ATP Los Cabos, Gstaad & Umag Predictions, Odds & Picks

• Lopez the wrong outsider in Gstaad
• Marchenko odds look too big
• Tie-break beckons in Mexico clash
• Albot overpriced to beat Rune

ATP Los Cabos, Gstaad & Umag Picks

Feliciano Lopez to beat Marc-Andrea Huesler at +110 at William Hill

Ilya Marchenko to beat Peter Gojowcyzk at +120 at William Hill

Over 12.5 games in first set of Jordan Thompson v Ivo Karlovic at +175 at bet365

Radu Albot to beat Holger Rune at +251 at PointsBet

Laslo Djere to win the Swiss Open at +1400 at BetMGM

How to Watch ATP Los Cabos, Gstaad & Umag

Marc-Andrea Huesler vs Feliciano Lopez

Odds taken from William Hill. Click on the links in the table below to head to the sportsbook, sign-up, and place your bet!

Huesler looks the wrong favorite here.

He’s the local boy but the fact is he’s played only one tour-level match this year (and lost it 6-1 6-3), while he’s struggled for wins at Challenger level too.

The 25-year-old has only managed to win back-to-back matches twice in 2021, while his best win, in ranking terms, has come against the world number 109.

Lopez is ranked inside the top 100 but of most relevance is his strong record in Gstaad – he won here in 2016 and has six other efforts of quarter-finals or better on the CV.

His big left-handed serve is given extra pop by the altitude and I expect it to deliver him a victory for his backers at odds-against.

Peter Gojowczyk vs Ilya Marchenko

Odds taken from William Hill. Click on the links in the table below to head to the sportsbook, sign-up, and place your bet!

These are two players who play their best tennis indoors but they’ll have the sun on their backs this week in Los Cabos.

It’s been a struggle in recent years for both to win outdoors at this level but I’m a bit surprised to see Marchenko at +120 for victory in this.

He’s won plenty of matches indoors at tour-level this season, including a Challenger final against Andy Murray.

The injury-prone Gojowczyk loves to come forward but the slowish hardcourts here won’t help his natural game and Marchenko has the ability to take advantage.

He was beaten in round one by Kevin Anderson on the Newport grass last week but his performance – five breakpoints created, none taken; a single break of serve deciding both sets – should give him encouragement given Anderson went on to win the title.

Jordan Thompson vs Ivo Karlovic

Odds taken from bet365. Click on the links in the table below to head to the sportsbook, sign-up, and place your bet!

The words tie-break and Karlovic go hand in hand and this looks a decent chance to back one in the first set.

These two have played 13 sets in the past and six of them have finished 7-6. Another went to 12-10 in the decider – had that been played here it would have been another tie-break.

Across those four matches, Karlovic has broken serve in just 7% of Thompson’s service games, while the Aussie has broken his Croatian foe’s serve only 8% of the time.

Those are stats strong enough to suggest +175 about another in the first set here is overpriced.

Veteran Karlovic is admittedly still feeling his way back after a period out but he’s managed to get matches under his belt on grass and last week in Newport played opening-set tie-breaks in both of his matches.

Conditions won’t suit his massive serve so much in Los Cabos but that booming delivery will still be able to cut through the court (Karlovic won here in 2016).

Thompson’s serve is certainly strong enough to hold sway against a returner as poor as Karlovic and so the +175 is worth backing.

Holger Rune vs Radu Albot

Odds taken from bet365. Get up to $100 in FREE credits at bet365 today!

Albot has been enduring a miserable time on the ATP Tour of late and must be relishing a return to the hardcourts after his travails on clay and grass.

However, he’s still on the red dirt this week in Umag, taking on rising star Rune, who I can’t have as a -345 chance.

The youngster has only won two of seven matches at tour level this season, both in Santiago in March, and while he’s enjoyed plenty of success on the Challenger Tour, the Albot price just looks too big.

The pair met in Bastad only last week and while Rune did end up winning in three sets, he had to come from a set down to do so.

Yes, Albot deserves to start as the outsider but at +265 he looks a value bet.

Round Two Upsets?

This week’s three ATP tournaments all give first-round byes to their top four seeds and there’s potential value to be had in some of their opening matches.

First up, Sam Querrey is the fourth seed in Los Cabos but the Futures market suggests he may well be going off as the underdog against Brandon Nakashima, should they meet.

With Querrey having rediscovered his form on grass and now heading onto the Solflex courts of Mexico, on which he won the title in 2017, that pricing could well be wrong.

Meanwhile, the title favourite in Gstaad, Casper Ruud, has a potentially tricky opener.

Yannick Hanfmann is a player who has delivered good results at altitude in the past and the German would likely pose a test should the pair meet.

Ruud won the title in Bastad at the weekend but that was down at sea level. He has to head above 1,000m for this event where the balls will fly through the thinner air and prove more difficult to control.

Hanfmann is likely to go off a big price and might be a spot of value.

Best Outright pick

Four top-20 stars compete in the Swiss Open in Gstaad this week but world number 57 Laslo Djere looks a decent price to cause an upset.

He made the semi-finals in Hamburg last week to prove his form and he’s also a former semi-finalist at this event, showing he’s got the ability to get results at altitude.

Further evidence of this weas provided in Kitzbuhel last season where he claimed the notable scalps of Diego Schwartzman, Albert Ramos-Vinolas and Jannik Sinner en route to the last four.

He’s in the bottom half alongside Cristian Garin, who disappointed in Bastad last week, and Roberto Bautista Agut, who hasn’t been past the last 16 of any claycourt tournament this year.

Odds of +1400 make appeal.