Deshaun Watson Suspension: What Could This Mean For Look-Ahead Games?
Deshaun Watson has been served a 6-game suspension from the NFL. With the Cleveland Browns’ quarterback sidelined, Jon wants to know, “How will that affect win totals for bets?”
With his finger on the pulse of the betting world, Bill proclaims, “Well, it didn’t,” and he connects this with insight on look-ahead games and the edge this has for bettors. With Bill seeing value in look-ahead lines, Jon expresses that there are, “so many factors, you don’t know who’s going to get hurt,” amongst other things.
In the case of Watson, Bill saw it as an opportunity to bet a lot of games later in the season. Where he saw the suspension being four to six games, others thought it was going to be longer.
You can bet week 16, 17, says Bill, I think it will work well for me as a sports bettor.
With the upcoming NFL season in general, Bill brings attention to the “giant edges,” that are upon us. He does acknowledge, however, that not everyone bets like him, “people don’t like tying up their money for that long… I have games in December.”
With all the opportunities that the Krackman jumps on, Jon wants to know, “Is it hard to manage those bets in terms of bankroll?”
“I overbet,” says Bill, “I bet more than I should’ve.” However, for a betting veteran like Bill, he lives by the mantra, “As your bankroll grows, your bet size will grow.” Most people have a scared bankroll, but not the Krackman!
To cap off his insight, Bill states, “Pay attention to socials, and when you hear about things, I think you should jump on them right away.” He then brings it full circle,
As soon as they talked about Watson not being out the full season, I think there were some values from week seven and on.
On this episode, Bill and Jon are joined by Chris ‘The Bear’ Fallica, a Research Producer for college football’s longest-running and highly acclaimed pregame show College GameDay on ESPN. Chris’ ESPN career began 27 years ago as a production assistant, and along with ESPN programming, his work has come to encompass a co-host position on the “Stanford Steve and the Bear” podcast.
As two “old school” guys in the betting game, Bill confides in Chris amongst a sea of social media personalities who flocked to betting once the industry exploded. As a “gambler first” personality in the industry, Chris regales the guys with how his gambling fever came to be, “I can remember from a young age, we went to the horse track regularly… horses were always in my blood, and sports were always in my blood.”
He also recounts how his dad would come home with parlay tickets when he was young, and he’d get to do one every week. This leads to Bill reminiscing about football parlays back in the day, which he would do when he was “7, 8, 9 years old!”
Being a part of one of the first shows at least at ESPN to recognize that people were in fact betting on games, Chris could feel that his passion and knowledge for betting were kinetic. “People would say he’s (Chris) lived it, he’s been around it his entire life.” The knowledge and efficient ability to communicate served Chris well prior to the boom and gave him an edge once it hit.
Diving into college football talk, Jon brings up NIL, in which college athletes are granted permission to monetize their name, image, and likeness.
University of Mississippi head football coach Lane Kiffin thinks that it’s “basically legalized cheating,” but Jon wants to know if its implementation will have an impact on the bettings and lines people will make. “It’s made it a little more difficult to make bets earlier in the year,” says Chris, “Because these kids are transferring so late, you’re kind of getting a late start in creating your own lines.”
In terms of NIL, Chris wants to see it become what it was designed to be, “A monetary bonus for good performance, and for making a team successful,” amongst other factors. With NIL, he could see the potential of a salary-type structure happening.
Although he covers college football for a living, it might be a surprise to know that it’s not his preferred sport to bet on.
I really like betting on soccer and tennis, because of the in-game opportunities you can get, explains Chris, For example in tennis, the favorite could drop the first set.
In discussing betting preseason, Bill explains how it has amazing closing line value, which people rag on him for. Chris, however, takes his side, “Preseason is the best edge you’re going to have in an NFL game… coaches are telling you exactly what they’re going to do.” He then concludes by saying that “Oddsmakers can’t really adjust to moves made in the game.”
Winding down, Jon shoots Chris a cheeky grin and states, “You have your (New York) Jets over/under win at 6.” “I’m under on the Jets this year,” sighs Chris, “I guess I’m just a downtrodden Jets fan.” He hasn’t lost faith, however; he knows they’re going to be the underdogs, and he hopes to see them put up a fight.
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