ATP Florence & Gijon: Lorenzo Sonego Is on Home Soil in Florence This Week

• Griekspoor can add to Karatsev’s woes
• Giron looks too strong
• Gasquet has underdog potential
• Home comforts for Sonego

ATP Florence & Gijon Picks

Tallon Griekspoor & Marcos Giron moneyline parlay at +142 at bet365

Richard Gasquet to beat Brandon Nakashima at +200 at Caesars Sportsbook

Lorenzo Sonego to win the Firenze Open at +1000 at PointsBet

Griekspoor beat Karatsev indoors in Rotterdam earlier this season and can repeat the trick here.

The Dutchman, who won on the Challenger Tour indoors last autumn, played well with a roof over his head in the recent Davis Cup Finals group stage as he helped Netherlands progress and while results since haven’t been great, he still seems in a better place right now than Karatsev.

The Russian has lost nine of his last 10 matches, including three out of three during this indoor swing.

His overall record indoors is also patchy, to say the least.

Karatsev is now 7-16 at the tour level in such matches, four of those victories coming during a title run in his homeland.

To conclude, Griekspoor looks like a worthy favorite.

Marcos Giron vs Albert Ramos-Vinolas

Ramos-Vinolas is another player who has traditionally struggled indoors and his record during this autumn indoor campaign in recent years is grim.

He’s lost his last eight such matches with his last main-draw win coming in Antwerp back in 2018.

Giron has no such problems.

He made the semis in Dallas earlier this season, while last autumn he made the last four in Sofia indoors before winning four matches at the Paris Masters – qualifying before reaching the last 16.

He achieved the same feat in 2020 – when Ramos-Vinolas was one of his victims – and he was also a quarter-finalist in Antwerp that year.

That’s some contrast between the pair and I’m surprised Giron isn’t shorter.

The recommendation is to double him up in a parlay with Griekspoor at around +140.

Richard Gasquet vs Brandon Nakashima

This column picked out a decent underdog last week in James Duckworth, who duly won a set against eventual Tokyo champion Taylor Fritz to land our suggested wager.

A look at this week’s first-round coupon isn’t so encouraging but one player I think may have a chance at a decent price is Gasquet, albeit he’s not a massively confident pick.

The Frenchman has delivered a lot of his best results indoors over the years.

Of his nine titles won in the past 10 years, six have come with a roof over his head, while there have been three other final appearances inside during that period.

Since the US Open, he’s been playing in France, largely on the Challenger Tour, and while the wins haven’t been flowing as he’d have liked, the point is he’s very much in tune with indoor conditions right now.

Nakashima is very much not.

He was the champion in San Diego just over a fortnight ago and last week played in Tokyo, losing in round two to Borna Coric.

Now on his third continent in 15 days, the travelling could be catching up with a player who doesn’t have any record of note indoors; indeed this will be just his second such tournament this season – he lost to Jordan Thompson in Dallas in his only other one back in February.

For those seeking a big price, Gasquet is worth considering at +200.

Round Two Upsets?

We’re back to 28-man fields in Gijon and Florence this week which means the top four seeds get first-round byes.

So, who could be vulnerable in round two?

Both top seeds may well face awkward openers.

Andrey Rublev played in the semi-finals in Astana at the weekend but conditions in Gijon will likely be much slower and Ilya Ivashka looks the sort of player who could easily cause him problems – his big first serve is usually a good weapon indoors.

In Florence, Felix Auger-Aliassime, beaten in round one in Astana, will meet either Marton Fucsovics or Oscar Otte first up.

Either could trouble him. Fucsovics’ flat-hitting game has the potential to rush the Canadian, while Otte’s serve should serve him well in what are expected to be the fastest conditions of the week.

Finally, Lorenzo Musetti could be another seed in early trouble.

He looks likely to face fellow Italian Lorenzo Sonego in his first match, a man who enjoys the slicker conditions and one in decent form having won the title indoors in Metz just a few weeks ago.

Some futures prices suggest Sonego will go into that one as the underdog and I’m not sure that’s right.

Best Futures Pick

Lorenzo Sonego is on home soil in Florence this week and looking to back up his title run in Metz.

Having also won an ATP title on grass in the past, he should enjoy what have looked pretty fast conditions during qualifying.

He’ll need to get past Musetti in round two but if he does, then you wonder if the other seeds in his half – Jenson Brooksby and Felix Auger-Aliassime – will be around for scheduled meetings.

Matteo Berrettini is the obvious pick for a home winner but he’s in the other half and certainly, those with the option of placing an each-way wager or backing him to reach the final should consider Sonego at +1000.

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