Women’s Basketball at Summer Olympics: Belgium vs. Australia Odds, Player Props & Picks

They may not be playing for gold, but Belgium and Australia will play for a medal when they face off Sunday morning at the Bercy Arena in Paris. Early odds have Australia listed as a 1.5-point favorite.

Fans will have to get up bright and early to watch the game live, with tipoff scheduled for 5:30 a.m. ET. But with how these teams have played throughout the Olympics, it might be worth setting your coffee pot to start brewing in time to make a cup and turn the game on.

Betting Odds for the Bronze Medal Game: Belgium vs. Australia on August 11

A lackluster start nearly had a Cinderella finish for Belgium. After losing their first two games, it looked like it was time to pack their bags for home. But they snuck into the knockout rounds with a win over Japan and beat Spain to earn a spot in the semifinal, where they fell to France in OT.

Australia also got off to a less-than-desirable start with a shocking loss to Nigeria. But they bounced back with wins over Canada, France, and Serbia to earn a shot at the U.S. in the semifinal, and all one win short of the gold medal game.

They are both solid teams with lots of talented players. At the very least, the bronze medal game will be exciting. Let’s take a look at the betting line for the game. Odds are sourced from BetMGM where new users can get up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets with our code WSNSPORTS.*

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Belgium vs. Australia Preview

There isn’t a lot of history between these two teams. They have played twice, once in the Tokyo Olympics (group play) and again in September 2022 in the FIBA Women’s Basketball World Cup Quarterfinals. Belgium won in Tokyo, 85-70, while Australia won at the World Cup, 86-69.

Both went 1-1 ATS, and the OVER was 2-0.

Belgium Preview

The game against France was close. Both teams won two quarters during regulation but never by more than three points. It was one of those games where the winner would be whoever did what they do best, which France did. 

They played hard-nosed defense throughout the game, holding Emma Meesseman to just 19 points (15 in regulation).

Belgium must get Meesseman on track early against Australia. The quicker she can get on track, the sooner the defense is forced to adjust, and the rest of the team can start getting more open looks. Since she never really got on track against France, the French defense did not have to adjust. 

While three of the other four starters scored in double figures, Belgium only got eight points off the bench (to France’s 29).

The most notable statistical difference in their wins compared to their losses has been the rebound battle. They won it, 45-32, vs. Japan and 42-33 against Spain. However, against France, they both had 43 total rebounds, but France dominated the offensive glass, 19-7.   

Australia Preview

Four common statistical factors helped account for Australia’s three wins: they won the rebound battle, recorded more assists, had solid nights scoring in the paint, and had a productive bench. Nothing can reasonably be taken from the game against the U.S. since the USWNT dominates everyone.

But in the loss to Nigeria, while they won the rebound battle and recorded more assists, Nigeria crushed them in the turnover battle (15-26), scored more points off turnovers (26-19), and recorded 15 steals.  Nigeria got more help off the bench (17-11 points).

It also didn’t help that Australia struggled from the free-throw line, scoring just eight points from 18 attempts, while Nigeria hit 18 of 21.

Belgium vs. Australia Pick

• My Pick: Belgium Moneyline +110 at BetMGM

These teams are statistically comparable in many ways; the differences are not too significant in most cases. But the winner of this game will come down to who wins one category—turnovers. Both have struggled with them at times; Australia averaged 18.8 to 17 for Belgium.

We are leaning toward taking the UNDER, but we also like Belgium’s ML.

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Player Props & Best Bets for Bronze Medal Game: Belgium vs. Australia

Emma Meesseman, O/U 22.5 Points at -120 via BetMGM

• OVER 29.5 Points at +360 via BetMGM

• O/U 8.5 Rebounds at -120 via BetMGM

• OVER 9.5 Rebounds at +120 via BetMGM

As important as she has been throughout the Olympics for Belgium, we do not see Belgium being scared off by the trouble they had getting her going against France. Australia is a decent defensive team, but not nearly as good as France. With a medal on the line, she’ll be bringing her ‘A++’ game.

Australia has yet to allow any player to score 20+ points in a game in the Olympics. We would not be surprised if Meesseman becomes the first and goes OVER this total. Will she go over 29.5? Eh...we’re not as sure about that, but we wouldn’t be shocked.

As for her rebound numbers, no one has pulled down double-digit boards against Australia (who have been one of the better rebounding teams, averaging 39.4 per game to Belgium’s 36.8). Meesseman has been the fifth-best rebounder at the Olympics, averaging eight per game.  

She had 14, 9, and 11 in her last three games. With the difference between the two options being one rebound, we’re leaning towards OVER 9.5.

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Alanna Smith, O/U 11.5 Points at -120

• Ezi Magbegor, O/U 9.5 Points at -120 via BetMGM

• Sami Whitcomb, O/U 14.5 Points at +100/-140 via BetMGM

Smith has had a few big games with 15, 12, and 22, but then had a goose egg against Canada and was held to seven vs. the U.S. Belgium will not play defense nearly as well, but Australia seems to be trying to spread the ball around a lot more the last couple of games.

She’ll score more than seven, but we think other players will be the focal point of the Australian offense in this game.

Magbegor is capable of scoring over 9.5 points; she has done so twice in the Olympics. But her value is more on the defensive end of the court. We’d lean toward taking the OVER for Smith before taking the OVER for Magbegor.

Whitcomb is the more dynamic scorer of the three, averaging 12.8 ppg. Still, she is coming off a 5-point game against the U.S. Belgium’s defense will not be nearly as challenging, and with the added motivation of winning a medal, we can see her coming through for her team (getting plus-money odds for the OVER doesn’t hurt).

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How to Watch Belgium vs. Australia

• Location: Bercy Arena in Paris, France

• Game Time & Date: 5:30 a.m. E.T. on Sunday,  August 11

• Coverage: USA Network/ Peacock/ NBCOlympics.com