4 Nations Face-Off Prop Bets: Regression Looms Large Over Sweden’s Offense

• USA has clinched a spot in the finals after their win against Canada

• Jake Oettinger is projected to get the start in net for team USA against Sweden

• Sweden’s offense is averaging just 2.15 Expected Goals per game

After their latest win against Canada, team USA has clinched a spot in the 4 Nations Face-Off Championship. Even with reigning Vezina Trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck expected to sit out to help rest up for the finals, their back up goalie Jake Oettinger still possesses more than enough talent to help stall out Sweden’s anemic offense.

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USA vs. Sweden Prop Bets (8:00 EST)

With Jake Oettinger in net, team USA’s defense should have no issue with sustaining their high level of play as Sweden’s offense suffers from a lack of versatility. While Sweden has managed to score three goals in each of their two games, their low mark in Expected Goals indicates negative regression is looming large.

Sweden Team Total Under 2.5 (-118) at BetMGM Sportsbook

After entering the 4 Nations Face-Off listed as the closest contender to dethroning team Canada and USA, Sweden has severely disappointed as they have failed to secure a win in their first two games of the tournament. They still have an opportunity to make the finals if they beat USA in regulation and Canada and Finland go into overtime, yet they will have their work cut out for them as USA’s defense has excelled at limiting the amount of pressure in front of their net.

Generating pressure has already been a struggle for Sweden’s offense as they are averaging just 2.15 Expected Goals per game. To make matters worse for Sweden, USA’s backup goalie and projected starter Jake Oettinger is still an elite goaltender in his own right as the Dallas Star is averaging just 2.35 Goals Against per game and a .911 Save Percentage. Expect USA’s defense to sustain their high level of play and hold Sweden under their team total.

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Brady Tkachuk Anytime Goalscorer (+260) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Brady Tkachuk has been one of USA’s most consistent sources of offensive production as the American forward has resided near the top of the board in Expected Goals in both games of the tournament. While he did fail to find the back of the net against Canada, he still flirted with scoring as he finished the contest with an Expected Goal of 0.35 and three Shots on Goal.

With his brother Matthew Tkachuk listed as questionable on the injury report, as well as some other veterans expected to see a decrease in their time on the ice to help preserve them for the finals, Brady Tkachuk may see an uptick in his usage. This will result in a higher volume in shot attempts, increasing the probability of him scoring. For some more exposure, also sprinkle a small wager on Tkachuk to score the first goal of the contest at +1700 on FanDuel.

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Jake Guentzel Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+120) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Arguably the only player who has made more of an impact than Brady Tkachuk for team USA’s offense, Jake Guentzel has been the team MVP two games into the tournament. After scoring one goal and facilitating one assist against Finland, Guentzel followed up that performance by scoring two goals against Canada. His pressure has put him in a favorable position to score throughout the tournament as he generated a total of nine Shots on Goal.

With Guentzel surrounded by a productive group of playmakers who all excel at creating high quality scoring opportunities, the Tampa Bay forward will have plenty of chances to generate a Shot on Goal while blitzing through Sweden’s spaced out back line. Should it be reported ahead of time that Guentzel will not see a decrease in his time on ice, then escalator bet his Shots on Goal prop by sprinkling smaller wagers on his alternate overs.

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USA vs. Sweden How to Watch

• When: February 17th, 8:00 EST

• Where: TD Garden, Boston, Massachusetts

• Where to Watch: MAX, truTV, TNT, SN, TVAS