There look to be some decent underdog wagers about to kick-off what should be a superb week of tennis on the ATP Tour.
The strong field in Dubai is headlined by Novak Djokovic but one of the seeds looks vulnerable early on and that’s Shapovalov.
He’s struggled in recent weeks, losing to qualifier Jiri Lehecka in Rotterdam and then last week failing to break the serve of Arthur Rinderknech in Doha where he won just one match.
Fucsovics also exited in the quarter-finals in Doha but had a couple of decent wins before losing from a set up against Nikoloz Basilashvili.
The Dubai DecoTurf tends to be slightly quicker than the Plexicushion in Doha but at both venues it slows down in the evening when cooler conditions arrive.
Whenever they play, Fucsovics has the power to take time away from Shapovalov, as he did in their only previous meeting – at the 2020 Australian Open.
Fucsovics won in four sets that day, only losing serve once, and I like his chances of a repeat at +166.
Dan Evans vs Andrey Rublev
Evans spends a lot of time in Dubai – indeed he had a training block at this very venue after the Australian Open.
Add in a decent record against a player who is coming from indoor conditions in Europe, and you’ve got a decent-looking +184 shot.
Rublev certainly seems to be returning to form. He won the title in Marseille on Sunday but will find conditions here quite different and first up he’ll face an opponent who has often troubled him in the past.
Evans’ excellent slice is a shot which has forced Rublev to generate his own pace and that’s not something the Russian has dealt with very well.
Evans is up 3-2 on the head-to-head record, 2-1 at tour level. He’s won their last two meetings, one of which was a 6-2 7-6 victory here in Dubai two years ago.
In short, there’s plenty to like about the chance of an upset here.
Jenson Brooksby vs Alex Zverev
Brooksby is a rising star on the ATP Tour, make no mistake, and the American is an awkward-looking opening foe for the defending champion in Acapulco.
That was certainly the case when the pair met in Indian Wells towards the end of last season when Brooksby pushed Zverev into a deciding set.
He gets a lot of balls back and is more than capable of staying in baseline rallies with the German, who arrives here on the back of a shock defeat in the Montpellier final to Alexander Bublik.
Brooksby was also a recent finalist in Dallas – an impressive effort after COVID prevented him from opening his season in Australia.
The youngster is a tempting +350 to win the match which may be worth a go but perhaps the better bet is to take him to win a set at +125.
While he’s only won one of his five matches against top-20 opponents, he’s claimed a set in four of them. Those included going a set up on Novak Djokovic at last year’s US Open.
Cameron Norrie vs Carlos Alcaraz
These two were champions in Delray Beach and Rio respectively on Sunday evening so there’s a chance one or both won’t make it to Acapulco.
However, if they do then Norrie looks a tempting price at +135.
Alcaraz will be arriving from the slow clay of Rio – his natural domain – and won’t have long at all to adapt to the Solflex hardcourts in Mexico.
Norrie, on the other hand, has spent the last week playing (and winning) on a hard surface in Delray Beach, another coastal venue so he should be bedded in terms of both surface and changing winds.
The Briton has regularly performed well on the Mexican Solflex, winning the title in Los Cabos last season, while he made the semis of this event in 2019.
Yes, Alcaraz won their only previous meeting fairly comfortably but the circumstances of this week’s showdown favor Norrie and I’ll be betting accordingly.
Round Two Upsets?
The only tournament handing out first-round byes this week is the Chile Open in Santiago but there’s still potential upset material to be grabbed.
Top seed Cristian Garin won this title last season but he’s struggled for results of late, last week winning just two games in an embarrassing defeat to Federico Coria in Rio.
Garin explained afterward that he’s been struggling with a shoulder injury “for a few months” and that it wasn’t getting any better.
He’s probably only still in the draw as this is his home event and it’s easy to see him not lasting long.
Garin will face either qualifier Renzo Olivo or compatriot Alejandro Tabilo first up, with the latter holding strong claims of an upset win.
Tabilo recently stormed to the final of the Cordoba Open, an event which, like this one, is played at a significant altitude.
If he beats Olivo, his price will certainly be worth a look.
Best Outright Pick
Federico Delbonis made the semi-finals of last year’s Chile Open and he should go close again in Santiago.
He’s been in decent form on the South American ‘Golden Swing’, reaching the last four in Buenos Aires before staying competitive against eventual champion Carlos Alcaraz in Rio last week.
Delbonis holds a 6-2 winning head-to-head against the man the layers expect to make the final in the bottom half of the draw, Albert Ramos-Vinolas, and he’s proved he can handle the altitude conditions, not only by going well here last season but also by winning one of his two ATP titles in Sao Paulo at this time of year.
He looks fairly well drawn and is worth a try in the Futures market at +1400.
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