Best NHL Prop Bets Today: Continue to Fade the St. Louis Blues Front Line

After putting together a dominant performance in game two of their series against St. Louis, the Winnipeg Jets back line will have the opportunity to carry over their momentum into game three as the Blues offense continues to struggle with generating high quality scoring opportunities. Before that takes place, we target a team total over in the matchup between Toronto and Ottawa as the Maple Leafs offense faces off against a Senators defense who struggles to defend their net.

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Winnipeg Jets vs. St. Louis Blues - Prop Bets (9:30 PM, EST)

St. Louis Blues Team Total Under 2.5 (-120) at BetMGM Sportsbook

After struggling to wall off the St. Louis front line in the first game of their series, the Winnipeg Jets star goalie Connor Hellebuyck managed to round back into form in game two and held the Blues to just one goal in a 2-1 victory. Hellebuyck’s back line played a major role in his success in game two as they consistently smothered the Blues shot attempts for the full duration of their contest, holding their offense to an Expected Goal of 1.57.

Winnipeg’s defense has been the strength of their team this season as the Jets back line finished the regular season ranked fourth overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations with an average of 2.82 Expected Goals Against per game. While Hellebuyck is a star talent in his own right, his back line being able to lessen the quality of opposing Shots on Goal drastically helps him string together dominant performances as the reigning Vezina Trophy winner averages just 2.01 Goals Against per game.

Against St. Louis, expect the Jets defense to continue to thrive as they face off against a Blues front line who ranks 31st in Expected Goals For in All Situations. Especially with the Blues offense lacking the playmakers needed to stretch out the Jets coverage as only four players average more than 0.25 Expected Goals per game. Their lack of versatility allows Connor Hellebuyck to remain fairly still in net which decreases the chances of a gap opening up behind him whenever he shifts across the crease.

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Justin Faulk Under 1.5 Shots on Goal (-145) at BetMGM Sportsbook

With the Jets back line excelling in coverage, the St. Louis Blues defenseman Justin Faulk will struggle to weave the puck through traffic from the blue line as the quality of his shooting lanes will be very poor. Faulk already struggles with generating high quality shot attempts as he enters the contest averaging just 0.08 Expected Goals and 1.59 Shots on Goal per game. Barring a broken play or turnover, expect Faulk to be held under the total on his Shots on Goal prop.

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Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Ottawa Senators - Prop Bets (7:00 PM, EST)

Toronto Maple Leafs Team Total Over 2.5 (-155) at BetMGM Sportsbook

The Toronto Maple Leafs have had no issue with pressuring the Ottawa Senators net at a consistent rate in the first two games of their series as they have scored a combined nine goals enroute to a 2-0 series lead. Their ability to consistently generate high quality Shot on Goals is vital for their success as it helps mask their struggles on defense. While their offense ranks in the top half of the board in Expected Goals For in All Situations, their back line ranks 22nd in Expected Goals Against.

Against Ottawa, expect the Maple Leafs offense to continue to pressure their net at a high rate as they face off against a Senators back line who ranks below league average in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Even with their goaltending giving them a high level of individual production, Linus Ullmark will struggle to wall off the Maple Leafs spread out attack as their versatility will have him constantly scrambling. Should the Maple Leafs team total climb up to a flat three, then reduce the size of your wager.

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Auston Matthews Anytime Goalscorer (+140) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Correlating this prop with the previously mentioned one, Auston Matthews has been one of the most consistent sources of offensive production in the league as the former Hart Memorial Trophy winner averages 0.61 Expected Goals per game. With the Senators back line struggling in coverage as their low mark in Expected Goals Against in All Situations indicates, expect Matthews to face minimal resistance in his efforts of pressuring the net and score his first goal of the series.

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