Week 1 NFL Picks, Props, and More for September 8 - Ride the Line Ep. #54

A new episode of Ride the Line with Grant Mitchell and Tanner Kern is now live on all WSN platforms!

NFL Betting Picks

The boys started the show off with a review of what happened on Thursday Night Football between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Detroit Lions. The headlining story was Kadarius Toney and the Chiefs receivers’ inability to positively impact the game, but Grant and Tanner also made sure to credit Mahomes’ brilliance in the pocket. 

Moving into Sunday's schedule, Grant is looking at the Pittsburgh Steelers to beat the San Francisco 49ers straight up. The Steelers were 8-2 in games T.J. Watt played in and are one of the few teams in the league with a defense that can stand up to the Niners’.

Brock Purdy is also coming off of a torn UCL and could be without George Kittle—not only is Kittle a great receiving threat, but he’s an excellent blocker, and Watt will have a freer path to the quarterback if he doesn’t play. Kenny Pickett needs to play better than he did last year, but he was nearly perfect in the preseason and is comfortable in his home stadium.

Grant also likes the Seattle Seahawks to beat the Los Angeles Rams by at least the four points the oddsmakers set the spread at. Bobby Wagner and Jalen Ramsey are gone from LA’s defense, Aaron Donald only had five sacks last year, Cooper Kupp is out with an injury, and Matthew Stafford is coming off an assortment of injuries himself.

The Seahawks have one of the best home environments in the league and strengthened their roster with the additions of Wager, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Devon Witherspoon, and others. They have a legitimate chance to compete for the NFC West title, and they should start the year with a sizable win.

Grant’s final pick is the Tennessee Titans +3 against the New Orleans Saints. The Titans started last year 7-3 and 8-2 against the spread and have a criminally underrated coach in Mike Vrabel at the helm, as well as newly-added receiver Deandre Hopkins.

The Titans gave up fewer rushing yards per game than every team in the league. That said, they also gave up more passing yards per game than everyone, but Grant doesn’t trust Dennis Allen to have Derek Carr fully firing in his first start in a new location.

NFL Prop Bets for Week 1

Tanner took care of the prop bets for this week’s show, and he started with Christina McCaffrey over 94.5 rushing+receiving yards. McCaffrey is the best dual-threat back in the league and will be the focal point for the offense.

The Steelers' defense is awesome, but Kyle Shanahan has proven that he can scheme nearly anyone open when it comes to running the football. McCaffrey will also be a mainstay no matter what type of game plays out.

Tanner’s second prop is Sam Howell over 203.5 passing yards against the Arizona Cardinals. Tanner has not been impressed with Cardinals' new head coach Jonathan Gannon, and he also respects the cast of weapons that Washington has assembled, plus Eric Bieniemy.

The Commanders have been in constant turnover at the quarterback position for over a decade, but Howell has a chance to end the chaos. He fell in the draft but is a risk-taker who beat the Dallas Cowboys in his only professional start thus far.

The final pick of the show, also from Tanner, is Trevor Lawrence over 258.5 passing yards against the Indianapolis Colts. He believes that big things are coming for Lawrence, Calvin Ridley, and the Jags offense this year and that the Colts don’t have the experience to contain them.

Home underdogs also typically perform well against the spread, so he expects Indy to be competitive. But as Grant pointed out, the Colts are especially thin at the cornerback position and will be playing rookies and second-year players many snaps.

Check back next Monday for another episode of Ride the Line podcast!