The Minnesota Wild and Winnipeg Jets are tied for first with 40 total points apiece
Minnesota leads the Central division in point percentage
The Dallas Stars' defense ranks 8th overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations
After a 7-2-1 stretch in their last 10 games, the Minnesota Wild are now tied with the Winnipeg Jets for first place in the Central Division standings with 40 total points apiece. Minnesota’s defense continues to terrorize opposing front lines with their suffocating coverage as the Wild currently rank second overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Variance still plays a major factor as their offense continues to underwhelm which hurts their chances of sustaining their current pace of points.
As for the rest of the division title contenders, the Winnipeg Jets have fallen back down to reality after a hot start to the season. While they are still in first place in the division standings, regression looms large until their defense rounds back into form. The Dallas Stars meanwhile have shown flashes of why they were listed as one of the betting favorites to win the Stanley Cup heading into the year as they currently rank above league average in both Expected Goals For and Expected Goals Against in All Situations.
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After a hot stretch of play, the Minnesota Wild are tied with the Winnipeg Jets for first place with 40 total points apiece.
Even after Hart Memorial Trophy contender Kirill Kaprizov made his return from injury, Minnesota’s offense has still struggled with generating high-quality Shots on Goal as they currently rank in the bottom half of the board in Expected Goals For in All Situations. Other than Kaprizov and Matt Boldy, no one else on the Wild averages more than 0.30 Expected Goals per game.
Fortunately for Minnesota, their defense continues to pace a majority of the league in Expected Goals Against in All Situations which helps keep contests tight enough for their offense to remain competitive. Filip Gustavsson has played a major role in their high marks on defense as the Vezina Trophy contender leads the league in Goals Against per game and in Save Percentage. Should Minnesota’s offense round back into form, then the Wild will be worth a mid season wager to win the Central division title.
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After possessing a sizable lead over the rest of the division in total points, the Winnipeg Jets are now prone to stumbling down the board while battling against harsh regression. Their level of production on defense has drastically declined over the past few weeks, leaving the Jets vulnerable to going through a cold stretch of play while their offense continues to rank below league average in Expected Goals For in All Situations.
Fortunately for Winnipeg, reigning Vezina Trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck has been able to mask their struggles on defense with his own high level of individual production. Even with the Jets star goalie playing at a very high level, he is in desperate need of his back line rounding back into form to help maintain his current marks in net. Until the Jets defense rounds back into dominant form, then pass on their current odds to win the division title.
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It’s been a frustrating start to the year for the Colorado Avalanche as they are currently in fourth place in the Central division standings and have just a one point lead over the Calgary Flames for the last wildcard spot. A shockingly poor start for a team who currently ranks above league average in both Expected Goals For and Expected Goals Against in All Situations, yet their lack of goaltending brought in a high amount of variance into their contest.
Knowing they needed to make a change in net to help salvage their season, the Avs traded away Alexandar Georgiev to the San Jose Sharks for Mackenzie Blackwood. A bit of a head scratching move as Blackwood has not fared much better in terms of average Goals Against per game, yet his high Save Percentage indicates positive regression is looming large. Especially since he gets the benefit of playing behind a far better back line as the Avs defense excels at smothering opposing shot attempts.
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With the Minnesota Wild and Winnipeg Jets battling through variance due to a lack of production on one side of the ice, the Dallas Stars have the opportunity to close the gap between them in the division standings as they have started to hit their stride. As of writing, the Stars are one of the few teams in the league who rank top-10 in both Expected Goals For and Expected Goals Against in All Situations.
Not only have the Stars dominated the middle of the ice, but their goaltending has continued to play at a very high level as both Jake Oettinger and Casey DeSmith rank top-15 in Goals Against per game while possessing a combined Save Percentage of .909. With a competitive level of production at all three areas of the ice, the Stars are in the best position to spark a hot stretch of play and run away with the division title. Bet on Dallas to win the Central now before their odds steadily decline.
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The Dallas Stars won the Central division in 2023-2024, claiming their fourth title since joining the division in 2013.
The Central division has seen plenty of changes over the years, constantly welcoming in new teams as others depart due to realignment. The Detroit Red Wings currently lead the division for most division titles, winning the division 13 times before moving to the Atlantic division. For teams still in the Central, the Dallas Stars and St. Louis Blues are tied for first with four division titles apiece. The Colorado Avalanche were the last Central division winner to also win the Stanley Cup, winning both titles in 2021-2022.
Season | Team |
---|---|
2023-2024 | Dallas Stars |
2022-2023 | Colorado Avalanche |
2021-2022 | Colorado Avalanche |
2020-2021 | Carolina Hurricanes |
2019-2020 | St. Louis Blues |
When making a wager on the Central division market, it’s vital to acquire as many online sportsbooks as you can get. This allows you to line shop the market as odds can drastically vary between each sportsbook. When betting on the Stars to win the Central division title, their odds can be found as high as +240 at BetMGM and as low as +230 at Caesars. That is a difference of $10 in profit for a $100 bettor.
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Central Division Winner Odds - Dallas Stars | +240 | +230 | +230 |
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Before making any type of wager, it’s important to know how the listed odds work. Should you bet on the Stars to win the Central division title at their current odds of +240, then a $100 wager would profit you $240 if they win the division. Should you wait to see if they create a gap between them and the rest of the pack and are listed with a minus sign in front of their odds (ex: -130), then you would need to wager $130 to profit $100.
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