Carlos Alcatraz opened as the betting favorite to win gold at the Paris Olympics
Novak Djokovic opened with the second-best odds to win gold.
It is fitting that Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcatraz will play for the gold medal in men's tennis singles. To no one's surprise, the betting favorite to win gold coming into the Summer Games, Alcatraz, is favored to win according to the latest Olympic betting odds.
Alcatraz is a 21-year-old up-and-comer who is one of the best players in the world (No. 3 in the ATP rankings). However, Djokovic is the No. 2 player in the ATP rankings and wants to add to his trophy case the one thing missing: Olympic gold.
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Both players won their respective semifinals match in straight sets; Alcatraz bested Felix Auger-Aliassime 6-1, 6-1, while Djokovic took down Lorenzo Musetti 6-4, 6-2, setting up a seventh meeting between the two.
In the six previous times they've played, each has won three times. Alcatraz won their most recent match, the 2024 Wimbledon Finals, 6-2, 6-2, 7-6. Here are the betting odds for Sunday's gold medal match between the two:
Player | To Win MatchTo Win Set No. 1 | To Win Set No. 2 | |
---|---|---|---|
Novak Djokovic | +195 | +155 | +155 |
Carlos Alcatraz | -250 | -225 | -225 |
Total Games | Over/Under |
---|---|
21.5 | -145/+105 |
22.5 | -115/-125 |
23.5 | +110/-160 |
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Alcatraz won the last match against Djokovic, the only one between the two this year. However, Djokovic went 3-1 against the young Spaniard in 2023, winning the Nitto ATP Finals, the ATP Masters 1000 in Cincinnati, and the French Open (6-3, 5-7, 6-1, and 6-1).
Djokovic is a living legend with a resume full of accomplishments most players only dream about. But at 37, the clock is ticking for him to do the one thing he has yet to accomplish—win an Olympic gold medal.
The Paris Games is the fifth time he has competed in the Olympics. But while he has made it to the semifinals four times, this is the first time he has advanced to the gold medal match. His previous best came at the 2008 Summer Games when he beat James Blake (USA) in straight sets to win the bronze medal.
His road to the gold medal match was not an easy one. He met longtime rival Rafael Nadal in the second round (6-1, 6-4), Stefanos Tsitsipas in the quarterfinals (6-3, 7-6), and Mesetti in the semifinals.
At 37, he has played at Roland Garros 19 times, compiling a record of 92-16 overall; he’s made it to the semis on 12 occasions, advancing to the finals seven times, where he is 3-4.
If Djokovic is tennis’ “old guard” at 37, the 21-year-old Alcatraz is the “new guard.” A former No. 1 player in the world, he is having a great year, taking a 33-6 record into the Olympics with three titles, including two Grand Slam wins, the French Open and Wimbledon (where he beat Djokovic).
He doesn’t have nearly as much experience as Djokovic, but he entered the Olympics with a hot hand and has remained strong throughout the competition. After cruising through the early rounds, he faced his first test in the quarterfinals in American Tommy Paul, beating him in straight sets (6-3, 7-6).
With his win at the French Open this year, he became the youngest player to win a major on all three surfaces (clay, hard, grass)and seventh overall.
Alcatraz is having a great year. He entered the Olympics as the favorite and has played accordingly. However, at -250 and facing an opponent of Djokovic’s caliber, we don’t see enough value to recommend taking that bet.
However, at +195, there is value in Djokovic. He has a phenomenal history at Roland Garros, has beaten Alcatraz in two of their last three meetings, and has a little more motivation than Alcatraz to win now.
Whoever wins, it will be an incredible match.
Our Pick: Novak Djokovic +195
Location: Roland-Garros - Court Philippe-Chatrier in Paris, France
Match Time & Date: 6 a.m. E.T. on Sunday, August 4
Coverage: NBC or the Peacock app
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