Even with Macklin Celebrini injecting some life into San Jose’s offense, it is still not enough to crack the Minnesota Wild back line as their defense ranks well above league average in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Later in the night, we target another team total under as the St. Louis Blues anemic offense faces off against an Edmonton defense who is expected to receive a major bump in production from their goaltending with Calvin Pickard getting the start in net.
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After going 4-4-2 in their last 10 contests, the Minnesota Wild are starting to flirt with danger as they currently possess just a four point lead over Calgary in the Western Conference wildcard standings for the last wildcard spot in the playoffs. Fortunately for Minnesota, they have the second easiest remaining strength of schedule to help finish out the year strong while the Flames are in the middle of the pack.
Heading into Wednesday, Minnesota is in a favorable position to pad their lead over Calgary in the wildcard standings as they face off against the lowly San Jose Sharks and their underwhelming offense. Generating high quality scoring opportunities has been a struggle for the Sharks this season as their offense ranks 29th overall in Expected Goals For in All Situations. Other than Calder Memorial Trophy contender Macklin Celebrini, only two other Sharks average more than 0.25 Expected Goals per game.
Their struggles on offense are poised to persist against Minnesota as the Wild back line have excelled in coverage this season as their above league average mark in Expected Goals Against in All Situations indicates. Minnesota’s goaltending also gives them a high level of production on a nightly basis as Filip Gustavsson ranks top-15 in average Goals Against per game while generating a Save Percentage of .915. Should the Sharks team total drop down to a flat two, then reduce the size of your wager.
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Since the start of the season, Timothy Liljegren has struggled with generating high quality shot attempts as the Sharks defenseman is averaging just 0.07 Expected Goals and 1.56 Shots on Goal per game. Against Minnesota’s back line, Liljegren will continue to underwhelm in his efforts of generating Shots on Goal from the blue line as their suffocating coverage will halt the puck before reaching the net. Barring a broken play or turnover in transition, expect Liljegren to be held under his total on his Shots on Goal prop.
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With their star players out with injuries, it’s more vital than ever the Edmonton Oilers back line are able to sustain their high level of play to help keep them competitive in their contests. Fortunately for Edmonton, their back line excels in coverage as the Oilers defense ranks fifth overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Their goaltending has also improved with Calvin Pickard filling in for the injured Stuart Skinner as the backup goalie grades out better in average Goals Against per game and in Save Percentage.
Against St. Louis, the Oilers back line are in a position to thrive as they face off against a Blues offense who ranks 31st in Expected Goals For in All Situations with an average of 2.74 Expected Goals per game. Especially with Dylan Holloway out with an injury, leaving the Blues dangerously thin of playmakers who are able to consistently pressure the net. With their offense unable to space out the Oilers coverage, expect Pickard to wall off their low quality Shots on Goal and hold the Blues under their team total.
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After generating five Shots on Goal against an Anaheim Ducks back line who ranks dead last in Expected Goals Against in All Situations, negative regression looms large over Zach Hyman as he faces off against a far higher quality of defense. Especially with Connor McDavid still dealing with an injury as Hyman loses out on the higher quality shooting lanes the future hall of famer creates when he pulls defensive attention away from him.
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