Minnesota Lynx vs. New York Liberty Prediction & Betting Odds: WNBA Finals, Game 2

The New York Liberty will be on a mission Sunday when they take on the Minnesota Lynx in Game 2 of the WNBA Finals at the Barclays Center.  After a shocking upset loss in Game 1, the Liberty must win and tie the series up before it shifts to Minneapolis for Game 3 on Wednesday.

The winner of Game 1 of the WNBA Finals has gone on to win the championship in 20 of 27 seasons. But if the Liberty are to become one of the few champions to lose Game 1 but on to win the Finals, they need to win Game 2.

If Game 2 is anything like Game 1, it will be must-see TV. Let’s check out the betting line for the game, along with our preview, prediction, and some player props.

Lynx vs. Liberty Betting Odds for WNBA Finals, Game 2

Despite winning Game 1, the Minnesota Lynch did not open as the betting favorite in Gamer 2. The line opened with the Liberty as a six-point favorite, but it has since shifted and is now favored by 7.5 points.  

A handful of teams have lost Game 1, won Game 2, and went on to win the Finals. Here’s the betting line from FanDuel Sportsbook for Game 2 of the WNBA Finals, Lynx vs. Liberty.

Lynx vs. Liberty Preview

It would be understandable if bettors were to get behind the Lynx +7.5-point spread. If they can’t complete the comeback but make the final score relatively close, bettors can still win against the spread. But no, they are still backing the Liberty even with the spread moving out from where it opened at -6 to -7.5.

At popular sportsbooks, 56% of the point spread tickets are on the Lynx, but 69% of the money is on the Liberty. But 89% of the handle and 81% of moneyline tickets are on New York.

Lynx Preview

So many things went wrong for the Minnesota Lynx in Game 1 of the WNBA Finals that it is almost hard to believe they pulled out a two-point win over the home team and No. 1 seed, Liberty. 

But when they needed things to go right, for players to make plays on both ends of the court, everything fell into place. Shots started to fall, passes didn’t miss their mark—everything that needed to go right did. 

That included things going wrong for the Liberty, i.e., a bad pass, missed lay-up, turnovers, missed shots, etc., and a missed free throw that could have won the game. Better lucky than good sometimes, right?

But they are good. While the Liberty scored 93 points in the game, they only shot 37.8% from the floor, well below their regular season (44.8%) and playoff (43.6%) numbers. New York recorded five steals in the game; Minnesota had eight. The Lynx defense recorded nine blocks to four by the Liberty.

Minnesota’s bench outscored New York’s 15-10.

Did luck play a factor in the Game 1 win? Of course, it did, but the comeback the Lynx mounted late in the game made that moment possible, and it had nothing to do with luck. No, when push came to shove, Minnesota was the better team when it mattered most.

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Liberty Preview

The Liberty just about had it. With five minutes to play, they held a 15-point lead, 81-66. Never before in WNBA postseason history had a team lost when leading by 15+ with five minutes to play. ESPN’s analytics gave them a 99.2% chance of winning—which they, of course, didn’t.

Sabrina Ionescu had this to say after the game:

"We can't play to 'not lose,' and I think we started to play a little bit [like that]. We were up a lot, and we kind of were looking at the clock, and it seemed like we took our foot off the gas a little bit. And it ended up biting us in the butt there late."

New York played well enough to win the game with 13 three-pointers to nine for the Lynx. They also outrebounded Minnesota 44-32, which included an incredible 20 offensive rebounds. The Liberty scored 93 points on a Minnesota team that had held teams to an average of 75.6 points per game in the regular season.

But then Stewart missed a short layup in the final seconds of the game that would have put the Liberty ahead. After losing a game in such a fashion, it would not be unusual if some of the confidence that made New York the best team in the league were to erode.

 Breanna Stewart’s comments after the game paint a different picture:

"This is a series. We wanted to really win, obviously, for home court. But the beauty is, we have another game on Sunday, and we'll be ready."

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Lynx vs. Liberty Prediction

• My Pick: Minnesota +7.5 (-112) at FanDuel Sportsbook

New York is too good a team not to get it together and pull out a win. However, don’t expect them to blow Minnesota out of the water. The Lynx will keep it close.

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Lynx vs. Liberty Player Props

Breanna Stewart, O/U 21.5 Points at +100/-130 at FanDuel

• Top Points Scorer +190 at FanDuel

With an overtime period to help, she scored 18 in Game 1. However, Stewart will enter this game with more fire and determination than everyone else after missing the layup and free throw that could have salvaged a win in Game 1. The Lynx will not hold her to 6-21 from the floor again. Take the OVER.

Sabrina Ionescu, O/U 2.5 Made Threes at -138/+104 at FanDuel

While she only made eight of 26 shots in Game 1, Ionescu was 3-9 from three-point range. It would not be shocking to see her make it rain from behind the arc in Game 2 to draw the defense out to her, making it easier for Stewart to attack the paint.

If the defense does not come out, Stewart kicks it out to an open Ionescu. Take the OVER.

Napheesa Collier, O/U 20.5 Points at -108/-120 at FanDuel

Collier needed four points in overtime to score 21 points in Game 1. New York will likely focus on her in this game, making it hard for her to put points on the board. With how well Courtney Williams and Kayla McBride picked up the scoring slack, she will not hesitate to kick it out to them when the Liberty defense descend on her.

Take the UNDER.

Courtney Williams, O/U 12.5 Points at -115/-113 at FanDuel

• Kayla McBride, O/U 13.5 Points at -114/-114 at FanDuel

New York will probably do what they did in Game 1: take Collier out of the equation and force other players to score points for the Lynx. Like Game 1, the focus on Collier will open up some windows for Williams and McBride. Neither will play as well as they did in Game 1 (23 and 22 points), but they do not need to to go over their respective totals.

Both have averaged 14+ in the postseason. We’re leaning towards taking the OVER for both.

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How to Watch Lynx vs. Liberty

• Location: Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York

• Time and Date: 3 p.m. ET on Sunday, October 13

• Coverage: ESPN