With minimal support from their back line, the Detroit Red Wings goaltending will be under a high amount of pressure as the Florida Panthers star studded offense should have no issue with consistently creating high quality Shots on Goal. Later in the night, we turn our attention towards the Vegas Golden Knights as the current Pacific division leaders will have the opportunity to pad their lead in the division standings with a favorable matchup against the Seattle Kraken.
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Detroit’s hopes of making the playoffs look bleak at this point as they are currently eight points back from Montreal in the Eastern Conference wildcard standings for the last wildcard spot in the playoffs. Not only would they need to finish out the year undefeated, but they would also need Montreal to lose out. To make matters worse for Detroit, they have the third hardest remaining strength of schedule which drastically reduces their chances of winning their last five games.
Detroit’s lack of defensive production holds them back from being a well rounded unit as their back line ranks 25th overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations with an average of 3.29 Expected Goals Against per game. Their lack of coverage handicaps their goalies ability to play at a high level as all three goaltenders rank in the bottom half of the board in average Goals Against per game. This brings in a higher amount of variance in their contests, reducing their chances of winning at a consistent rate.
Their struggles on defense are poised to persist against Florida as the reigning Stanley Cup champions excel at pressuring the net. Even while dealing with injuries, the Panthers offense still ranks second overall in Expected Goals For in All Situations and sixth in 5-on-5 Play. Their top line is arguably one of the most dangerous units in the league as all three players average over 0.30 Expected Goals per game. With minimal resistance between them and the net, expect the Panthers to clear the over on their team total.
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Since being traded to the Florida Panthers, Brad Marchand has been able to sustain his high level of play as the newly acquired forward is averaging 0.42 Expected Goals and 2.78 Shots on Goal per game. His linemates ability to command defensive attention helps open up higher quality shooting lanes for him to exploit which increases his chances of scoring. With the Red Wings back line struggling in coverage, expect Marchand to consistently pressure their net and score his 22nd goal of the season.
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While the Vegas Golden Knights high powered front line hogs most of the spotlight, their back line has quietly improved over the year as their defense heads into the final stretch of the season ranked sixth overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Their goaltending has also given them a higher level of individual production over the past few weeks of play as Adin Hill heads into Thursday’s contest averaging just 2.49 Goals Against per game and a .906 Save Percentage.
Against Seattle, the Golden Knights defense will have the opportunity to build on their momentum as they face off against a Kraken front line who ranks 26th in Expected Goals For in All Situations. Especially with the Kraken lacking the versatility needed to stretch out their back line, allowing the Golden Knights to anchor in coverage which helps lessen the quality of their shooting lanes. With minimal pressure in front of him, expect Hill to string together another dominant performance in the Golden Knights net.
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Not only does Seattle’s offense struggle to play at a competitive level, but their back line also severely underwhelms as their defense ranks in the bottom ten in Expected Goals Against in All Situations and in 5-on-5 Play. Seattle’s lack of coverage will allow the Golden Knights offense to consistently pressure their net and set a scoring pace too fast for the Kraken to keep up with. For some more exposure, escalator bet the Golden Knights puck line by sprinkling smaller wagers on their alternate lines.
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