2024 WNBA Finals MVP Predictions, Picks and Odds: Wilson, Stewart, Collier Early Favorites

• With a 1-0 lead on the Aces in the Semifinals, New York Liberty star Breanna Stewart has become the new betting favorite, followed by her teammate, Sabrina Ionescu.

•  Seven regular season MVPs have gone on to win Finals MVP; Breanna Stewart was the last in 2018 (Seattle Storm).

• Ten Finals MVPs were not their team’s leading scorer during the regular season.

With the conclusion of the regular season, the race for WNBA MVP comes to an end…right in time for another race to begin: WNBA Finals MVP. Now that the first round is done and the semifinals are in progress, the player pool has gotten smaller, and the odds for the favorites are shorter.

There’s a lot of risk involved in betting on someone at this stage, of course. BetMGM took more tickets on Caitlin Clark (37.7%; 19.1% of the handle) than anyone else, making her the book’s biggest liability. But the Connecticut Sun put an end to that dream with a sweep in the first round.

More money came in on A’ja Wilson early on, but the Aces trail the Liberty 0-1 in their best-of-five semifinal series. Yes, you could put your money on someone that doesn’t make it to the Finals.  But you could also put your money on someone when their odds are as long as they are going to be.

Let’s take a look at the opening odds for some of the top candidates (odds via BetMGM).

WNBA Finals MVP Odds

Following are the odds for the top ten players listed at BetMGM Sportsbook. Use our code WSNSPORTS to place your bets and claim the bonus: Get Up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets!*

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WNBA Finals MVP Predictions and Favorites to Win

With the regular season MVP race done and the march to the Finals underway, bettors can find odds for WNBA Finals MVP posted at their favorite sportsbooks.

Choosing who to bet on carries a unique challenge to it. A’ja Wilson is a scoring machine and could easily go off for 30 points a night in the Finals— but a No. 4 seed has never won the Finals. She may not even make it there this year.

The No. 1 seed has won the WNBA Finals 20 times, but if Breanna Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu both go off for 20 points a night, who gets it? Stewart led the team in scoring 21 times this year (including the Commissioner’s Cup game); and Ionescu 14 times.

Don’t forget about Jonquel Jones. She was third on the team in scoring but led in rebounding, was second in double-doubles and +/-, and had a few big scoring nights during the season.

But what about players like Napheesa Collier? She led the No. 2 seed Lynx to a league-best 14-1 record after the break. No. 2 seeds have won the Finals six times. The following are a few trends to consider when deciding who may be worth betting on:

• The No. 1 seed has won the NBA Finals 20 out of 27 seasons.

• The No. 2 seed has won the NBA Finals 6 out of 27 seasons.

• The only other seed to win is the No. 6 (Chicago Sky, 2021).

• 17 winners were the leading scorer for their team in the regular season.

• Cynthia Cooper and Diana Taurasi are the only Finals MVP winners to lead the league in scoring during the regular season (Cooper, 1997-99; Taurasi, 2009).

• Seven regular season MVPs also won Finals MVP.

•  2: times the Finals MVP was on the same team as the regular season MVP.

•  Lisa Leslie (2001, 2002) and Cynthia Cooper (1997-2000) are the only back-to-back winners.

Let’s take a closer look at three of the top candidates:

Breanna Stewart, New York Liberty (+185) at BetMGM

Stewart is a 2X regular season (Storm—2018, Liberty—2023) and Finals MVP winner (2018, ‘20 with the Seattle Storm). She led the team in scoring (20.4 ppg), minutes (32.7 per game), steals (1.7), and double-doubles (5). We know what she is capable of, but she’ll get stiff competition from a teammate, Sabrina Ionescu.

New York went 3-0 vs. the Aces in the regular season, 3-1 vs. the Sun, and 1-2 vs. the Lynx.

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Sabrina Ionescu, New York Liberty (+325) at BetMGM

If the Liberty make it back to the Finals this season, it will be a toss-up between Stewart and Ionescu as to who wins MVP. If Ionescu can get hot from three-point range in two of three wins, she’ll get the nod. Otherwise, it will probably be Stewart.

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Napheesa Collier, Minnesota Lynx (+400) at BetMGM

Collier led the Lynx in scoring (20.4 ppg), rebounds (9.7), and steals (1.9). While she only had six double-doubles in the year, she was a rebound or two from recording eight more. She’s also a force on the defensive end of the court with a 92.2 rating and .233 defensive win share (best in the league).

Collier, the winner of the Defensive Player of the Year award, is a force on both ends of the court, making it a strong possibility she is in a position to win Finals MVP (assuming the Lynx make the Finals).

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A’ja Wilson, Las Vegas Aces (+500) at BetMGM

Wilson is a two-time regular season MVP. She opened as the betting favorite to win a third this season and is expected to do so. She is easily the biggest scoring threat in the WNBA, capable of scoring 30+ points and 10+ rebounds every night.

However, a No. 4 seed has never won the championship, and her numbers have been down since postseason play got underway.

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Alyssa Thomas, Connecticut Sun, (+1000) at BetMGM

If the Sun go on to make it to the Finals and win, defense will have likely been a major factor. While she is not a prolific scoring threat, Thomas is an incredible asset to the Sun’s defensive efforts. 

If defense does win championships, Thomas could be a great candidate as long as she produces a modest stat line on the offensive end.

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WNBA MVP Finals Winner - My Picks

Favorite - Breanna Stewart

History has favored the No. 1 seed so much that it is hard to justify not picking someone from the Liberty to win. Since history also favors the winning team’s leading scorer during the regular season, we’ve got to give Stewart the nod.

Dark Horse - Sabrina Ionescu

At times, she led the Liberty in scoring and can be just as prolific a scorer as Stewart. However, she  relies on three-pointers a lot to score (53% of her shots and 46.5% of her points). Stewart takes more high-percentage shots which makes her a more reliable scoring threat.

If she happens to have a couple of solid nights from behind the arc and leads the team in scoring, she could be a better choice than Stewart.

Long Shot - Marina Mabrey

Defense wins championships, but without offense to win the games…Mabrey has certainly been a valuable addition to the roster since joining the team after the All-Star/Olympics break. A solid defender, she is an excellent three-point shooter hitting 14 of 33 attempts in the postseason, so far.

Thomas may be of more value with her defensive prowess, but if Mabry drains 4-5 three-pointers a game (which is certainly possible), she’ll win MVP.

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WNBA Finals MVP - History 

Below is a table containing the WNBA Finals MVP winners.

How to Read WNBA MVP Odds 

WNBA Finals MVP odds, like all futures markets, are listed with three numbers with a plus (+) or minus (-) sign. 

Most markets will get listed with a plus sign. However, as the postseason goes on, if one team emerges as a heavy favorite to win the championship, one or two of their players could have minus odds, giving them a better than 50% chance of winning.

Let’s say you want to put money on Sabrina Ionescu to win at +700. A $100 wager on Ionescu at +700 would result in an $800 payday, your stake plus $700 in winnings. But if you wait until the final two teams are decided, Stewart will probably have minus odds, i.e., -200.

At those odds, you would need to risk $200 to win $100.

How to Choose the Best Sportsbook for Betting on the WNBA Finals MVP

Choosing who you want to bet on is not the only decision you have to make. You also need to decide which sportsbook to use to place your wager. To that end, check out our full sportsbook reviews for information on the major online sportsbooks in the U.S.

Here’s a quick comparison of three of our favorites.