ATP Hamburg and Gstaad: Ramos-Vinolas Expected to Do Well This Week

• Dutch delight beckons
• Take a chance on Ruusuvuori
• Rublev can bash Bublik

ATP Hamburg and Gstaad Picks

Tallon Griekspoor to beat Holger Rune at +138 at FanDuel

Emil Ruusuvuori to beat Diego Schwartzman at +184 at FanDuel

Andrey Rublev to beat Alexander Bublik 2-0 at -160 at FanDuel

Albert Ramos-Vinolas to win the Swiss Open at +1400 at Caesars Sportsbook and +1400 at BetMGM

This column found two underdog winners from three bets last week and the search for another begins in Hamburg where Griekspoor looks overpriced.

The Dutch star won a record eight titles on the Challenger Tour in 2021, the majority on clay, and has made the transition to the main tour well so far this season.

Notably, he returned to the Challenger circuit last week and duly won his home event in Amersfoort so is in decent form.

While some will suggest the quick turnaround won’t be good for his chances this week, I’d beg to differ.

The short trip across Northern Europe shouldn’t be too much of an issue and conditions won’t be considerably different.

Three of Griekspoor’s five matches in his homeland were straight-sets affair so he didn’t have to expend too much energy and, in any case, his first serve won him plenty of points – he was only broken four times across those five encounters.

Rune is undoubtedly being priced up on his clay form of a couple of months ago – the Dane won in Munich and was a quarter-finalist at the French Open where he ended Stefanos Tsitsipas’ title hopes.

However, he’s lost his last four matches with any hopes that a clay return would bring a reversal of fortune proving way off the mark last week in Bastad where he was beaten by qualifier Marc Andrea Huesler in straight sets.

He struggled on return, being aced 10 times in as many games and only breaking the Swiss’ serve once.

It’s not easy to turn the switch back on after a long period without a win and I think Griekspoor has a good chance to add to Rune’s problems in this one.

Emil Ruusuvuori vs Diego Schwartzman

All is not well with the Schwartzman game at the moment.

The Argentine was crushed 6-1 6-0 by Pablo Carreno Busta in his first match in Bastad last week as his underwhelming clay season continued.

He also won just three games against Grigor Dimitrov in Madrid, while Rome brought a surprise defeat to Marcos Giron.

Losing to Novak Djokovic at the French Open was no disgrace but the manner of his 6-1 6-3 6-3 defeat was again disappointing.

The grass season further dimmed confidence and Schwartzman arrives in Hamburg – a venue at which he has a pretty poor 4-4 win-loss record – having lost five of his last seven matches.

Ruusuvuori may be able to take advantage.

The Finn lost their only previous meeting, at Indian Wells earlier this year, in three sets but with Schwartzman’s form having dipped off late, he could well turn the tables here.

He only lost to Dominic Thiem 7-6 in the third last week and Schwartzman will need to improve considerably from his own effort in Bastad.

Admittedly, Ruusuvuori is missing big clay wins on his CV but a look at the pair’s data on the surface this season gives him plenty of hope.

Ruusuvuori has held in 68% of his service games and broken in 35% of his opponents’. His combined ‘total’ of 103 is only one shy of Schwartzman’s.

Expect plenty of breaks of serve in this one with Ruusuvuori looking a tempting price of +184.

Alexander Bublik vs Andrey Rublev

The bizarre schedule of Bublik may well catch up with him in this one.

After losing in the third round of Wimbledon, he continued his grasscourt season by crossing the Atlantic and duly made the final in Newport, Rhode Island.

However, that match took place on Sunday, finishing at 1800 local time (2300 in Hamburg).

The Kazakh, who lost the contest in a final-set tie-break, might get a Wednesday start here but even if he does that’s hardly leaving a great deal of time to acclimatise to the clay again.

And it’s not as if the move from grass to clay will come naturally to Bublik – he’s a player who has long bemoaned having to compete on the dirt and you sense that a trip to Hamburg might just be a stopping point on his way back home given he’s not due to play next week.

Second-seed Rublev should be good enough to win this whatever state Bublik turns up in.

He played himself back in some sort of form in Bastad last week, reaching the semi-finals, so should be dialled in on the surface again.

He’s won all three of the pair’s tour-level meetings, losing just one set in the process. All of those matches came on indoor hard, a surface which, in theory, should give Bublik a greater chance than clay.

Another straight-sets win for Rublev here is odds-on at -160 but that’s a price which still looks worth backing.

Round Two Upset?

Matteo Berrettini returns to action at this week’s Swiss Open in Gstaad where he will look to put the disappointment of missing Wimbledon behind him.

The Italian was the second favorite for the title when struck down by COVID in London so it must have been a real blow.

Even if we assume Berrettini is over that setback both physically and mentally, the fact is he’s not played a match for a month now, while he’s managed only two on clay in more than a year.

Whoever he faces first up could cause problems. It will be either Richard Gasquet or Roberto Carballes Baena.

I favor the latter to progress given his strong record at altitude – they will be playing 1,000m above sea level in the Alps.

That factor will add to the potential for problems for Berrettini, who may well be worth taking on.

Best Futures Pick

Albert Ramos-Vinolas is another player who enjoys playing at altitude where ball control is key in the thinner air.

Seven of his 11 ATP finals have come at a significant height above sea level and so I’d expect him to go well in Gstaad this week.

He’s a former champion at the event, winning it in 2019, while earlier this season he won at another altitude venue, Cordoba.

This week he’s in the same half of the draw as defending chasmpion Casper Ruud but he does hold a strong head-to-head record against the Norwegian, winning three of their four claycourt matches.

At +1400 at Caesars Sportsbook, Ramos-Vinolas looks like a value wager.

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