Best NHL Prop Bets Today: Negative Regression Looms Large Over the Blues

With Toronto’s defense struggling to defend their net, the Florida Panthers revamped offense are in a position to thrive as their versatility will help open up gaps in the Maple Leafs coverage. A few hours after Negative regression looms large over the St. Louis Blues as their front line faces off against the Winnipeg Jets star goalie Connor Hellebuyck who currently is a massive betting favorite for the Vezina Trophy award. Later in the night, we turn our attention towards another team total as the vaunted Los Angeles Kings defense battles it out against a Seattle front line who severely struggles with creating high quality Shots on Goal.

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St. Louis Blues vs. Winnipeg Jets - Prop Bets (7:30 PM, EST)

St. Louis Blues Team Total Under 2.5 (-135) at BetMGM Sportsbook

No one in the league is hotter than St. Louis as the Blues have rattled off 12 wins in a row to help climb up the Western Conference wildcard standings and salvage their hopes of making the playoffs. Their defense has played a major role in their recent success as their back line excels at smothering opposing shot attempts at a high rate. As of writing, the Blues defense ranks fourth overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations with an average of 2.81 Expected Goals Against per game.

Unfortunately for St. Louis, their front line has struggled to give them the production they need to be a well rounded unit and help limit the amount of variance in their contest as their offense ranks near dead last in Expected Goals For in All Situations. With only Jordan Kyrou generating Expected Goals at a high rate for the Blues, their lack of playmakers makes it tough for their offense to stretch out opposing back lines to create higher quality scoring opportunities and pressure the net at a more consistent rate.

That spells disaster against Winnipeg as the Jets defense excels in coverage as their high mark in Expected Goals Against in All Situations indicates. Especially with Connor Hellebuyck anchoring their net as the reigning Vezina Trophy winner averages just 2.04 Goals Against per game. With the Jets star goalie getting the benefit of remaining relatively still in net, that reduces the chances of a gap opening up beside him. If Eric Comrie gets the start for Winnipeg instead, then reduce the size of your wager.

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Kyle Connor Anytime Goalscorer (+130) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Over the past few weeks of play, Kyle Connor’s linemates have generated a higher amount of Expected Goals per game as they have been able to pressure the net at a more consistent rate. Their improvement has opened up wider shooting lanes for Connor to exploit as opposing defenses are forced to stretch out their coverage to help cover all their playmakers. Expect their spread out attack to continue to create high quality shooting lanes for Connor, increasing his chances of scoring on the Blues stout defense.

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Seattle Kraken vs. Los Angeles Kings - Prop Bets (10:30 PM, EST)

Seattle Kraken Team Total Under 2.5 (-155) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Like the Jets, the Los Angeles Kings have also backed a majority of their success on the play of their back line as their defense ranks first overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations with an average of 2.63 Expected Goals Against per game. Their coverage has helped Darcy Kuemper elevate his level of play after a lackluster 2024 campaign as the King starting goalie currently leads the league in average Goals Against per game. 

Their high level of play on defense will be on full display Monday night as they face off against a Seattle Kraken offense who ranks 25th in Expected Goals For in All Situations. With only two Kraken players averaging over 0.25 Expected Goals per game, the Kings back line will be able to shade their coverage towards their scorers while daring their underwhelming teammates to beat them. Barring a broken play, expect the Kings to consistently smother Seattle’s shot attempts and hold them under their team total.

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Adrian Kempe Anytime Goalscorer (+150) at FanDuel Sportsbook

On the other side of the ice, Adrian Kempe will have the opportunity to sustain his high level of play as he faces off against a Kraken back line who ranks 24th in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Kempe has been the Kings most consistent source of offensive production this season as the forward averages 0.37 Expected Goals per game. With the Kraken defense struggling to stay in front of the puck, expect Kempe to pressure the net at a more consistent rate and net his 34th goal of the season.

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