2024 WNBA Finals MVP Predictions, Picks and Odds: Stewart, Ionescu, Collier are Favorites

• With the Liberty leading the series 2-1, Breanna Stewart has become a heavy favorite to win WNBA Finals MVP.

• Stewart is averaging 23 ppg and  9.7 rebounds; both marks lead all players in the WNBA Finals.

• Napheesa Collier has the shortest odds amongst Lynx players at +1000.

Game 3 of the WNBA Finals was a nail-biter. Sabrina Ionescu hit a game-winning three-pointer to give the Liberty a 2-1 advantage in the series. New York is one win away from winning the franchise’s first championship. We’ll find out if they can finish the series off Friday night or if they have to go back to New York for Game 5.

But when the final whistle blows in the deciding game, the league will do more than just crown a champion. A WNBA Finals MVP will need to be named. Now that we are down to the last two teams, odds boards are set. Odds will be shorter now than if you had bet on someone when the odds opened.

However, a winning bet is a winning bet no matter the odds.

WNBA Finals MVP Odds

Important Note: This betting market is closed for the season. For more basketball action check our coverage of the 2024/25 NBA Season.

WNBA Finals MVP Predictions and Favorites to Win

We are three games into the Finals, and several players have played a key part for both teams. But of all the playmakers on both teams, the pool of potential candidates can be narrowed to a few.

But bettors may want to remember when they look at these odds that the series is not over. It may be widely believed that this team of destiny (New York) will finish the series with a win in Minneapolis on Friday, but we all thought they’d take Game 1 in New York, too. How did that play out?

No, the series is far from done. A strong performance in Friday’s game and Game 5  (if necessary) could be enough to lock down the award for anyone.

Here are a few WNBA Finals trends worth reviewing:

• The No. 1 seed has won the NBA Finals 20 out of 27 seasons.

• The No. 2 seed has won the NBA Finals 6 out of 27 seasons.

• 17 winners were the leading scorers for their team in the regular season.

• Lisa Leslie (2001, 2002) and Cynthia Cooper (1997-2000) are the only back-to-back winners.

•  Since the WNBA Finals became a best-of-five series in 2005:

• 8 of 19 were decided 3-2

• 5 of 19 were decided 3-1, including the last three.

Let’s take a closer look at three of the top candidates:

Breanna Stewart, New York Liberty (-450) at BetMGM

Yes, she missed a few key plays in Game 1 that could have given New York the win, but she has since made up for them with her clutch play, including a double-double in Game 3: 30 points and 11 rebounds. She leads all players in the Finals with 23 points and 9.7 rebounds per game.

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Sabrina Ionescu, New York Liberty (+600) at BetMGM

Okay, so that shot to win Game 3 was a thing of beauty, but other than that—what has she done to deserve MVP? She has played well, but so have other players on the roster. If Stewart doesn’t win, Jonquel Jones would have a better case than Ionescu. For Ionescu to have a real shot, she needs (1)  Stewart to disappear in Game 4 and Game 5, and (2) she needs to dominate Game 5.

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Napheesa Collier, Minnesota Lynx (+1000) at BetMGM

If there was ever a time to bet on Collier to win WNBA Finals MVP, it is now while her odds are as high as they are. If Minnesota wins Game 4 (which is possible), her odds will probably settle around the +120-200 range heading into Game 5.

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WNBA MVP Finals Winner - My Picks

Favorite - Breanna Stewart

This is an easy decision. She has been the most impactful and productive player on the Liberty roster. If the Liberty takes Game 4, she’ll probably win WNBA Finals MVP.

Dark Horse / Long Shot - Naphheesa Collier

Game 2 was a blowout, but the Lynx got within two points roughly midway through the quarter. A single basket decided games 1 and 3. What’s my point? This series is just as much Minnesota’s to win as New York’s. If the Lynx can take Game 4 and force a Game 5 and then win Game 5, Collier will probably win Finals MVP.

But if you wait until after Game 4 to bet, her odds will be dramatically different than they are now.

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WNBA Finals MVP - History 

Below is a table containing the WNBA Finals MVP winners.

How to Read WNBA MVP Odds 

WNBA Finals MVP odds, like all futures markets, are listed with three numbers with a plus (+) or minus (-) sign. 

Most markets will get listed with a plus sign. However, as the postseason goes on, if one team emerges as a heavy favorite to win the championship, one or two of their players could have minus odds, giving them a better than 50% chance of winning.

Let’s say you want to put money on Sabrina Ionescu to win at +700. A $100 wager on Ionescu at +700 would result in an $800 payday, your stake plus $700 in winnings. But if you wait until the final two teams are decided, Stewart will probably have minus odds, i.e., -200.

At those odds, you would need to risk $200 to win $100.

How to Choose the Best Sportsbook for Betting on the WNBA Finals MVP

Choosing who you want to bet on is not the only decision you have to make. You also need to decide which sportsbook to use to place your wager. To that end, check out our full sportsbook reviews for information on the major online sportsbooks in the U.S.

Here’s a quick comparison of three of our favorites.