Women’s Basketball at Summer Olympics: USA vs. Australia Semifinal Odds, Player Props & Picks

The march to gold continues for the U.S. women’s national basketball team when they face off with Australia in the Paris Olympics semifinal on Friday at 11:30 a.m. ET. Like every game in the tournament, the USWNT is a heavy betting favorite.

While Australia began the Olympics with a crushing loss to Nigeria, they bounced back with wins against Canada and France in group play before dominating Serbia in the quarterfinal. But if they are going to move on to the gold medal game, they must do something they’ve never done before.

Beat Team USA.

Betting Odds for Women’s Basketball Summer Olympics, USA vs. Australia on August 9

As cliché as it may sound, the USWNT’s game against Nigeria was not as close as the final score indicates. Yes, a 14-point scoring differential is not exactly close. But heading into the fourth quarter, the U.S. had a 76-48 advantage.

Australia was in a similar situation heading into the fourth quarter of their quarterfinal matchup vs. Serbia, but they were up 72-48. They went on to win 85-67.

Here’s the betting line for USA vs. Australia. Odds are via BetMGM where new users can get up to $1500 in bonus bets* when using our code WSNSPORTS.

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USA vs. Australia Preview

The U.S. and Australia have a pretty long history, and it all favors the U.S. This game will be the seventh time the two teams have met in the knockout stages and ninth overall, dating back to the 1984 Summer Olympic Games.

Team USA went 8-0 in those games, the closest contest came in the gold medal game of the 2004 Summer Olympics, 74-63. They met in the quarterfinals of the Tokyo Games; the U.S. won 79-55.

Player Props & Best Bets for Women's Olympics Basketball Semifinal: USA vs. Australia

Jackie Young, OVER 9.5 Points at -140 via BetMGM

Breanna Stewart and A'ja Wilson led the way in the first two games (vs. Japan and Belgium), but they almost took a backseat to Young in the last two. Young led the team with 19 points against Germany and had 15 vs. Nigeria.

We'd expect Wilson and Stewart to step back in front for this caliber of a game, but not so much that Young doesn't score in double digits.

Breanna Stewart, O/U 17.5 Points at -120 via BetMGM

• A'ja Wilson, O/U 21.5 Points at -120 via BetMGM

After blowing up and going over their respective totals in the first two games, both players quieted down over the last two, scoring under their totals. What happened? Their decline can be attributed to several factors, but foul shooting and shot volume were the most consistent.

Against Belgium, Stewart's total got a boost from the free throw line (9-10; Wilson went 5-6). In the first game, vs. Japan, it was more of a volume of shots (Stewart was 11-15, Wilson 10-16) but Wilson did get some help from the free throw line (4-6).

Both took 11 shots and made six vs. Germany. Against Nigeria, Wilson was 9-11 while Stewart was 5-7.

Australia ranks seventh in fouls, committing 17.3 per game. Since neither will likely be busy from the free throw line and with players like Jackie Young continuing to have a more significant role (compared to the first two games), both could go under their totals again.

But, if one were to have a big day and go over their total, we'd go with Wilson.

Alanna Smith, O/U 11.5 Points at -120 via BetMGM

• Ezi Magbegor, O/U 10.5 Points at -120 via BetMGM

• Sami Whitcomb, O/U 13.5 Points at -120 via BetMGM

The three above players are the top-scoring threats the U.S. will face in this game. Of the three, Whitcomb has been the most consistent, scoring 13, 19, 12, and 15 points. Smith was held scoreless against Canada but had 15, 12, and 22 in the other three games.

Magbegor had 9, 12, and 14 in group play, but just four against Serbia in the quarterfinals.

Of the three, Macbeggor does most of her work inside, where the U.S. has been challenging to score against. We are leaning towards taking the UNDER for her total. The goose egg against Canada has us concerned Smith will struggle against the U.S. defense (go UNDER).

But Whitcomb is the more dynamic of the three, a solid threat from two-point and three-point range. If anyone on Australia's team is going to go over their total, it is her.

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USA Preview

The formula has been roughly the same for the U.S. throughout the tournament:

• Play tough-as-nails defense.

• Make the most of the size differential.

• Let their athleticism speak for itself.

Overall, the results have been great. They've won every game, and you can't get better than that, right?

Yeah, but they can play better.

Team USA leads the field in several statistical categories (per game): points (91), assists (29.3), blocks (6.3), two-point field goals (58.3%),  rebounds (47.8), efficiency (121.8), etc. But there is one category the U.S. is surprisingly struggling in—three-point shooting.

For a roster with some of the WNBA's top three-pointers on it, the U.S. has not done well shooting from three-point range throughout the tournament (30.8%, eighth).

It is not a significant enough issue to be something Australia can exploit, but it could mean the final score will be closer than expected.

Australia Preview

Incidentally, while the U.S. has been one of the worst three-point shooting teams at the Olympics, Australia has been the best (36.9%). While the U.S. missing three-pointers is not a big deal, if they can heat up from three-point range, the game's complexity will change.

The U.S. has been playing solid defense, but the crux of their strategy has been to let their offense do the talking. It has, of course, to the tune of 91 ppg. But teams that have done well shooting three-pointers have made the U.S. work for the win, at least.

Japan hit 15 of 39 three-pointers, but the U.S. dominated them so much in every other aspect of the game that it didn't matter. Three-pointers helped Germany get within eight in the third quarter before a 20-5 run by the U.S. to end the period put them away.

In the qualifying tournament, Belgium nearly beat the U.S. on a night they shot 12-29 from three-point range while the U.S. only hit 4-19.  

USA vs. Australia Pick

• My Pick: Australia +17.5 at -110 via BetMGM

If the U.S. could be counted on to hit a few three-pointers, we'd recommend taking them to cover the spread. But since they have struggled from three-point range, and Australia has not, we think Australia can stay within 17.5 points.

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How to Watch USA vs. Australia

• Location: Bercy Arena in Paris, France

• Game Time & Date: 11:30 a.m. E.T. on Friday,  August 9

• Coverage: USA Network/ Peacock/ NBCOlympics.com