NBA TV has a double-header tonight between the Atlanta Hawks and Miami Heat, followed by the New Orleans Pelicans and Sacramento Kings.
The Hawks and Heat are inside the top eight seeds in the Eastern Conference, the Pelicans are the No. 9 seed, and the Kings are slotted at the No. 3 spot in the Western Conference.
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Separated by two wins and one loss, the Heat are just ahead of the Hawks in the Eastern Conference standings. They’re 20-12 at home, and only six of the 15 teams in the East have at least 20 wins at home. They’re coming off a win on Saturday against these same Hawks, which was also at home, 117-109.
The Heat now sit at 34-31, while the Hawks are .500 at 32-32.
At BetMGM, the Heat are 3.5-point home favorites, and the total is 227.5.
In their matchup, this past Saturday, Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro combined for 50 points, 17 rebounds, and 10 assists. They were the lifeblood of the team’s offensive success. Jimmy Butler also registered a double-double, scoring 15 and bringing in 11 rebounds.
The Hawks got scoring from multiple places, with six players scoring in the double digits. Saddiq Bey led the way with 22 points, and Clint Capela had a game-leading 13 rebounds.
While the Heat won by eight on Saturday, this is a team that may have 20 home wins, but their record against the spread is just 9-21-2 when playing at home, which is easily the worst in the NBA.
With no new injuries to report, we can’t help but look at the total of 227.5 here. On Saturday, these teams finished with a combined 226. The Heat are 30th in the league in points per game. While the Hawks are 7th, the Heat rank second in opponent points per game, allowing just 108.8 per game.
Avoid the spread here; take the under 227.5 at BetMGM with -110 odds.
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Capping off the March 6 slate are the Kings and Pelicans in Sacramento, California. The Kings are 6.5-point home favorites, and the total is set at a monstrous 238.5. The Kings lead the league in points per game while ranking 28th in opponent points per game. Conversely, the Pelicans are 16th in points and 16th in opponent points per game.
The Kings offensive success comes from four players averaging 15 points per game or more. The list includes De’Aaron Fox (25.5), Domantas Sabonis (18.9), Harrison Barnes (15.1), and Kevin Huerter (15.0).
As mentioned, the Kings are the No. 3 seed in the West at 27-26, but they’re just 13-18 against teams with a record above .500. However, that doesn’t impact the outlook on this game much as the Pelicans are under .500 at 31-33.
The Pelicans are coming off a 108-99 loss to the Golden State Warriors on Friday but got some weekend rest. The Kings played on Saturday, losing at home to the Minnesota Timberwolves, 138-134. This is the third game in a four-game home stretch.
Against the spread, the Kings are 15-16-1 at home, and the Pelicans are just 12-20-1 on the road.
Since the All-Star period, the Pelicans have just one win in five games, and this is a spot for that Kings spotty defense to show up somewhat. Since February 23, the Pelicans are averaging 105.8 points per game, scoring less than 100 in two of those five games.
This isn’t a good spot for the Pelicans as they look to take on a Kings team averaging over 130 points per game over their 10 games. While the Kings defense is not good whatsoever, the Pelicans continue to deal with a voluminous injury report.
Look for the Kings to drop a bunch of points in the one en route to cover the 6.5-point mark.
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