4 Nations Face-Off Championship Game Prop Bets: All Eyes on Hellebuyck

• USA opened as a small favorite to win the 4 Nations Face Off Championship

• Canada’s offense generated just 2.33 Expected Goals against Finland

• Connor Hellebuyck is averaging one Goal Against per game in his two starts

After outplaying team USA in a grueling loss in their first matchup, Canada’s offense has crashed back down to reality after mustering just 2.33 Expected Goals against Finland. With reigning Vezina Trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck making his return to the ice, expect Canada’s offense to continue to struggle while the star goalie strengthens his case for the MVP award.

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USA vs. Canada Prop Bets (8:00 EST)

After struggling to create high quality scoring opportunities against Finland’s back line, Canada’s offense is poised for another underwhelming outing with USA’s defense excelling in coverage. Should Hellebuyck manage to string together another dominant performance, then expect the USA goalie to win the 4 Nations Face-Off MVP award.

Canada Team Total Under 3 (-155) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Even though Canada managed to secure the win over Finland, negative regression looms large over their offense as they finished the contest with an Expected Goal of 2.33. Even worse, if you factor out Sidney Crosby’s empty net goal at the end of the game, then Canada only generated an Expected Goal of 1.75. Even with Cale Makar back on the ice to help give them a boost in offensive production, Canada was still unable to stretch out Finland’s back line. 

That spells potential disaster against team USA as their defense is fresh off of a competitive performance after holding Sweden to just 2.42 Expected Goals while resting some of their top talent. Especially with Hellebuyck anchoring their net as the star goalie is averaging just 2.07 Goals Against per game and a .925 Save Percentage this season. Should Canada’s team total drop down to 2.5 across all sportsbooks, then reduce the size of your wager.

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Connor Hellebuyck 4 Nations Face-Off MVP (+250) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Speaking of Hellebuyck, target the USA goalie to win the 4 Nations Face-Off MVP award as he has been instrumental in their success this tournament. In his two starts, Hellebuyck is averaging just one Goal Against per game with one of those performances coming against Canada. His high level of play in net was the difference maker as Canada’s offense finished with an Expected Goal of 3.79 while USA finished with a 3.49.

USA laid the blueprint on how to slow down Canada’s offense and that is by being physical with their star centers at the blue line before they are able to use their speed to blitz through their defense. When slowed down, Canada’s offense has struggled to create high quality Shots on Goal as their surrounding cast is smothered in coverage. Should Hellebuyck neutralize Canada’s offense and USA secures the win, then expect the Winnipeg goalie to win the award.

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Dylan Larkin Anytime Goalscorer (+575) at Caesars Sportsbook

After scoring on a breakaway against Canada, Dylan Larkin almost scored his second goal of the tournament as he finished the contest against Sweden with an Expected Goal of 0.68. The Detroit Red Wing has been able to create a high amount of pressure against opposing third lines which puts him in a great position to score. Throughout the regular season, Larkin is averaging 0.46 Expected Goals and 3.24 Shots on Goal per game.

With Jordan Binnington expected to get the start for Canada, Larkin will continue to find himself with a favorable opportunity to score as the St. Louis Blue has struggled to play at a competitive level this season. In 39 starts, Binnington ranks in the bottom half of the board in average Goals Against per game while generating a Save Percentage of .896. For some fun, also sprinkle a small wager on Larkin to be the first goal scorer (+3000) at Caesars Sportsbook.

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USA vs. Canada How to Watch

• When: February 20th, 8:00 EST

• Where: TD Garden, Boston, Massachusetts

• Where to Watch: ESPN, ESPN+, SN, TVAS