Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever Prediction: Take the OVER for This High-Scoring Shoot Out

After a disappointing loss at home to the Washington Mystics, the Indiana Fever will try to get back on track tonight when they host a familiar foe, the Phoenix Mercury. While the Mercury were 7.5-point favorites in the last matchup in Phoenix, they opened as 2.5-point road favorites for this game.

However, while the Fever is coming off a loss to a Washington team they could have/should have beaten, they are still a formidable opponent when playing at home. But Phoenix has been playing well and enters the contest with a three-game winning streak on the line.

Read on for the betting odds on tonight’s game, along with our preview and pick.

Mercury vs. Fever Betting Odds for Friday, July 12

This game will be just the second time these two teams have faced off this season. The first game was roughly a couple of weeks ago in Phoenix. Indiana was the underdog and played like it in the first half, falling behind 49-38.

Find more betting insights for the Mercury vs Fever game in our Daily WNBA Player Props and Best Bets.

But they came roaring back in the second half and went to win 88-82, giving Indiana a win against the spread as well. Here are the betting odds for tonight’s Mercury vs. Fever game. Odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook where new users can claim $200 in Bonus Bets when wagering $5.

Mercury vs. Fever Preview

This game is the second between the Mercury and Fever this season and the 53rd overall. Indiana has won the last three, improving their win total to 23. However, Phoenix still holds a lead in the all-time series, 29-23. As for the total, the OVER has lost the last four and 4-6 over the last ten games.

The Mercury has become one of the better teams against the spread this season at 14-8, tied with Seattle for second best and behind the Washington Mystics. As for the Fever, Indiana is 12-11 ATS.

Phoenix Mercury Prediction

With wins in three of their last four games, Phoenix is two games above .500 (12-10) since they were 3-1 barely a week into the season. The way they have played in their last four is similar to how they started the season.

They got off to a solid start on offense, scoring 87.3 ppg (third-best). However, while they won three of their first four, they were lacking on defense, giving up 85.5 ppg. In the last four, the offense picked up the pace a bit, scoring 90 ppg, but the defense struggled, allowing 85.3 ppg.

While that difference is minimal,  the change in the team's defensive rating is more pronounced, going from 102.7 to 109.6. That may not matter much against an Indiana team that has struggled on defense, but Indiana's defense has improved, going from 113.9 (last) to 104.4 (eighth best) in the same four-game stretches.

Bet on Phoenix Mercury at FanDuel

Indiana Fever Prediction

Indiana has become a perplexing team. They have proven they are a capable squad that can hang with the best (i.e., like when they beat the Liberty in New York last Saturday, 83-78). However, they turn around and lose to an inferior Washington team a few days later, 89-84.

Continuity hasn't been an issue, just in the big picture. The Fever often struggles to get everyone on track every game.

Their last game against Phoenix is a good example. In the first half, they struggled on offense and defense and fell behind 49-38. But then, in the second half, they came together on both ends of the court and outscored the Mercury 50-33 to win 88-82.

While their defense has improved, it is still among the league's worst. To beat a Phoenix team scoring 90 ppg, they'll need to play better defense to win. Of course, it would help if Caitlin Clark could have another solid game similar to how she played vs. the Mystics (29 points, five rebounds, and 13 assists).

With 13 assists against Washington (fifth game in six with double-digit assists), Clark is now averaging the second most assists per game with 7.6 (Suns' Alyssa Thomas averaged 7.9).

Bet on Indiana Fever at FanDuel

Mercury vs. Fever Pick

• My Pick: OVER 172 at -110; the OVER is 15-8 for the Fever this season

This game will be competitive, much like the last one was. The key to the game may very well be Caitlin Clark, but not for obvious reasons. With five turnovers against Washington, she has 127 on the season, a new record for most turnovers in a season by a rookie.

Nikki McCray had set the record in 1998 with 126 in a 29-game schedule; Clark beat it in 23.

In a game that will likely be offensive-driven, the Fever can't afford to allow too many points of turnovers. Indiana averages 17.3 ppg off turnovers (eighth best in the league).

We are leaning towards the Indiana money line but recommend betting on the total instead.

Bet on Over 172 (-110) at FanDuel

How to Watch Mercury vs. Fever

• Location: Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, IN

• Game Time & Date: 7:30 p.m. ET on Friday, July 12

• Coverage: ION