WNBA Semifinal Game 1: Las Vegas Aces vs. New York Liberty

The semifinal round of the WNBA playoffs gets underway today, with last year’s champions, the Las Vegas Aces, taking on last season’s runner-up, the New York Liberty.  New York opened as a 4-point favorite to win Game 1; the line has moved to 4.5 points at a couple of sportsbooks.

The Aces and Liberty are arguably the two best teams in the WNBA, so this should be a wildly entertaining and hard-fought series… and a great one to bet on. Let’s check out the betting line for the game, along with our betting preview and a few WNBA player props.

Aces vs. Liberty Betting Odds for Sunday, September 29

As the No. 1 seed, the Liberty faced the No. 8 Atlanta Dream in the first round, sweeping them easily with a 14-point victory in Game 1 and a nine-point win in Game 2. Las Vegas had a more challenging matchup as the No.4 seed, taking on the No. 5 Seattle Storm.

The games were closer than the Liberty-Dream, but the end result was the same: a clean sweep, a pass to the semifinal round, and a postseason rematch with the Liberty.

Here is the betting line for Game 1 of the WNBA Semifinals, Aces vs. Liberty.

The following odds are provided by FanDuel Sportsbook, where new users can get $200 in bonus bets by placing a $5 wager.

Aces vs. Liberty Preview

This game will be the 56th between these two franchises. Vegas holds the series lead, 32-23. New York has won six of the last ten regular-season games, but Vegas won the best-of-five series for the championship last season 3-1.

However, New York was able to exact a little revenge during the regular season, sweeping the Aces 3-0 SU, but went 2-1 ATS.

Aces Preview

The 2x-defending champs didn’t always play their best during the regular season, but it doesn’t matter how a team plays in May, June, July, or after the All-Star break. All that matters is how you play now and whether you can play championship-caliber basketball.

For the Aces, scoring has not been an issue; they had the No. 1 offense in the regular season with 86.4 points per game, .8 ppg better than the Liberty. As long as A’ja Wilson has a pulse, the Aces will not have any problem scoring points.

However,  they did struggle on the defensive end of the court at times. In June, they averaged 86.1 ppg allowed; the team went 6-4 in June. But they started to improve in July, before the break, and had the No. 5 defense after the break, 77.7 ppg allowed.

In the first round, they held Seattle to 71.5 ppg, well below their season average of 83.2.

Liberty Preview

New York was supposed to be a team built to win a title last season after adding Breanna Stewart, Courtney Vandersloot, and Jonquel Jones in the off-season. Instead, the Aces took home the title, beating the Liberty three games to one.

The players have not tried to hide how much losing the 2023 Finals has bothered them. Vandersloot has talked about the team having a scar they’d had to work through.

So, they came into the 2024 season on a mission: to do what they should have done last year: bring the WNBA championship to the Big Apple. To that end, they won a franchise-record 32 games and had the best scoring differential in the league, +9.2.

They swept two of the other seven playoff teams during the regular (Storm, Aces) and lost one game each to the other five. Their dominance continued in the first round with a sweep of the Dream.

So, they’ve checked all the boxes. They have played great basketball on both ends of the court throughout the season and into the playoffs. If they continue to play at such a high level, they’ll make quick work of the Aces.

Aces vs. Liberty Pick

• My Pick: Liberty Spread -4 (-108) at FanDuel

This game, this series, is New York’s to lose. A’ja Wilson will make them work for it. But the Liberty will win this game and cover the spread. They may even get the clean sweep.

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Aces vs. Liberty Best Prop Bets and Odds

A’ja Wilson, O/U 23.5 Points at -115/-113 at FanDuel

• O/U 10.5 Rebounds at -138/+104 at FanDuel

Surely the regular season scoring champion will do what she can to carry her team to a win, right? She averaged 26.9 during the regular season but put up 24 and 21 vs. Seattle in the first round.

All season long, we’ve promoted taking the OVER on her point total. However, in three games against the Liberty this season, she averaged 22.5 points and ten rebounds. With much apprehension, we are leaning toward the UNDER for both.

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Breanna Stewart, O/U 19.5 Points at -120/-108 at FanDuel

• Sabrina Ionescu, O/U 17.5 Points at -106/-120 at FanDuel

Stewart averaged 20+ points per game during the regular season; Ionesco averaged 18+. With getting to the Finals on their minds, it would not be shocking to see both have solid days and lead the team to a win in Game 1. But at the same time, it would not be surprising if one were to have a big night and the other a quiet one.

Game 2 vs. the Dream is a perfect example; Ionescu scored 36 points, while Stewart had 13.

While that is a distinct possibility, we expect both ladies to have strong games. We’re leaning toward the OVER for both.

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Sabrina Ionescu, O/U 2.5 Made Threes at -114/-114 at FanDuel

• 4+ Made Threes +220 at FanDuel

If Ionescu scores over 17.5 points, there is a strong possibility that she will have a solid night from behind the arc. She scored over 17.5 points in 23 games this season; in 18, she made at least three three-pointers. We are certainly taking the OVER and leaning toward taking her to hit 4+.

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How to Watch Aces vs. Liberty

• Location: Barclays Center in Brooklyn, NY

• Game Time & Date: 3 p.m. ET on Sunday, September 29

• Coverage: ABC