Women’s Basketball at Summer Olympics Finals: USA vs. France Odds, Player Props & Picks

The outcome everyone expected has become a reality. Team USA will play for an eighth consecutive gold medal. With how well they have played, it is hard to imagine them losing. But France will not just roll over and let them win, even if the betting odds have them as heavy underdogs.

France gave the U.S. a solid fight in the Tokyo Games but lost by 11 points, 93-82. But with their defense and one of the more efficient offenses in the Games, can they do the impossible and take down Team USA?

Betting Odds for Gold Medal Game, USA vs. France on August 11

The Olympics have gone like they were supposed to for Team USA. They were supposed to bulldoze their way through the competition, starting with an offensive explosion over Japan to a defensive clinic against Australia in the semifinals.

However, since the Japan game, the U.S. has focused on defense and gone 2-3 against the spread.

France has taken a more defensive approach but has been the third-best offense in the Summer Games, averaging 77.4 ppg, second to the U.S. (89.8 ppg). But will their efficient offensive approach be productive against a smothering U.S. defense?

Let’s take a look at the betting line for USA vs. France. The following odds are from BetMGM. Use our code WSNSPORTS at BetMGM and get up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets*.

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USA vs. France Preview

This game will be the 12th international match-up between the U.S. women’s national team and France. Of the 11 previous contests, the U.S. has won ten. The one loss to France came in 1971, in the preliminary round of the World Championships.

But in Olympic play, the U.S. is 3-0 against France, beating them in the quarterfinals in 2012 (94-72), semifinals in 2016 (86-67), and in group play during the Tokyo Games (93-82).

USA Preview

The U.S. women’s national team has evolved into the type of squad every coach dreams about having. Their defense is capable of absolutely smothering opposing offenses, and if they need to win by outscoring someone, they can.

But most of all, the roster has played an absolutely selfless style of game. No one complains in the media about playing time or getting enough touches. Instead, they are averaging nearly 30 assists a game.

Breanna Stewart and A’ja Wilson have led the way offensively. But since scoring 20+ points in the first two games, Wilson has scored 20 in one game while Stewart’s high is 16. In the last two games, four players have scored in double digits.

The question is not whether the U.S. should win this game but how. Will they smother France’s offense or blow away the French defense? Or a combination of the two? How it happens is not what matters, of course.

Just that they do.

France Preview

The U.S. has been a heavy favorite to win the gold medal since the odds opened, but upsets happen all the time. What’s to say one can’t happen here? After all, it isn’t like France is just some low-level junior varsity squad.

Their defense has been stingy, giving up just 66.6 ppg. Of course, to slow down the U.S. offense, they’ll need a stellar performance from the whole roster. They’ll need to figure out some way to close down the paint, where the U.S. has scored over 50% of its points in every game but one (48% vs. Belgium).

But the U.S. has also made the most of second-chance points, fast breaks, and its bench. So, France will also need to figure out how to slow the U.S. down.

Of course, none of that will matter if they can’t put points on the board themselves. But France has had the second-highest scoring offense of the Games (77.4 ppg) and the third-most efficient (91.2). They hit over 50% of their two-pointers but just 30.5% of their three-pointers.

Japan hit 15 of 39 three-pointers.

USA vs. France Pick

• My Pick: UNDER 156.5 points at -115 via BetMGM

The U.S. will win this game. France has a solid roster, but even if the U.S. loses a few players to injury early, they have talent ready to step in. So, the only question is whether they’ll cover the spread. With how they’ve played the last few games, we're leaning towards no.

But it is also hard to say with confidence that France can keep it within 15 points.

However, the odds for ‘France +15.5' are the same, so choose the one you feel more comfortable with.

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Player Props & Best Bets for Gold Medal Game, Women's Basketball: USA vs. France

A’ja Wilson, O/U 19.5 Points at -120 via BetMGM

• Breanna Stewart, O/U 17.5 Points at -200 via BetMGM

• Jackie Young, O/U 12.5 Points at -120 via BetMGM

Wilson and Stewart have been the driving force behind the U.S. offense, but they have not been blowing up against lesser defenses since going off against Japan and Belgium. France has played solid defense throughout the tournament and will likely focus on the dynamic duo.

We expect this to be a defensive battle and do not see either going over their total.

But while they have been taking a step back on offense, others, like Jackie Young, have stepped up. She’s had 14, 15, and 19 in the last three games. We think she’ll go OVER her total here.

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A’ja Wilson, O/U 10.5 Rebounds at -120 via BetMGM

• OVER 14.5 Rebounds at +500 via BetMGM

Wilson leads the WNBA in rebounds with 12 per game and leads the Olympics with 10. She had eight against Australia (a solid rebounding team), 11 vs. Nigeria, three against Germany, and 13 against Belgium and Japan.

If France was a better rebounding team(No. 10 of 12 teams with 34.4 per game), we’d lean towards the UNDER for this game—but they aren’t. She’ll go over her total, but will she go over 14.5? Eh…if you’ve got a bonus bet burning a hole in your pocket…

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Gabby Williams, O/U 14.5 Points at-120 via BetMGM

France has had the second most productive offense at the Games, but they have not relied on any one player to lead the way on offense. Various players have stepped up and made significant contributions in different games. But the most consistent performer has been Williams

In France’s five games, she has scored 12, 14, 15, 15, and 18 points (but needed an overtime period). She scored 10 against the U.S. in the Tokyo Games matchup. With how stifling the U.S. defense has been, we don’t see her going OVER her total for this game.

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How to Watch USA vs. France

• Location: Bercy Arena in Paris, France

• Game Time & Date: 9:30 a.m. E.T. on Sunday,  August 11

• Coverage: USA Network/ Peacock/ NBCOlympics.com