Best NHL Prop Bets Today: Negative Regression Looms Large Over the Oilers

After narrowly surviving a scare in the first game of their series against Edmonton, the Los Angeles Kings defense are in a position to dominate once again with Connor McDavid’s surrounding cast struggling to give him the support he needs to space out their back line. Before that takes place, we turn our attention towards the Washington Capitals as their offense has the opportunity to light up the scoreboard by consistently picking apart the Montreal Canadiens gaps in coverage.

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Edmonton Oilers vs. Los Angeles Kings - Prop Bets (10:00 PM, EST)

Edmonton Oilers Team Total Under 3 (-145) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Even though the Edmonton Oilers managed to tie it up 5-5 late in their first game of the series against Los Angeles, negative regression looms large as their Expected Goal clocked in at 2.32. It took a herculean effort from Connor McDavid to tie the contest up as the three time Hart Memorial Trophy winner accounted for two assists and one goal in the last ten minutes of the third period.

Before McDavid’s last ditch effort, the Los Angeles Kings back line were dominant and consistently smothered the Oilers shot attempts. A level of play we have been accustomed to from the Kings back line this season as their defense finished the regular season ranked first in Expected Goals Against in All Situations with an average of 2.61 Expected Goals Against per game. In regard to Expected Goals, no one on the Oilers finished the contest with an Expected Goal higher than 0.26.

Expect the Kings to continue to shade their coverage towards McDavid by making physical contact with the future hall of famer before he crosses the blue line. This forces the Oilers to rely on their surrounding cast to beat them which is a daunting task with the Kings excelling in coverage. Darcy Kuemper is also a star talent in his own right as the Kings goalie averages just 2.02 Goals Against per game. Should the Oilers team total drop down to 2.5 before you are able to place a bet, then reduce the size of your wager.

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Kevin Fiala Anytime Goalscorer (+195) at FanDuel Sportsbook

On the other side of the ice, the Kings front line had no issue with consistently pressuring the Oilers net as their offense finished the contest with an Expected Goal of 4.63. Even though Kevin Fiala failed to score in their initial matchup, the Kings forward will have the opportunity to round back into form as he averages 0.35 Expected Goals per game. Primarily if Stuart Skinner gets the starting nod for game two as the Oilers struggling goalie ranks in the bottom half of the board in average Goals Against per game.

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Montreal Canadiens vs. Washington Capitals - Prop Bets (7:00 PM, EST)

Washington Capitals Team Total Over 3.5 (+105) at BetMGM Sportsbook

After entering the year as a fringe playoff contender per their preseason odds to play in the postseason, the Washington Capitals have managed to secure the first overall seed in the Eastern Conference and nearly thwarted the Winnipeg Jets for the Presidents’ Trophy. Their offense played a major role in their success as the Capitals front line ended the regular season ranked sixth overall in Expected Goals For in All Situations with an average of 3.34 Expected Goals per game.

Against Montreal, the Capitals front line will have the opportunity to light up the scoreboard as they face off against a Canadiens back line who ranks 30th in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Especially with Sam Montembeault anchoring their net as the Canadiens starting goalie averages 2.82 Goals Against per game. With minimal coverage in front of him, expect Montembeault to continue to struggle as he will have to consistently shift across the crease in an attempt to ward off the Capitals Shots on Goal.

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Alexander Ovechkin Anytime Goalscorer (+120) at FanDuel Sportsbook

As for who will do the scoring for Washington, Alexander Ovechkin has been their most consistent source of offensive production as the Capitals captain is averaging 0.48 Expected Goals and 3.65 Shots on Goal per game. Even in his twilight years, Ovechkin has still been able to pressure the net at a consistent rate due to his linemate Tom Wilson pulling defensive attention away from him. This helps open up higher quality shooting lanes for Ovechkin to exploit which drastically increases his chances of scoring.

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