New York Liberty vs. Minnesota Lynx Prediction & Betting Odds: WNBA Finals, Game 5

It comes down to this: win one game, become WNBA champions. Everything that came beforehand doesn’t matter, all the wins, all the losses, nothing; just this one game. Whoever wins Game 5 of the WNBA Finals, whether it’s the New York Liberty or Minnesota Lynx, will be the champions of the 2024 WNBA season.

Game 5 will take place in Brooklyn, New York, at the Barclays Center on Sunday at 8 p.m. ET. The Liberty opened as 5.5-point favorites, but the Lynx can be found at +6. Let’s take a look at the betting line for the game, our preview, and our prediction.

Lynx vs. Liberty Betting Odds for WNBA Finals, Game 5

For just the eighth time in WNBA Finals history, the series will be decided in Game 5. Of the previous seven, five were won by the home team. In three of those five, the winning team also won Game 4. Game 5 was won by the visiting team twice, but only once by the team that also won Game 4.

Here’s the betting line for Game 5 of the WNBA Finals, with the odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Place your bets at FanDuel and claim $300 in bonus bets.

Lynx vs. Liberty Preview

Game 5 will be the ninth game between the Liberty and Lynx this year, regular season and post. New York was favored in all of them, but Minnesota went 3-1 SU and ATS in the four regular season matchups and is 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS in the WNBA Finals.

The OVER is 2-2 in the Finals and 2-2 in the regular season (including the Commissioner’s Cup game).

Lynx Preview

The popular storyline for the WNBA Finals has been, ‘Will they or won’t they?’ Will the New York Liberty make history by winning the franchise’s first championship? As the last of the WNBA’s founding teams not to have won a title, some would say it's long overdue.

However, Liberty is not the only team with a shot at making history.

New York is tied with the defunct Houston Comets and the Seattle Storm for most WNBA championships with four. A win in Game 5 Sunday night will give them a record-setting fifth title. The last time a team came from being down 2-1 to win a championship was in 2017. That team?

The Minnesota Lynx.

After Gamer 4, it was clear that the Lynx were excited and looking forward to Sunday’s decisive Game 5. Kayla McBride had this to say:

“Last 40 minutes of the season, it could be anywhere, really, it doesn't matter. We’re going to be out there together going to war and I’m pumped.”

The key to a win in Game 5 is to do what they did in Game 4: take Breanna Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu out of the picture as much as possible. New York’s dynamic duo were 10-36 from the floor (0-9 from three-point range) for 21 points.

“I think we’re excited,” Napheesa Collier said. “It’s a Game 5 of the Finals. We have to go out and execute.”

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Liberty Preview

The WNBA Finals have been about perseverance and bouncing back after a tough loss. Both teams have had to overcome double-digit deficits to win: Minnesota in Game 1 and New York in Game 3. 

When it looked like the Lynx would do it again in Game 2, the Liberty closed the game with a 12-point run to secure the win.

Following a loss in Game 3 courtesy of a Sabrina Ionescu three-point buzzer beater, the Lynx came through with two free throws in the final seconds to win Game 4. So, if the pattern holds, does that mean we’ll see New York win in dramatic fashion in Game 5?

When speaking with the media after Game 4, Breanna Stewart said:

"We bounce back after a loss really, really well, and making sure that everybody is on the same page going forward. In the playoffs, in a series, there's going to be momentum shifts. There were momentum shifts in the game tonight."

The team needs to bounce back if it wants to win a championship for the first time in franchise history. But Stewart needs to bounce back on an individual level, too. She shot 5-21 from the field, including 0-4 from three-point range, and scored a playoff-low 11 points.

But Stewart is not the only player who needs to bounce back. Stewart has not had a great series. She got off to a solid start with a 19-point effort in Game 1, but since then, she’s managed just 15, 13, and 10 points while making five of 18 three-pointers in those games (0-5 in Game 4).

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Lynx vs. Liberty Prediction

• My Pick: Minnesota Spread +5.5 (-106) at FanDuel 

If the first four games have shown us anything, it’s this: Game 5 will be a hard-fought, well-played, immensely entertaining game. Both teams will probably bring their best defensive effort, keeping the score from getting out of hand for either team.

As for who will win, it will probably be whoever takes the last shot. That’s who won Games 3 & 4, and there is no reason to think Game 5 will be any different. That, of course, means the final score will be within a couple of points, so…

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Lynx vs. Liberty Player Props

Breanna Stewart, O/U 20.5 Points at -114/-114 (odds via FanDuel)

Stewart will undoubtedly try to have the game of her life. Minnesota’s defense will try to make her have the most forgettable game of her life. With how well the Lynx have defended her in this series, we don’t think Stewart will lead the Liberty to their first title.

They could still win the game, of course, because Jones will take advantage of Minnesota’s focus on Stewart and Ionescu for a big day on the scoreboard. She just will not score 20 points. Take the UNDER.

Napheesa Collier, O/U 20.5 Points at -110/-118 (odds via FanDuel)

Collier has gone over this total twice in the Finals and under it. New York will likely apply a similar strategy as Minnesota—take the top offensive threat(s) out of the game and force the role players to beat you. The Liberty held her to under 20.5 points in three of the four regular-season meetings.

New York’s defense has done it before, and we think they’ll do it again in Game 5.

Sabrina Ionescu, O/U 17.5 Points at +105/-135 (odds via FanDuel)

It has been a relatively quiet series for Ionescu. At this point, we don’t expect her to do much more than she has been. Take the UNDER.

Jonquel Jones, O/U  16.5 Points at -120/-108 (odds via FanDuel)

She’s gone over 14.5 twice in the series and under it. The Lynx will undoubtedly try to take Stwart and Ionescu out of the game as much as possible. If the Minnesota defense does its job, the door will be wide open for Jones to have another 20+ point night (like in Games 1 and 4).

Take the OVER or UNDER, depending on how well you think the Lynx defense will play vs. Stewart and Ionescu.

Jonquel Jones, WNBA Finals MVP +1200 (odds via FanDuel)

Stewart, as the face of the franchise and the team’s leading scorer, is the obvious choice. But depending on how Game 5 plays out, she may not be the most deserving on the Liberty roster. Stewart is averaging a double-double with 20 points and 10 rebounds per game.

But Jones has put up comparable numbers (18 points, 8 rebounds), and she has played better defense (98.2 rating for Games 1-4; Stewart’s rating, 102.4, highest among Liberty players averaging 30+ minutes per game). If she leads the team in scoring again, she’ll deserve MVP over Stewart.

Napheesa Collier, WNBA Finals MVP +280 (odds via FanDuel)

• Kayla McBride, WNBA Finals MVP +5000

• Courtney Williams, WNBA Finals MVP +2200

If Minnesota wins, Collier is the obvious choice. She is the unquestioned leader of the team and its best player. But New York has kept her from taking over games, which opens the door for Kayla McBride and Williams. Both have been the team’s highest scorer in a game once but average less than Collier.

Williams has the best defensive rating of the three.

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How to Watch Liberty vs. Lynx

• Location: Barclays Center in Brooklyn, NY

• Time and Date: 8 p.m. ET on Sunday, October 20

• Coverage: ESPN