Best NHL Prop Bets Today: Positive Regression Looms Large Over the Panthers Offense

After being held to just one goal in a 5-1 loss to the Tampa Bay Lightning in game three of their series, positive regression looms large over the Florida Panthers offense per their previous mark in Expected Goals. Later in the night, we turn our attention towards the Colorado Avalanche as their offense has the opportunity to consistently pressure the Dallas Stars net by skating circles around their regressing defense.

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Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Florida Panthers - Prop Bets (7:00 PM, EST)

Alternate Full Game Over 6.5 (+140) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Don’t let the Panthers performance in game three of their series against Tampa Bay fool you, their offense did an excellent job at pressuring the Lightning’s net for the full duration of their contest. Even though they were held to just one goal, the Panthers finished the night with five players generating an Expected Goal of 0.30 or higher and a total Expected Goal of 3.70. Aleksander Barkov led the way with 0.77 Expected Goals but failed to find the back of the net as Matthew Tkachuk scored their only goal of the contest.

The Panthers performance was on par for how they performed throughout the regular season as the reigning Stanley Cup champions entered the playoffs ranked second overall in Expected Goals For in All Situations with an average of 3.49 Expected Goals per game. Their versatility helps open up wider shooting lanes for their front line to exploit as an astonishing six players average over 0.30 Expected Goals with five of them averaging over 2.5 Shots on Goal per game.

On the other side of the ice, the Tampa Bay Lighting also had no issue with generating high quality scoring opportunities as their offense finished the contest with an Expected Goal of 3.69. Even with Sergei Bobrovsky anchoring their net, the former Vezina Trophy winner was forced to consistently shift across the crease which opened up wider gaps behind him for the Lightning to exploit. For some more exposure, escalator bet the full game over by sprinkling smaller wagers on the alternate totals.

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Sam Bennett Anytime Goalscorer (+240) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Expect Sam Bennett to play a major role in the Florida Panthers turnaround as he has been one of their most consistent sources of offensive production throughout the regular season. Bennett has managed to carry over his high level of play into the playoffs as he is coming off a performance where he generated 0.42 Expected Goals in game three of their series. Back the Panthers forward to continue to pressure the net at a heavy rate against a stretched out Lightning defense and contribute to the full game over.

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Colorado Avalanche vs. Dallas Stars - Prop Bets (9:30 PM, EST)

Colorado Avalanche Team Total Over 3.5 (+115) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Unlike the Panthers, the Colorado Avalanche were able to capitalize on their high quality scoring opportunities as the Avs scored four goals while generating an Expected Goal of 4.96 in game four of their series against Dallas. A much needed performance after steadily dipping down the board in Expected Goals over the past few weeks as the Avs finished the regular season ranked 13th overall in Expected Goals For in All Situations with an average of 3.16 Expected Goals per game.

In game five against Dallas, Colorado will be in a favorable position to pressure the net at a consistent rate as they face off against a Stars defense who ranks 17th  in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Their lack of coverage leaves their goaltending exposed to high quality Shots on Goal, making it tough to hold off the Avs relentless spread out attack. Especially with the Avs possessing more than enough playmakers to stretch out their back line as eight players average more than 0.25 Expected Goals per game.

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Nathan MacKinnon Anytime Goalscorer (+135) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Nathan MacKinnon has been a thorn in the Dallas Stars side throughout the playoffs as the reigning Hart Memorial Trophy winner has scored four goals in the first four games of their series while generating an Expected Goal of 0.59, 0.56, 1.52, and 0.23. With the Stars back line struggling to stay in front of the puck, this opens up wider gaps in coverage for MacKinnon to exploit when weaving the puck through traffic. Expect MacKinnon to sustain his high level of play and score his fifth goal of the series.

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