NFL Week 4 Betting Picks + TNF Recap - Ride the Line Ep #63

A new episode of Ride the Line with Grant Mitchell and Tanner Kern is now live on all WSN platforms!

NFL Week 4 Betting Picks

The show starts with a quick rehash of what happened during the Detroit Lions-Green Bay Packers matchup on Thursday Night Football. Grant and Tanner were both on the Lions, as was a majority of the public, and the bet was never in doubt from the opening moments.

Looking ahead to the weekend, Grant likes the Baltimore Ravens +3 against the Cleveland Browns. The Ravens’ offense has been anything but consistent, but they’ve been able to produce and would likely be 3-0 if it weren’t for a blown pass interference call on fourth down in overtime last week.

The Ravens are 19-3-1 against the spread in their last 23 games as underdogs. The Browns are coming off a momentous victory over the Tennessee Titans in what was Deshaun Watson’s best game as a member of the team, but Grant doesn’t believe he can sustain that level, especially without Nick Chubb.

Tanner’s looking at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at +3.5 against the New Orleans Saints for his first bet. The Bucs didn’t look great against the Philadelphia Eagles last week but have still started the year impressively and are now facing a Saints team that will start either a banged-up Derek Carr or backup Jameis Winston.

Saints coach Dennis Allen covers the spread in just about 39% of his games as the head whistle. The Bucs also have a defense capable of matching the Saints, and both co-hosts agree this game should stay within a field goal.

Grant’s second pick is the San Francisco 49ers at home against the Arizona Cardinals. Since 2005, teams that are 3-0 ATS (like the Cardinals) are only 4-13 ATS in Week 4 as underdogs. The 49ers are also outsourcing opponents by an average of 16 points per game and are 8-2 ATS when Brock Purdy doesn’t tear ligaments in his throwing arm.

The Cardinals have been competitive and better than expected thus far, but they’re playing a Niners squad that has an extended period of rest coming off of Thursday Night Football. This is also a road divisional matchup and one that should swing in favor of the Niners.

More NFL Week 4 Best Bets

Tanner’s second pick is the Los Angeles Chargers -5.5 against the Las Vegas Raiders. Jimmy Garoppolo could miss the game with an injury, and his replacement will be either Aidan O’Connell or veteran Brian Hoyer, neither of which are enticing betting prospects.

The Raiders are 24th in points allowed and 29th in scoring offense, and several key players are frustrated with the state of the team. Chargers QB Justin Herbert just completed 40 of 47 passes for 405 yards and three touchdowns last week and is in line for another commanding win.

Grant’s final pick is the Kansas City Chiefs -9.5 against the New York Jets on Sunday Night Football. Patrick Mahomes is only 1-8 ATS as a road favorite of more than a touchdown, but the Chiefs are 19-7 ATS when the total is less than 49 points during the Mahomes era (the total here is 42).

The Chiefs’ defense has allowed the fourth-fewest points per game and should feast against Zach Wilson, who has the worst completion percentage and passer rating in the NFL. Grant believes the Jets are capped at 10-13 points, and the Chiefs only need to hit the low 20s to cover.

The final pick of the show comes from Tanner, and it is the New England Patriots +6.5. He pointed out that the Pats have either won or been driving down the field at the end of the game in all three of their outings thus far, and the Cowboys just proved they can disappoint in a two-score loss to the Cardinals.

The Pats need to keep the game under to have a chance to cover, but Tanner believes they can do just that. 

Check back next week for more episodes of Ride the Line and more NFL betting picks and analysis!