ATP Tour Cagliari & Marbella Predictions, Betting Odds & Picks

• Coria too good on clay for Millman
• Cerundolo can oust fellow Argentine
• Fabbiano has outsider potential

Federico Coria to beat John Millman 2-0 at +108 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Francisco Cerundolo to beat Facundo Bagnis at -120 at  BetRivers

Thomas Fabbiano to beat Marco Cecchinato at +300 at bet365

Albert Ramos-Vinolas to win the Andalucia Open at +1200 at BetRivers

How to Watch ATP Cagliari and Marbella

Federico Coria vs John Millman

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It’s usually wise to turn to the ‘proper’ dirt ballers at the start of the claycourt season and so backing Coria in this one makes much sense.

He’s the clay expert of these two with Millman probably already relishing a return to faster surfaces. The Australian is just 11-19 at tour-level on clay, losing five of his last six, the only win in that sequence coming against a lucky loser. He also arrives in poor overall form having claimed only one win from his six matches in 2021 – and that was against a player ranked outside the top 400.

In contrast, Coria has already made an ATP semi-final on clay this season, in Cordoba. He may be the lower-ranked player in this contest but on this surface, he looks the better player, and a straight-sets win for the Argentine looks a steady wager.

Facundo Bagnis vs Francisco Cerundolo

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These two were both stars of the South American claycourt swing recently.

Bagnis made the final in Santiago and the semis in Cordoba, while Cerundolo made his maiden ATP final in Buenos Aires, that after playing in a Challenger final in Chile a couple of weeks prior. A first glance, those results may suggest Bagnis has a slightly better form but it is important to read into where each player’s results came.

Bagnis’s two good events were both played at a significant altitude, while Cerundolo’s two finals were both basically played at sea level. Bagnis lost early in Buenos Aires without the aid of the thinner air.

Throw in the fact that Cerundolo won their only previous meeting – in straight sets on clay at a Brazilian Challenger last year – and he looks a worthy favorite here at -120.

Marco Cecchinato vs Thomas Fabbiano

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This column has picked out some decent-priced underdogs in its first few weeks. There’s nothing on that front that stands out particularly this week but for those seeking a long shot, taking Fabbiano at +300 makes some appeal.

Admittedly the suggestion is based more on the woes of his opponent than any form of Fabbiano.

Cecchinato famously once made the semi-finals of the French Open – he knows how to play on clay – but he has lost nine of his last 10 matches at tour level so confidence must be at a low ebb. He went 1-3 on the clay in South America recently so those results have not been confined to his least favored surfaces.

He did make the final of this event in Sardinia last season, although that tournament was played in October and at a different venue to this one in Cagliari. With Fabbiano having won three of four meetings with his compatriot, he may be worth chancing at +300.

Best Outright Pick – ATP Marbella

Turning to the Futures markets, Albert Ramos-Vinolas holds good title claims in Marbella this week.

The Spaniard is already bedded in on clay having made the final in Cordoba and the semi-finals in Buenos Aires during the recent clay swing in South America.

That’s in contrast to the market leaders, Casper Ruud and Pablo Carreno Busta, both of whom have suffered injury problems of late – neither has played a match since withdrawing from their last tournament and both will be stepping onto the clay for the first time since the autumn.

Few in this field have competed here before – it’s not a regular stop on the ATP Tour – but Ramos-Vinolas also has that advantage having played (and won two matches) at the Club de Tennis Puente Romano for the Spanish Davis Cup team in the past.

The fourth seed looks worth backing at +1200.