Stanley Cup Odds, Predictions, Betting Picks 2025: McDavid’s Return Gives a Boost to the Oilers

• Connor McDavid’s return from injury gives the Edmonton Oilers a major boost in production

• The Carolina Hurricanes offense continues to pace the rest of the league in Expected Goals

• The Dallas Stars offense ranks top-10 in Expected Goals For in All Situations

After initially being reported Connor McDavid would have to miss 2-3 weeks of the season while rehabbing an ankle injury, the three time Hart Memorial Trophy winner managed to make his return to the ice two weeks ahead of schedule to help keep the Edmonton Oilers afloat. Since his return from injury, the Oilers have drastically elevated their level of play on both sides of the ice as they currently rank top-7 in Expected Goals For and Expected Goals Against in All Situations.

As for the rest of the contenders, the Carolina Hurricanes offense continue to lead the league in Expected Goals with an average of 4.31 Expected Goals per game. The Hurricanes defense have also started to give them the production they need to be a well rounded contender as their back line currently ranks above league average in Expected Goals Against. The Dallas Stars and New York Rangers back lines meanwhile continue to regress as they still rank well below league average in Expected Goals Against.

NHL 2025 Stanley Cup Championship Winner Odds

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. Click on the odds in the table below to head to Caesars Sportsbook and place your bets: $1,000 First Bet on Caesars OR $250 in Bonus Bets.

Stanley Cup 2025 Predictions and Favorites to Win

Carolina Hurricanes (+1000) at FanDuel

With Carolina’s defense creeping up into the top half of the board in Expected Goals Against in All Situations, the Hurricanes are one of the few teams in the league who rank above league average in both Expected Goals For and Expected Goals Against. The Hurricanes also get the benefit of receiving a high amount of production from their goaltending as Pyotr Kochetkov and Frederik Andersen currently rank top-13 in Goals Against per game while possessing a combined Save Percentage of .919.

By being able to generate a high level of production at all three areas of the ice, the Hurricanes are in a favorable position to run away with the Metropolitan division title and make a deep run in the playoffs. Not only do the Hurricanes possess the highest point percentage in the division, but they also possess the highest point percentage in the Eastern Conference. Should their defense be able to maintain their high marks in Expected Goals Against, then the Hurricanes will be worth an addition to the portfolio.

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Edmonton Oilers (+1100) at Caesars

Since Connor McDavid made his return to the ice two weeks ahead of schedule, the Edmonton Oilers have increased their level of production on both sides of the ice as they currently rank top-7 in both Expected Goals For and Expected Goals Against in All Situations. The Oilers also managed to go 2-2 while McDavid was out with an injury, limiting the damage done and keeping them still in contention for the Pacific division title.

Unfortunately for the Oilers, McDavid can not turnaround their low level of play from their starting goaltender Stuart Skinner as he continues to struggle in net. As of writing, Skinner is averaging 3.22 Goals Against per game and a lowly Save Percentage of .881. With Calvin Pickard possessing better marks in both metrics, it may be time for a change should the Oilers want to increase their chances of making a run in the playoffs. Until that happens, then pass on the Oilers current odds to win the Stanley Cup.

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New York Rangers (+1200) at FanDuel

While the New York Rangers offense continues to pace a majority of the league in Expected Goals For, their defense has yet to give them the production they need to be a well rounded contender as their back line currently ranks 27th overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Their inability to lessen the quality of opposing Shots on Goal have affected Igor Shesterkin’s ability to wall them off as he has dropped down to as low as 33rd overall in average Goals Against per game.

With a lack of production from their defense, the New York Rangers will continue to play in high variance contests which hurts their chances of sustaining a hot stretch of play. Even when their offense averages over four Expected Goals per game, the Rangers will be prone to cold stretches when they face off against productive defenses. Until their back line drastically elevates their level of play, then pass on the Rangers current odds to win the Stanley Cup championship.

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Who Will Win the Stanley Cup in 2025? 

My Pick - Dallas Stars (+1000) at Caesars

Speaking of poor defensive play, the Dallas Stars continue to struggle with limiting the number of Shots on Goal being sent towards their net as their back line currently ranks below league average in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Fortunately for the Stars, Jake Oettinger and Casey DeSmith have managed to mask their lack of defensive production as both goalies currently rank top-10 in average Goals Against per game.

The Stars offense have also continued to improve since their slow start to the season as their front line has crept into the top-10 in Expected Goals For in All Situations. Their offense being able to play at a high level this early on after reconfiguring their front lines in the offseason bodes well for their season long success. Especially when their defense is expected to round back into form after ranking top-3 in Expected Goals Against earlier in the year. Bet the Stars now before their odds continue to decline.

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Stanley Cup Winner History 

For the first time since their inception into the league, the Florida Panthers are Stanley Cup champions. Well deserved after being listed as the favorite to win the championship for a majority of the year, playing as one of the best units on both sides of the ice. They enter the 2025 season as one of the favorites once again, only being thwarted by the Edmonton Oilers for the top spot on the oddsboard. 

Repeating as a champion won’t be easy as there is seemingly more parity than ever before as eight teams are very close together in their listed odds to win the Stanley Cup. Should the Panthers manage to pull it off and win it all again in 2025, then they would be the first team to repeat as champions since the Tampa Bay Lightning did it back in 2020-2021.

Stanley Cup Winners

How to Read Stanley Cup Winner Odds 

When looking to make any type of wager, it’s key to know how the listed odds work before placing it. While no one has a minus sign in front of them as of writing, (-130 for example), you may see that later on should someone pull ahead as the universal favorite. At -130 odds, that means you would need to wager $130 to profit $100. With the Dallas Stars currently at +1000, that means a $100 wager would profit you $1,000 if they win the Stanley Cup.

How to Choose the Best Sportsbook for Betting on the Stanley Cup

It’s vital to have as many sportsbooks as you can get in order to line shop. The goal of betting on the Stanley Cup winner is to get the biggest pieces as hedges while having multiple profiting scenarios. Starting with the Dallas Stars, you can find them as low as +900 at BetMGM while their highest listed odds are +1000 at Caesars. That is a difference of $100 in profit for a $100 bettor should the Stars win the Stanley Cup.

Each sportsbook also has their own unique new user promotions, giving their users a major head start with bonus bets during the season. FanDuel Sportsbook for example is giving new users $150 in bonus bets after creating an account and winning your first bet of at least $5.

*Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l terms.