ‘A’ game to win?

Not exactly. While they’ll be fighting to lock down a spot in the WNBA Finals, they don’t have to win tonight. They’ll have two more chances. But the Aces will be fighting to put off elimination for one more night. So, no, just their ‘A’ game may not be enough tonight.

They’ll have to figure out how to play even better.

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Aces Preview

Things have not been going well for the 2x defending champions. The backcourt has been struggling, head coach Becky Hamon has been clearly frustrated with some of he players, and they are facing elimination (which they are not accustomed to dealing with).

Hamon’s frustrations boiled over into her post-game press conference after the Game 2 loss:

"We were the best team last year. They've been the best team this year. Because of their habits, their edge that they've had the entire year, their incredible attention to detail. Quite frankly, we haven't had the edge. Now, we found it the last month. But the feel was different from the jump [of this series].”

Defense has been an issue for the Aces throughout the season, but their offense has fallen off some during the postseason. After averaging a league-high 86.4 ppg during the regular season, they have averaged right around 80 ppg. Wilson averaged 26.9 ppg during the regular season but has scored 22.5 ppg in the playoffs.

But now we are talking about elimination, so it's either find that competitive edge again or the season is over.

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Liberty vs. Aces Pick

• My Pick: Liberty ML +128 at FanDuel Sportsbook

The Aces are a popular pick online and with bettors, but this may be a great time to fade the public. At the same time, it is reasonable to expect a team like the Aces to put up a fight at home. But while they are in search of their edge, the Liberty have theirs. They are dialed in and focused on the task at hand—unlike the Aces.

New York will win this game. They will close out the series tonight.

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How to Watch Liberty vs. Aces

• Location: Michelob ULTRA Arena in Las Vegas. NV

• Game Time & Date: 7:30 p.m. ET on Friday, October 4

• Coverage: ESPN2