The stars of the hit Netflix show SPRINT are ditching their Hollywood careers for a shot at a Gold Medal at the 2024 Paris Olympics.
The once-every-four-years competition pits the best athletes in the world against one another on the grandest of stages. In the case of track and field, that stage would be a 400-meter rubber surface used to propel the fastest humans on the planet.
Americans Noah Lyles and Sha'Carri Richardson are among the favorites in the 100- and 200-meter dash, but here, we will look at the odds and top favorites for all of the sprint events at the 2024 Paris Olympics.
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Lyles is the dominant force in the world of sprinting. He won the Gold Medal in the 100- and 200-meter dash at the 2023 World Championships and set a (wind-aided) personal best 9.80 at the U.S. Olympic Trials, while tying his official personal bets of 9.83 at the same event. He only finished outside of first place in two of his 19 races this season and got second in both of those instances.
With all that being said, Lyles is most vulnerable in the 100m. His personal best does not compare to his PR in the 200 (the third-fastest time all-time), and he has struggled with his start throughout most of his career. At the same time, he ran lots of 60-meters indoors and has put a heavy focus on getting better at the 100.
The odds-on favorite, Kishane Thompson, is only 22 years old and does not have a medal at the World Championships or Olympics. He also has a long injury history, and while he is on a hot streak, does not have many clockings of a time quick enough to win this event.
Seville ran 9.83 or faster in three of his four 100m races this season. He handed Lyles one of his rare losses on June 1, clocking 9.82 to Lyles' 9.85 to win the Racers Grand Prix in Kingston, Jamaica, and is slightly more experienced than this countryman (though he’s still only 23).
Seville, 20 at the time, was part of the Jamaican 4x100m team that finished fourth at the Tokyo Olympics, and he ran two events at each of the last two World Championships. He only claimed one medal in those (a Bronze) but never finished worse than fourth and has been in pressurized situations before.
Seville has solid top-end speed and a better start than the American favorite. Thompson is almost a Wild Card despite being the odds-on favorite, while Seville is the more steady pick to give a challenge to Lyles, Tebogo, and the other usual suspects.
Jackson (who we mentioned earlier) is a 200m specialist, yet her 100m has been well ahead of her 200m this season. That’s a major reason why Thomas heads into the Olympics as the favorite despite only finishing third in the 200m at Tokyo.
Concerns with Thomas’ Jamaican competitor are only secondary to her actual accomplishments thus far, however. The 27-year-old ran a PR and world-leading 21.78 at the Trials, beating a field of women that ran the five fastest 200-meters this year.
Thomas has an electric start and ran great turns in every round of the Trials. She’s familiar with all of the American women in the field and only had Jackson to worry about from the rest of the world, and again, Jackson has concerns of her own at this distance. This should be a coming of age and the perfect time for the Harvard product to grab her first Olympic individual Gold.
Speaking of American women, Brittany Brown finished third at the Trials in a field that dominated the world rankings. She’s 29 and right in the prime of her career as she gets ready to make the trip over to Paris.
Jackson’s injury and unexpected recent struggles in the event open a door that was previously closed to all challengers. The same could be said for McKenzie Long, though we worry that she could gas out ahead of the Final after a jam-packed college season at Ole Miss.
Thomas is still our pick, but Brown’s recent performance at the Trials gives her just as good a chance as anyone at upsetting the apple cart.
Holloway is another member of the track and field community who is head and shoulders above the rest of the world. His season-best time (12.86) doesn’t seem that far ahead of Crittenden (12.93), but he won all 15 of his races this season and ran the fourth-fastest time in the history of the world on June 28.
Holloway, 26, was a surprising second in Tokyo 2020 but won the Gold at the 2019, 2022, and 2023 World Championships. He also won Gold in the 60-meter hurdles at the Indoor World Championships earlier this year and is in scintillating form heading into the Olympics.
Holloway’s biggest advantage is his explosive start, which is unlike anyone else’s in the field. He’s nearly always in first place at the first hurdle and hasn’t looked too keen on relinquishing that advantage.
Simonelli is an interesting pick as an upset, but before we dive into why, allow us to remind you that Holloway is our no-doubt pick to win this event. He’s a dominant champion and rarely slips up.
If we are forced to pick an upset, we’d look at Simonelli. He ran 13.05 and 13.07 this season, and his last race on July 12 (the 13.08) was a substantial improvement on his previous four races. It was also into a headwind, suggesting he could do even better with the wind blowing in the other direction.
The Olympics are all about timing—who is in the best shape at the perfect moment? Who runs the perfect race at the most optimal time? Simonelli’s progression and recent leap lead us to believe he could set a personal best in Paris, potentially one quick enough to challenge Holloway.
This race is the most open of all the sprinting events, as evidenced by the odds-on favorite (Cyrea Samba-Mayela) only having +250 odds. Those odds translate to a 28.6 percent implied chance, which means the perceived best athlete in the field only wins the race about once out of every four times.
We like Nugent, 22, in this race for a couple of reasons, one of which is her recent progression. The 12.28 she ran at the Jamaican national championships was a PR by a wide margin and nearly three-tenths of a second better than the 12.54 she ran two weeks prior. It was also .15 seconds better than her lifetime PR, suggesting she’s rounding into form at the perfect time.
We worry that, like McKenzie Long, Nugent could gas out because of how much she raced during his collegiate season. Regardless, the field is wide open, and she has a great chance to get into the medals.
Johnson has been an elite competitor for years, but beyond that, she’s been consistent. She ran season bests of 12.35 in 2022, 12.37 in 2023, and 12.31 in 2024, clocking the last of those at the Olympic Trials.
Sticking with the theme of her being consistent, she ran 12.37, 12.36, and 12.31 in the prelim, semi, and final at the Trials. She has to get into the Olympic final before she can win it, and her consistency gives her an extremely high floor compared to some of her competitors.
The American does not have a single medal at the Olympics or World Championships and should recognize that this will be one of if not her best chance to end that streak. She has the time to back up her odds and is just one good day away from pulling an upset.
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Grant is a sports and sports betting journalist who prides himself on delivering breaking news and insightful analyses of the industry. Grant graduated from Virginia Tech in 2021 and is feverishly pursuing his ambitions in the sports betting field.
In his free time, Grant can be found passionately watching sports, doing a workout, or searching for adventure with his friends.
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