New York Liberty vs. Minnesota Lynx Prediction & Betting Odds: WNBA Finals, Game 3

The WNBA Finals get back underway on Wednesday when the New York Liberty take on the Minnesota Lynx at the Target Center in Minneapolis. After winning Game 2 by 14 points, the Liberty opened as the betting favorite to win Game 3 at -1.5.

Since both teams have a win, the series could end in Minneapolis with a new champion crowned after Game 4 on Friday night. But before that can happen, someone has to win Game 3. Let’s go over the betting line for the game, along with our betting preview and pick.

Liberty vs. Lynx Betting Odds for WNBA Finals, Game 3

Game 2 was technically not a must-win game for the New York Liberty, but it might as well have been considered one. No team has ever come back to win the WNBA Finals after falling behind 2-0, so it was essentially a must-win game for the Liberty.

Game 3 is, of course, not a must-win game for anyone, but the winner will have two chances to win one game. Here is the betting line from FanDuel Sportsbook for Game 3 where new users can get $300 in bonus bets by placing a $5 winning wager of the WNBA Finals.

Liberty vs. Lynx Preview

Now that we’ve seen New York take care of business, it is fair to wonder—will they do it again? Did we see the team in Game 2 that we expected in Game 1? Did they just need a wake-up call in Game 1, and since they got it, are they set to run the table?

It is easy to think the answer is ‘yes,’ but then you have to remember how well Minnesota has played. Yes, the Liberty were in control for most of both games. When it mattered most, they made enough plays in Game 1 to steal the win and almost made enough to do it again in Game 2.

But that was on New York’s home court; how will things go in Minnesota?

Liberty Preview

Rebounding from a tough loss like the Liberty had in Game 1 can be tough, but Breann Stewart made it clear where her head was with this comment: "The moment the game ended Thursday, I was looking forward to Sunday.”

Of course, it was the right thing to say, but in her case, Stewart backed it up. Stewart generated a solid stat line with 21 points, 8 rebounds, 5 assists, and a WNBA Finals record of 7 steals. Her defensive play helped the Liberty hold Minnesota star Napheesa Collier to 16 points and 8 rebounds (she also forced 7 turnovers).

But while Stewart played a significant role in the win, she was certainly not the only player to perform. Sabrina Ionescu followed up a strong performance in Game 1 (19 points) with 15 in Game 2. 

Betnijah Laney-Hamilton chipped in 20, and Jonquel Jones followed up her 24-point night in Game 1 with 14 in Game 2.

However, as important as having so many players chip in on the scoreboard was, New York’s defensive pressure was one of the keys to Game 2—especially since it seemed to get better as the game went on. Minnesota scored 21 in the first, 18 in the second, 14 in the third, and just 13 in the final period.

But like a well-oiled machine at home is one thing, but can they do so on the road?

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Lynx Preview

Minnesota has to be a little frustrated. Despite being behind for most of both games, the Lynx have been able to keep their heads in the game and locked in. Otherwise, there is no way they complete the record-setting comeback in Game 1 and nearly do it again in Game 2.

So, what happened in Game 2?

The loss can be attributed to several things. Napheesa Collier did not see the ball much early on and only had 12 shots on the night. The supporting cast picked up much of the scoring slack in Game 1 (Kayla McBride and Courtney Williams combined for 47 points). The rest of the starting five combined for 45 points in Game 2.

Collier, the team’s best player and one of the top scoring threats in the league, did not attempt a shot in the final 3:40 of Game 2 when Minnesota got shut out. If there was anyone that should have been fed the ball during that stretch, it’s her.

But the series is far from over. During the regular season, Minnesota had the No. 1 home defense in the WNBA.

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Liberty vs. Lynx Prediction

• My Pick: Lynx Under 160.5 (-112) at FanDuel

New York controlled Games 1 & 2 but failed to put the Lynx away, leaving a door open for them to stage a late comeback. Don’t count on that happening in this game. Instead, expect a close, hard-fought, back-and-forth game that will go down to the wire.

Who will win? That is a very good question and a hard one to answer with conviction. However, we expect the score to be more like Game 2 than 1. We’re leaning toward the UNDER.

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Liberty vs. Lynx Player Props

Breanna Stewart, O/U 21.5 Points at -110/-118 at FanDuel

Stewart scored 21 and 18 points in Games 1 & 2, but during the regular season, she averaged 25 against the Lynx. However, she was held to 20 points in the game played in Minneapolis. Based on how the playoffs have played out and with how tough Minnesota’s defense is at home, we want to take the UNDER.

However, it would not be shocking to see one of the league’s best players step up to the challenge on the game’s biggest stage. The Head says take the UNDER but the Heart says take the OVER.

Sabrina Ionescu,  O/U 18.5 Points at +100/-130 at FanDuel

• O/U 2.5 Made Threes at -136/+102 at FanDuel

Ionescu’s scoring is often reflective to how well she shoots from three-point range. She hit 3+ three-pointers in six of eight games and scored 19+ in five. Minnesota allowed opponents to hit just 30.1% of three-point attempts this season. She made two of six attempts during the regular season game in Minneapolis.

We expect this game to be similar to that one for Ionescu. Take the UNDER (for both).

Napheesa Collier, O/U 20.5 Points at -110/-118 at FanDuel

Collier is Minnesota's best scoring threat, which is precisely why the Liberty will have the defense focused on stopping her. She needed overtime to score 21 points in Game 1 and only had 16 in Game 2. In the regular-season home game vs. New York, she was held to 15. 

We expect her to score about the same in Game 3. Take the UNDER.

Courtney Williams, O/U 13.5 Points at -113/-115 at FanDuel

After averaging just over 11 points per game in the regular season, Williams has upped her game in the Finals with 23 and 15 points in Games 1 & 2. We think she’ll continue to be productive as the Liberty defense will be more concerned with keeping Napheesa Collier in check. Take the OVER.

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How to Watch Liberty vs. Lynx

• Location: Minneapolis, Minnesota

• Time and Date: 8:00 PM ET, Wednesday, Oct. 16

• Coverage: ESPN