New York Liberty vs. Minnesota Lynx Prediction & Betting Odds: WNBA Finals, Game 4

The New York Liberty will try to close out the series with a win over the Minnesota Lynx in Game 4 of the WNBA Finals on Friday night at the Target Center in Minneapolis. New York opened as a 3-point favorite, but some sportsbooks have the spread at -2.5.

With a dramatic win in Gamer 3, the Liberty hold a 2-1 lead in the series, making this an elimination game for the Minnesota Lynx.

Liberty vs. Lynx Betting Odds for WNBA Finals, Game 4

The WNBA Finals were decided 3-1 in the last three seasons and five of 19 since the WNBA Finals expanded to a best-of-five series in 2005. Eight of 19 went the distance, 3-2; the last was the 2019 Finals, where the Washington Mystics took down the Connecticut Sun, 3-2.

Throughout the WNBA’s history, the No. 1 seed has won the WNBA Championship in 20 of 27 seasons and in three of the last five seasons.

Here is the betting line from FanDuel Sportsbook for Game 3 where new users can get $300 in bonus bets by placing a $5 winning wager of the WNBA Finals.

Liberty vs. Lynx Preview

Minnesota has dominated the all-time series with New York, winning 33 of 55 matchups. They won the regular season series this year. 3-1, including the Commissioner’s Cup. Including the playoffs, they have split the last ten games, with each team winning five straight up and against the spread.

This year marks the second consecutive season in which the two teams that played for the Commissioner’s Cup met in the WNBA Finals. Last season, the Commissioner’s Cup loser went on to win the WNBA Championship, so the Liberty are hoping history repeats itself.

Even though they were two of the highest-scoring teams in the league this year, the OVER went only 3-3 in the regular season (2-1) and postseason (1-2) games between these two teams.

Liberty Preview

Always a bridesmaid (runner-up) but never the bride (WNBA champion).

That’s been the story for New York Liberty, which has been to the WNBA Finals on five previous occasions, including four of the first six WNBA Finals in league history. They were in the augural title game (1997) vs. the Houston Comets, and last year’s Finals won by the Las Vegas Aces (3-1)

The 1999 series was the closest they’ve come to winning. That was the second year for the expanded WNBA Finals, a best-of-three series; the Liberty won Game 2, giving them a chance to win the title in Game 3 (which Houston won).

Minnesota is the only team to appear in the WNBA Finals more than New York. The Liberty has the distinction of being the last original member of the league still playing in its inaugural city to have not won a title.

It has been anything but easy, and it certainly isn’t a lock for the Liberty. While they got out to significant leads in Games 1 and 2, the Lynx roared back to win Game 1 in OT and got within a basket in Game 2 before the Liberty finished the game on a 12-0 run. Game 3 saw the script flipped, as they were behind for most of the game.

The Lynx will not lay down and just hand the Liberty the title. Breanna Stewart is expecting Minnesota’s best shot:

"We know we're one game away from winning the championship, and I think that they are going to give us their best shot," Stewart said. "They are going to give everything they have got, and you know what, so are we…"

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Lynx Preview

Minnesota has to be a little frustrated. Had one or two plays gone differently, they could have been looking to lock up the franchise’s fifth title Friday night. But instead, they have to fight off elimination and try to win Game 5 in New York on Sunday.

Lynx head coach Cheryl Reeve had this to say after the loss in Game 3:

“…We're disappointed -- we're home, we played well and just couldn't come up with the win.

We have to dust ourselves off and get another crack at it here at home. We'll see what we can do on Friday."

However, Minnesota may actually have New York right where they want them. In four of the team’s previous trips to the WNBA Finals, they fell behind the series 1-2 after three games. They succeeded in forcing a Game 5 in three and went on to win the WNBA Finals in two.

They’ve been in it up until the final moments of every game. The Lynx just need a bounce or two to go their way.

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Liberty vs. Lynx Prediction

• My Pick: Minnesota +3 at FanDuel

Minnesota should not be overlooked in this game. A win for the Liberty would put the perfect storybook finish on a historic season for the WNBA. But Minnesota’s players want to win just as badly as New York’s. The desire to avoid elimination may actually give them a slight edge.

As close as these games have been, it would not be shocking if the desire to avoid elimination at home pushed Minnesota over the top.

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Liberty vs. Lynx Player Props

Breanna Stewart, O/U 20.5 Points at -122/-106 at FanDuel

This game will go one of two ways for Stewart: (1) she’s going to be in the zone and lead her team to victory with another big night, locking up the title and WNBA Finals MVP, or (2) Minnesota knows they can’t let Stewart do whatever she wants. So, they will take her out of the game and dare Sabrina Ionescu to lead the team to victory.

Ionescu is capable, but we don’t see it happening. We’re leaning toward the UNDER this time.

Sabrina Ionescu, O/U 17.5 Points at -110/-118 at FanDuel

It would be just like Ionescu to blow up and have a big night after having a few lackluster ones in a row, especially if the Lynx try to take Stewart out of the game. But we just don’t see her scoring over 17.5 points without the game going into overtime. Take the UNDER.

Napheesa Collier, O/U 20.5 Points at -118/-110 at FanDuel

Kayla McBride, O/U 13.5 Points at -118/-110 at FanDuel

The chance to secure a championship can bring out the best in players, but the desire to avoid elimination may be even stronger. If New York loses, they know they have another chance in Game 5. But if Minnesota loses, the season is over. 

For that reason, we expect to see Collier bring her ‘A+’ game in an effort to force Game 5. She’s gone OVER 20.5 points in five of her last six games and will not be denied in this one.

As for McBride, she’s either gone well over (22 in Game 1 and 19 in Game 3) her total or under it (eight points in Game 2). Collier can’t do it all by herself, and we like McBride to step up and help Collier force a Game 5 with a big night in Game 4.

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How to Watch Liberty vs. Lynx

• Location: Target Center in Minneapolis, MN

• Time and Date: 8 p.m. ET on Friday, October 18

• Coverage: ESPN