Minnesota Lynx vs. New York Liberty Prediction & Betting Odds: WNBA Finals, Game 1

It all started with 12 teams playing a 40-game schedule for the right to move on to the postseason, and now it ends with two teams, the New York Liberty and Minnesota Lynx, playing no more than five games for the 2024 WNBA Championship. 

Game 1 is tonight at 8 p.m. ET at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York.

Despite Minnesota winning the season series between the two, two games to one, New York is favored to win the WNBA Finals and Game 1, but the Lynx will not make it easy for them.

Lynx vs. Liberty Betting Odds for WNBA Finals, Game1

Home teams have had the advantage in the WNBA this season, but not by much, winning 125 to 114 games. But the betting favorite has had a distinct advantage, winning 74% of the time (177-62). That percentage is true for both road favorites (80-28) and home favorites (97-34).

Here is the betting line for Game 1 of the WNBA Finals, Lynx vs. Liberty. Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook where new users can get $300 in bonus bets by placing a $5 winning wager.

Lynx vs. Liberty Preview

While the Liberty is the favored team in Game 1 and for the series, the Lynx have gotten the better of them more often than not. Minnesota has won 32 of the 52 games played between them over the years. They won the season series, 2-1, and beat the Liberty in the Commissioner’s Cup this year.

Minnesota has won four of the last five against New York and seven of the last ten matchups played in New York.

Lynx Preview

Minnesota was not a team anyone saw coming, hence their WNBA Championship odds opening at +6000 giving them a 1.64% chance of winning the title this season. Now that the season has played out, we know how the team got to the Finals, playing a mix of solid defense and potent offense.

But why didn’t we see them coming? Lynx head coach Cheryle Reeve hit the nail on the head with these comments:

"We didn't scare anybody," Reeve said. "I'm not sure that anybody at any point in the season was like, 'Yeah, they have a real shot at winning a championship' other than the people that are in our corner. And I think we're continuing to have to make believers."

Having watched them play all year, it seems crazy to think no one feared this team. But when you look at the makeup of their roster, you gain some perspective as to why: a lack of star power.

• Napheesa  Collier was a player on the rise, but not quite seen as the star she’s proven herself to be.

• Courtney Williams had bounced around the last couple of years after getting cut by Atlanta in 2021.

• Bridget Carleton was drafted by Connecticut in 2019 and cut after playing in just four games. She’s provided Minnesota with depth ever since.

• Alanna Smith started just one game in her first four seasons in the WNBA.

They may not have been impressive on their own, but together they are the heart of a team that has defeated New York three times this season and held them to under 80 points in three of four games.

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Liberty Preview

As a franchise, the Liberty has been like that one friend that serves as a bridesmaid in everyone’s wedding in your friend circle; the one that cringes every time she hears someone say,” Always a bridesmaid but never a bride,” as if she needed a reminder.

This season marks New York’s sixth trip to the WNBA Finals but hope to win the championship for the first time this year, after falling to the Las Vegas Aces in four games last year.

“We learned from our experience I think that’s a part of the journey,” New York coach Sandy Brondello said via the Washington Times. “It motivated us to be better.”

The WNBA’s version of a super team was constructed last season for that purpose by bringing in Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones, and Courtney Vandersloot to join Sabrina Ionescu and Betnijah Laney-Hamilton. While they fell short last season, they have become a more cohesive unit after playing together for another year.

But now they have to face the one team they’ve struggled with this season—the Minnesota Lynx. Will the desire to not feel the same way they felt after losing to the Aces in the Finals last year get them over the edge? We’ll find out, starting with Game 1, tonight.

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Lynx vs. Liberty Prediction

• My Pick: Minnesota +6 (-108) at FanDuel Sportsbook

New York is a great team, but so is Minnesota. But the Lynx do not seem to be getting the credit they deserve for playing as well as they have this season. Yes, the Liberty roster is stacked with talent, but not so much that New York should be a six-point favorite.

The Liberty very well may win this game, but there is a lot of value in betting on Minnesota, whether you go with the moneyline or point spread.

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How to Watch Lynx vs. Liberty

• Location: Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York

• Time and Date: 8 p.m. ET on Thursday, October 10

• Coverage: ESPN