The Carolina Hurricanes are in a position to spoil Montreal's chances of making the playoffs as their front line should be able to consistently pressure the Canadiens net and light up the scoreboard. After the conclusion of their contest, we target a team total under in the matchup between Edmonton and San Jose as the Oilers defense faces off against a Sharks offense who ranks near dead last in Expected Goals Against in All Situations.
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The stakes are as high as it gets for the Montreal Canadiens as they head into their last game of the season with a two point lead over Columbus in the Eastern Conference wildcard standings for the last spot in the playoffs. Should the Canadiens win in regulation, or take Carolina to overtime, then they will clinch the last wildcard spot. If they lose, then the Columbus Blue Jackets have the opportunity to leap over them if they beat the New York Islanders in regulation.
Unfortunately for Montreal, their lack of defensive production hurts their chances of keeping the contest tight enough to go to overtime as their back line ranks 30th overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations with an average of 3.48 Expected Goals Against per game. Their goaltending also fails to give them the protection they need to mask their struggles on defense as their starting goalie Sam Montembeault averages nearly three Goals Against per game and a .901 Save Percentage.
To make matters worse for Montreal, they face off against a Carolina front line who excels at pressuring the net as their offense leads the league in Expected Goals For in All Situations and in 5-on-5 Play. With the Canadiens struggling to stay in front of the puck, the Hurricanes will have the opportunity to sustain their high level of play by consistently exploiting their gaps in coverage to help generate high quality Shots on Goal. Should the Hurricanes team total climb up to a flat three, then reduce the size of your wager.
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Seth Jarvis has been Carolina’s most consistent source of offensive production since being slotted into Sebastion Aho’s line as the Hurricanes forward is averaging 0.42 Expected Goals per game. With Aho commanding defensive attention away from him, Jarvis has been able to improve the quality of his shot attempts by capitalizing on the wider shooting lanes his teammate creates. Expect Jarvis to continue to thrive against the Canadiens underwhelming coverage and end his regular season with a goal.
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While Edmonton’s offense hogs most of the spotlight due to their abundance of star players, the Oilers back line have quietly been the more productive unit as their defense ranks second overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Their defense has also recently received a boost in production with Calvin Pickard taking the reins as their starting goalie as the former backup actually possesses better marks than Stuart Skinner in average Goals Against per game and in Save Percentage.
Every bit of their defensive production will be on full display against San Jose as they face off against a Sharks offense who ranks 30th overall in Expected Goals For in All Situations with an average of 2.73 Expected Goals per game. Especially with the Sharks lacking the versatility needed to stretch out their coverage to help open up wider shooting lanes in front of the Oilers net. Other than Calder Memorial Trophy contender Macklin Celebrini, only two other Sharks average over 0.25 Expected Goals per game.
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With the Sharks back line struggling in coverage, Connor McDavid will have the opportunity to pressure their net at a consistent rate as the future hall of famer excels at weaving the puck through traffic to set up a Shot on Goal. It is worth noting that McDavid may be on a minutes restriction to help remain fresh before the start of the playoffs, making it worth monitoring to see if any late news comes out involving his availability. Should it be reported McDavid will see a slash in his minutes, then pass on this prop.
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