Australian Open Predictions: First Grand Slam Tournament of the Season

• Sinner looks to defend the title, but Medvedev record warrants respect

• Sabalenka a worthy favorite in women’s singles draw

• Two potential R1 upsets to consider

The first Grand Slam tournament of the season gets underway on Sunday in Melbourne with Jannik Sinner and Aryna Sabalenka looking to defend their titles.

The Australian Open’s early-season calendar slot has resulted in some surprise winners and finalists over the years, although that trend hasn’t been seen so much recently with Novak Djokovic having dominated the men’s event, winning it 10 times. An 11th title in 2025 would see him break the all-time record for Grand Slam singles titles (men and women).

On the women’s side, Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek have stood above the rest in the past couple of years but American star Coco Gauff will be looking to break their duopoly, just as she did at the 2023 US Open.

Australian Open Men’s Singles Picks

Most Likely Winner – Jannik Sinner (+135 at BetRivers)

I’m not sure there’s much value in his price but Sinner still rates the most likely winner. He was clearly the world’s best player last season, losing only six of 79 matches, as he captured both this title and the US Open (also played on a hardcourt surface). Is a good tactician, possesses plenty of power, and strong mental fortitude - the latter may well help when it comes to the constant questions over his pending drugs case at the Court of Arbitration for Sport. Also avoided his two main rivals - Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic - in the draw.

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Contender – Daniil Medvedev (+1800 at BetRivers)

Holds a great record at this tournament, having played in three of the last four finals. Sadly, for the Russian, he’s yet to lift the trophy but he’ll be at home on the GreenSet courts, whose higher-than-average pace will suit his unorthodox, mix-it-up game style. 2024 wasn’t the best for Medvedev - he didn’t win a title - but a winter reset should refresh him. The early indications are good with Medvedev cutting a confident figure at his pre-tournament press conference when he said people could expect “to see a lot of interesting things from me”. Looks overpriced.

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Outsider – Tommy Paul (+11000 at FanDuel)

Paul looks in a fairly open quarter, one which is headed up by second seed Alex Zverev. However, the German looks opposable given he picked up a biceps injury at the recent United Cup. Paul made the semi-finals in Melbourne two years ago and he started this season with a run to the last four in Adelaide. Loves the hardcourts and has the potential to make waves.

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Potential R1 Upset – Jan-Lennard Struff to Beat Felix Auger-Aliassime (+146 at FanDuel)

I remember taking on Auger-Aliassime in the first round of the US Open and claiming a decent winner. Opposing the Canadian in his opening match of a Grand Slam has often proved a good approach - he has now lost at that stage in 11 of his 22 appearances at the top level, including five of the last seven. Even in victory, FAA has often struggled early on with only three of those 22 R1 matches being won in straight sets. That brings the handicap lines into play. Struff has won two of the pair’s previous four meetings, including one in Australia, and his flat-hitting game is more than capable of troubling a player whose run to the final in Adelaide will mean he will have little time to get used to the different conditions in Melbourne.

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Australian Open Women’s Singles Picks

Most Likely Winner – Aryna Sabalenka (+240 at FanDuel)

The two-time defending champion looks the player they all have to beat. Sabalenka victory at September’s US Open means she’s now won three of the last four Grand Slams to be staged on a hardcourt. It’s a surface where her big serve and crunching groundstokes get great cut-through, while the mental side of her game has improved massively in the past couple of seasons - you don’t get to number one in the world with a weak mindset. Warmed up for this event with a title in Brisbane. Should take all the beating.

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Contender – Madison Keys (+5000 at BetRivers)

Keys is cut from a similar cloth as Sabalenka - huge groundstrokes and a strong first serve make her very difficult to beat when she’s on song. The problem is her consistency, or lack of it, and there is admittedly every chance that she throws in an error-strewn performance at some stage. That said, she has had deep runs at Slams before, especially on hardcourts. Here, she was a smei-finalist in both 2022 and 2015, while she’s also finished runner-up at the US Open. Has hit the ground running in 2025, with a quarter-final run in Auckland and making the final in Adelaide. Certainly has potential.

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Outsider – Yulia Putintseva (+20000 at BetRivers)

Posted numerous wins over top-20 players on hardcourts last season and has already taken down two more in 2025 - Donna Vekic and Diana Shnaider in Adelaide where she made the semis. Kept Jessica Pegula honest in that match, while Aryna Sabalenka was also made to work hard for her win over Putintseva in Brisbane. Made need to avoid the best players but she’s already had some luck on that front, landing in what looks the weaker half of the draw.

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Potential R1 Upset – Caroline Garcia to Beat Naomi Osaka (+360 with FanDuel)

These two met three times last season with Garcia winning twice, including here at the Australian Open. The reason for Garcia’s odds appears to be the fact she’s not played since September, while Osaka has already started her season, making the final in Auckland. However, she quit that match due to an abdominal strain, one an MRI scan showed “wasn’t fantastic” which isn’t exactly ideal, while you have to wonder how Osaka is mentally too given she has just announced a break-up with the father of her child. Garcia’s brand of first-strike tennis has troubled Osaka before and may do so again. She might be rusty but looks worth backing at the price.

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How to Watch the 2025 Australian Open

• Event: Australian Open

• Location: Melbourne Park, Melbourne, Australia

• Time: Sunday, January 12 to Sunday, January 26

• How to Watch: ESPN and Tennis Channel