With how well she has played in college, especially during her last season when she was busy breaking records, it is hard not to imagine her playing well in the NBA. But there are several factors to consider when projecting how well her transition to the WNBA goes:
The talent level in the WNBA will be much more competitive than in college.
The team will have the inevitable growing pains under second-year head coach Christie Sides.
She will probably not take nearly 40% of the shots for the Fever as she did for the Hawkeyes.
But Caitlin Clark could have an exceptional season if her talents translate to the WNBA and head coach Christie Sides features her in the offense.
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Let’s review several of the Caitlin Clark WNBA specials listed at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Clark didn’t have much competition for shots in college, making it easy for her to average 32 ppg. But that will not be the case in the WNBA. Guard Kelsey Mitchell (the No. 2 pick in the 2018 Draft) led the team in scoring last season (18.2 ppg).
It would not be surprising to see last year’s No. 1 draft pick and rookie of the year winner, Aliyah Boston, become a more significant part of the game plan (14.5 ppg in 2023). NaLyssa Smith, the No. 2 pick in the 2022 draft, was second on the team in scoring last season (15.5 ppg).
Our Pick: Pass
In her final college season, over 60% of Clark’s shot attempts were three-pointers. It would almost be shocking if her first basket weren’t from behind the arc. The odds give this prop a 60% chance, but you must also consider that she made just 38% of her threes.
Our Pick: Pass; no value.
Since she averaged 32 points per game in college, surely she can average 22 points per game during her rookie season in the WNBA—right? Don’t count on it. Three rookies have averaged 20+ points per game in the past, but of those three, only one averaged 22+ (Cynthia Cooper-Dyke in 1997, 22.18 ppg). She only took 406 shots and made 41.36% of her three-pointers.
You must also factor in her sharing the court with three former top draft picks.
Our Pick: Pass; no value.
In her last two seasons in college, she made 140 and 193 three-pointers in 38 and 37 games. The 2024 WNBA regular season will have 40 games. Last season, Sabrina Ionescu set the WNBA single-season record with 128 made three-pointers (36 games).
Only four players have ever averaged 3+ three-pointers per game in a season.
If Clark can live up to the hype and the Fever features her in the offense, there is a chance she hits that mark. But at -115, there isn’t much value.
Our Pick: Pass
Most of her shots are three-pointers, but she misses quite a few. It would not be shocking to see her miss a three-pointer, grab the rebound, and then cut to the basket for a layup. Everyone will want to see her hit a three-pointer, but it may be more realistic to think her first made shot will be a layup.
Our Pick: Yes (but keep your stake small)
In the history of the WNBA, there have been 31 triple-doubles (recorded by 14 players). A rookie/first-year player has never recorded one. She may become the first rookie to record one but don’t count on her recording three.
Our Pick: Pass
Clark is a solid three-point shooter, and we can probably count on her throwing up plenty of shots from behind the arc in every game. But if she only plays in 28 games, there are 28 chances for bettors to lose this one. If she plays in all 40 games, even more.
The last time she failed to hit at least one three-pointer in a game was during an early January game during her sophomore season (also the only game of her college career without a three).
Our Pick: Yes (bonus bet only)
Three players hold the record at nine, Jewell Loyd being the last to hit that mark last season. When you consider the volume of three-pointers Clark is likely to shoot, and as good as she’s been in college, it is not hard to imagine her hitting ten in a single game.
The long odds and the promise of a nice payday make this one intriguing.
Our Pick: Yes (bonus bet only)
For Clark to hit either mark, we are not only saying she’ll set a new single-game rookie record (no rookie has had a 50-point game; Cynthia Cooper-Duke holds the record at 44 on July 25, 1999), but she’ll set an all-time WNBA mark.
Possible? Of course, anything is possible. But probable?
Our Pick: Maybe (bonus bet only)
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