2026 Midterm Election Predictions: Who Will Control Congress?

The 2026 midterm elections will determine the balance of power in the US Congress for the final two years of Donald Trump’s second term. Republicans are hoping to maintain control of both the Senate and House of Representatives, while Democrats are aiming to flip enough seats to earn a majority in both chambers. 

On this page, we give an overview of the odds available on the best US prediction markets for the upcoming elections. Keep reading to learn more about the current state of the House and Senate, which party could have control after election day, and how you can trade contracts on the upcoming election.

Who’s Favored to Win the 2026 Midterms?

Current trade markets at the best political betting sites favor the Democratic Party to win the 2026 Midterms. As of early October, markets have a 63% probability that Democrats will win enough races to earn a majority in both the House and the Senate. There is also a 30% probability that the Democrats will win the House of Representatives but Republicans will retain their majority in the Senate.

Polling indicates a strong possibility that Democrats will gain control of the House. Likewise, polling in recent weeks has indicated an increasingly likely scenario in which Democrats also win enough Senate races to gain a majority there as well.

House Odds: Who Controls the House?

Ahead of the election, Republicans have a slim 218-214 edge in the House of Representatives. However, the current markets indicate a better than 90% chance that Democrats win a majority of the House elections. Get a more in-depth look at the House of Representatives from our House Midterm Election page. 

Below, you can see the real-time market movements and trends at Kalshi.

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Which party will win the U.S. House?

In 2026

• Democratic Party 91%
• Republican Party 9%

Source: Kalshi. Data is automatically updated according to market conditions.

Here's how this political prediction event trends at Polymarket. Sign up with Polymarket promo code WSN to claim your welcome offer: Deposit $10 get a $25 Trading Bonus.

Senate Odds: Who Controls the Senate?

Heading into the midterms, Republicans have a 53-45 majority in the Senate. There will be 35 Senate races in November, giving Democrats a chance to flip enough seats to take over the majority. With two independent Senators who caucus with Democrats, they need to flip control of four seats to gain a majority in the Senate. Trading markets are currently giving Democrats a 63-64% chance to take control of the Senate. We share more info on our Which Party Will Win the Senate page.

See the latest Kalshi prediction market trends on which party will win the Senate in 2026.

Which party will win the U.S. Senate?

In 2026

• Democratic Party 65%
• Republican Party 37%

Source: Kalshi. Data is automatically updated according to market conditions.

Again, let's compare these Kalshi trends with Polymarket.

What’s Driving the Midterm Odds?

Historic trends in midterm elections go against the party of the current president. The president’s party has lost seats in the House of Representatives in 13 of the last 15 midterm elections, while losing Senate seats in nine of the last 15 midterms. Of course, the president’s party has picked up at least one Senate seat in the last two midterm elections. However, losses in the House for the president’s party can be substantial, including the 41 seats Republicans lost in 2018 during Donald Trump’s first term.

For the 2026 midterms, Trump’s poor approval ratings are a big driving force in markets projecting that Democrats will win a majority of races in both chambers. In late September, The Economist reported 61% disapproval and just 35% approval for Trump. This disapproval rating matches the belief that Democrats will win control of Congress. In early October, Nate Silver reported that among likely voters, Democrats had a 9% lead over Republicans in a generic poll. This also matches what prediction markets are indicating about Democrats having a high probability of winning control over both chambers of Congress.

How to Trade the 2026 Midterms?

Trading contracts for the 2026 midterms is simple. Every share of a contract trades at a price between 1¢ and 99¢. The price of each share reflects the implied probability of that event based on the market’s perception. For instance, a contract that’s priced at 70¢ has a 70% implied probability. 

When an event such as an election ends, losing contracts resolve for $0 and winning contracts resolve at $1. The earnings for each share of a contract are the difference between $1 and the trading price. For instance, a contract that was trading at 70¢ will come with a profit of 30¢ per share.

Before completing a trade, it’s best to check how trustworthy the price of a contract is. This can be done by checking the liquidity and volume of the market. If there is a high volume of trades in a specific market, it means more public interest, making the price more reliable. 

Is Trading Midterm Markets Legal in the US?

Yes. Trading contracts on the midterm elections is legal. The best political betting sites like Kalshi and Polymarket are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), allowing them to operate legally. Some states are challenging the legal status of these platforms or placing restrictions on trading. However, these restrictions are in relation to sporting events, not political markets. 

Responsible Risk Management

Practicing responsible risk management is essential for anyone trading futures contracts. Losing contracts settle at $0, so there is always the risk of losing capital. Therefore, you should only trade what you can afford to lose. It’s also important to read the resolution terms of every contract and understand the implied probability of an event before completing a trade. For help with a gambling addiction, contact the NCPG helpline or call 1-800-GAMBLER.