Women's Basketball at Paris Olympics 2024: Winner Predictions, Picks & Odds

The group play stage is in the books, which means it’s time to get serious. Teams must win to stay alive. Lose, and it’s back to the Olympic Village you go. To no one’s surprise, the U.S. Women’s National Team has dominated the competition and remains the betting favorite to win the gold medal.

However, they are not the only good women’s basketball team in Paris. France has played well, as have Germany, Australia, and the only undefeated team in group play other than the U.S.—Spain. But while the U.S. is a substantial favorite, they haven’t won what matters most (yet).

Even if they do, who wins the gold medal is not the only betting market for women’s basketball at the Olympics.

2024 Women's Basketball Olympics Betting Odds & Predictions

Heading into the quarterfinal round, the betting odds have shifted once again for the U.S., making them an even more substantial betting favorite. At -2000, they now have a 95.24% chance of winning the gold medal.

Early on, a significant number of tickets at BetMGM were for the U.S. (73.9% of tickets, 99% of the handle), and that probably hasn’t changed much, if at all.

With how the group play games played out, it is hard to make a case against Team USA not winning gold. However, there is a lot of basketball still to come and anything can happen. Let's take a look at the latest odds to win Olympic gold in women's basketball.

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Best Bets for Women's Basketball Olympics 2024

When we call something a "best bet," it reflects the value the market has. It does not necessarily mean that the market will be a winner.

As sacrilegious as it may sound, betting on the USWNT to win gold is not considered one of our "best bets." At their recent odds, it will take a wager of $2000 just to win $100. But if you have $2000 you can bet, do you really want to do so and only win $100?

Probably not. Not that $100 is a chump change; we just prefer more of an ROI. Regarding winning the gold medal, there are two teams worth betting on—you know, just in case Team USA goes down.

France: Opened +2500, After Game 1 +2000, Prior to Quarterfinal: +1600at BetMGM

France was already a highly regarded team entering the Summer Games. Winning Group B with a 2- record likely reaffirmed the positive image many already had for the team. Their defense has been impressive, holding two teams to just 54 points in group play.

But while they are efficient on offense, they are not a prolific scoring team. If they were to fall behind by a significant margin, they’d have a very hard time crawling out of the hole.

France faces Germany in the quarterfinals (Wednesday, 12 p.m. ET) with a chance to play Spain or Belgium in the semifinals.

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Spain: Opened-- +2500, After Game 1: +2200, Prior to Quarterfinal: +4000 at BetMGM

Spain has a talented that could make a run at the gold medal if they can take care of one issue: they struggle with consistency. Being able to adjust and come from behind is something potential medal winners do, but the team would be better off not hitting any lulls and falling behind.

No matter who they face, their defense will need to improve a lot. Their offense is not good enough to beat the USA or France without more help from their defense.

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Women’s Olympics Basketball– Betting Without Favorite at BetMGM

With this market, with the USWNT taken out of the equation, you are betting on a team to win the gold or silver if the U.S. wins the gold.

• France (+1000) at BetMGM

• Darkhorse: Spain (+600) at BetMGM

This market may be the most intriguing one offered by sportsbooks. With the USWNT heavy favorites to win the gold, there isn't much room for discussion. However, if we take them out of the equation and bet on who will win the Silver, we have something that can be debated!

While we saw no reason to jump on the France bandwagon before the Games, we see it now. It will take a solid team effort to take down Team USA. It remains to be seen if France has the team to do it, but their style of play and the talent on their roster makes them a solid bet.

We include Spain here because they had the fortitude to come from behind and find a way to win against China. They'll need to lean on Megan Gustafson a lot and will need a few bounces to go their way, but they have played well enough to consider betting on them in this market.

Spain has a solid offense, but it is not good enough to carry the team to a gold medal; they can’t outscore the U.S. offensive juggernaut. But if they can start playing better defense without letting their offense slip, they could make a run.

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Additional Betting Markets for Women’s Basketball at the Paris Olympics

Will Belgium win a medal?

• Yes +180 at BetMGM

Will Germany win a medal?

• Yes +180 at BetMGM

Will Australia win a medal?

• Yes +250 at BetMGM

Will France win a medal?

• Yes -120 at BetMGM

Will Spain win a medal?

• Yes +155 at BetMGM

If Belgium’s odds were higher, it may be worth putting something on them to medal. The team got off to a slow start, but they won when it mattered and showed how well they can play when things go well.

But with two losses and a potential rematch with Germany looming, their odds need to be higher. At +180, there isn’t enough value to warrant taking the risk.

Australia will beat Serbia only to lose to the U.S. in the semis. There is no value in betting on France with minus-money odds; we think Germany wins that game, anyway. But if Germany makes it past France (as we expect), they could definitely beat Spain or Belgium in the next.

That would set them up for a silver medal. But if they lose in the semis, we feel good about their chance of taking Australia in the bronze medal game.

Should Spain win and move on to the semis, we expect them to lose to Germany and then again to Australia in the bronze medal game.

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Women's Basketball Olympics 2024 Schedule

• The quarterfinals are scheduled for August 7

• The semifinals will follow on August 9

•  Medal games will be held on August 11

Women's Basketball Olympics - History

Women's basketball was added to the Summer Olympics, starting with the 1976 Games in Montreal. The Soviet Union won the first two; the U.S. won silver in the first and did play in the 1980 Games in Moscow. Since then, Team USA has dominated the Olympic competition.

Here is a list of the medal winners for women's basketball:

How to Watch Women's Basketball at the 2024 Paris Olympics

• Dates: July 27 - August 11

• Location: Paris, France

• How to Watch: NBC, Peacock (Streaming)