2019 NHL Playoffs: St. Louis Blues vs Boston Bruins - Odds and Predictions for the Stanley Cup Finals

Where: TD Garden – Boston, MA.

When: Monday, May 27, 8PM EST

How (TV/Radio): NBC, Sportsnet, CBC, TVAS | WFAN

St. Louis Blues vs Boston Bruins: Offense

The Bruins finished third overall in the Eastern conference this season and it’s easy to see why. The Bruins finished 11th overall in goals scored and took the 9th most shots on goal in the league. They finished tenth overall in the faceoff circle and 13th is shooting percentage. The real game changer here was their third-best in the league power play. This series with St. Louis will test the mettle of both teams when it comes to any man advantage situations.

Boston has made it to the finals in two less games than the Blues. They’ve scored 57 goals as a team giving them an average of 33.6 shots per game. They are 53.3 percent in the faceoff circle and, not surprisingly, have a power play success rate of 34 percent in the postseason. If Brad Marchand and the Bruins can get under the skin of the Blues, they’ll could back St. Louis into an early corner.

The St. Louis Blues finished their 2019 campaign right in the middle of the pack when it came to offensive prowess. Having that defensive, grinding mentality as a team, the Blues finished the year 15th overall in both goals and shots for. They had the 16th best shooting percentage. However, numbers that haven’t so far translated into the playoffs thus far are their tenth overall power play from the regular season and their sixth best faceoff percentage. These facts need to change to have any hopes of beating the Bruins.

Although not known as an offensive dynamo throughout the first half of the playoffs, the Blues will be heading into the finals with major momentum in the scoring department after scoring a combined ten goals in their final two games against the Sharks. The Blues are tied with the Bruins with 57 goals scored – averaging an even three goals per game. Special teams is still the game changer for the Blues as they still only hover around 19 percent success on the power play. They are also most likely to struggle against the Bruins in the faceoff circle as they are below 50 percent in faceoff wins this postseason.

Which team has the best defense?

Defensively, these teams have a lot more in common. The Bruins finished the regular season third in fewest goals allowed and sixth in fewest shots against. They were 16th overall when it came to penalty killing, which says a lot as the Bruins also finished 30th in the entire league when it came to taking the most penalties.

The playoffs have shown improvements for the Bruins. Their puck possession game is strong and, in total, have only allowed 33 goals in this year’s postseason (1.94 per game on average). They also have a strong 86.3 percent success rate when killing penalties. The noticeable weakness is how many shots they allow on average. Tuukka Rask in an elite goaltender but even the best will crack when facing an average of 32.4 shots per game.

St. Louis played a much more consistent and disciplined defensive game this season – especially in the latter half. St. Louis allowed the fifth fewest goals in the league and the fourth fewest shots against. They had the ninth best penalty kill in the NHL and finished eighth overall for fewest penalties taken.

Across their 19 games in the postseason, the Blues have allowed 48 goals against (2.53 per game). The penalty kill sits at only a 78 percent success rate. If things don’t change, this stat is likely to be exposed by the Boston Bruins. However, the Blues are still tight on the defensive end and have been allowing only an average of 28 shots against per game.

Goaltending: Who is the best goalie? 

Boston goalie Tuukka Rask had what can be described as a very Tuukka Rask regular season – which is really, really good. He finished the year with a record of 27-13-5. His goals against average for the year was 2.48 and his save percentage finished at .912. He faced an average of 27 shots per game and he finished the year with four shutouts.

Rask has been as solid as the Bruins could possibly expect from him and is putting up MVP-calibre numbers in the playoffs. Across 17 games, Rask has a goals against average of 1.84 and a save percentage of .942 – the best of any goalie in the playoffs this year. He also has two shutouts in the postseason.

Rookie goaltender Jordan Binnington put up incredible numbers for the St. Louis Blues in the second half of the season and he was rewarded with a Calder trophy nomination. Binnington finished the regular season with a 24-5-1 record. He had a .927 save percentage and 1.89 goals against average. He also had five shutouts by season’s end.

Binnington continued to shine in the early playoffs but, even though they eliminated the Sharks and find themselves in the finals, he showed more frequently shakey moments as the tournament progressed. Going up against Rask could be a true sign of how important playoff experience can be. Binnington has played 19 games this postseason and has posted a goals against average of 2.36 and a .914 save percentage. He is 12-7 with one shutout, one assist, and four penalty minutes.

Playoff Performers

Bruins winger Brad Marchand is putting up quite the case for a Conn Smythe trophy as the most valuable player in the postseason. Although still managing to get under the skin of his opponents, Marchand sits second in playoff scoring – behind only the now-eliminated Logan Couture by two points.

Marchand has tallied seven goals and added 11 assists. He is a plus-6 throughout the playoffs and has scored two power play goals and has ten power play points overall. Marchand has also registered two game-winning goals in the playoffs. He has 67 shots on net in his 17 games.

However, only two points behind Marchand is the Blues’ Jaden Schwartz. Schwartz has two hat tricks this postseason and he sits third-overall in the playoff scoring race – making his own case to be named playoff MVP.

With those hat tricks, Schwartz has 12 goals and four assists. Like Marchand, he is a plus-6 butm unlike Marchand (who has ten minutes in penalties), Schwartz has avoided the penalty box altogether. Schwartz has two power play goals and two game-winning goals. He has 53 shots on net giving him a shooting percentage of 22.6 – the best shooting percentage within the top-15 players in the playoffs. He also has a 60 percent faceoff success rate.

Boston Bruins Injury Report

D Zdeno Chara – day-to-day (undisclosed)

F Chris Wagner – day-to-day (right arm)

D Kevan Miller – day-to-day (lower-body)

D Urho Vaakanainen – IR (concussion)

St. Louis Blues Injury Report

D Vince Dunn – day-to-day (upper-body)

F Erik Foley – IR (concussion)

Boston Bruins at St. Louis Blues Predictions and Odds for the Stanley Cup Finals

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Moneyline

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Total Goals

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Puck Line

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