Will Kirill Kaprizov’s Injury Stop Him From Winning the Hart Memorial Trophy?

• Kirill Kaprizov made his return from injury after missing a month of play

• The Minnesota Wild are nine points back from Winnipeg for first in the Central division standings

• The Wild offense ranks near dead last in Expected Goals For in All Situations and in 5-on-5 Play

After building a strong case for winning the Hart Memorial Trophy earlier in the year, the Minnesota Wild’s Kirill Kaprizov has seen his odds come crashing down after he suffered a lower-body injury in late December. During his absence, the top contenders continued to rack up points at a blistering fast pace and have created some separation on the oddsboard. With Kaprizov back on the ice, the Wild forward will need to quickly round back into form in order to salvage his hopes of winning the MVP award.

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The Top Contenders

While Kaprizov was out with an injury, reigning Hart Memorial Trophy winner Nathan MacKinnon and Leon Draisaitl continued to rack up points to help strengthen their positions as the betting favorites for the award. Even though MacKinnon currently leads the league with 77 total points, Draisaitl still edges him out by possessing a higher +/- and nearly double the amount of goals scored. 

The Winnipeg Jets Connor Hellebuyck has also steadily chipped away at the top contenders lead on the oddsboard as the front runner for the Vezina Trophy continues to play at a very high level. Hellebuyck is averaging an astonishing 2.02 Goals Against per game while leading all qualified goalies in goalie wins and in Save Percentage. Even when the Jets back line dipped down the board in Expected Goals Against in All Situations, that did not stop Hellebuyck from sustaining his high marks in net.

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Is Kaprizov Worth a Wager at His Current Odds to Win the Award?

In order for Kaprizov (+1400) to halt his fall down the oddsboard, the Wild forward will need to quickly round back into form and generate points at a quicker pace than MacKinnon and Draisaitl. Kaprizov is just slightly off their pace as he is averaging 1.40 points per game while the previously mentioned duo are averaging 1.50. Kaprizov did show signs of progression as he managed to make an immediate impact in his return from injury, scoring two points in his last three outings.

Unfortunately for Kaprizov, it will be a struggle to match the top contenders pace of points as the Wild forward is surrounded by a severely underwhelming cast of playmakers. As of writing, the Wild offense ranks 27th in Expected Goals For in All Situations with an average of 2.80 Expected Goals per game. His linemates inability to capitalize on the high quality shooting lanes he creates by commanding defensive attention handicaps his chances of generating an assist, lessening the pace of his points in the process.

Minnesota trickling down the Central division standings is also lessening the impact he has on the team. At the halfway point of the season, the Wild are clinging on to dear life for the last auto berth in the playoffs as they possess just a two point lead over Colorado for the third spot in the division standings. Should the Avs leap over them, then the Wild’s chances to make the playoffs take a drastic hit as they will be forced to compete against the rest of the Western Conference for one of the two wildcard spots.

With his linemates handicapping his pace of points, as well as the team as a whole falling down the standings, pass on Kaprizov at his current odds to win the Hart Memorial Trophy.

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