With seven players averaging over 0.25 Expected Goals per game, the Dallas Stars possess more than enough playmakers to stretch out Nashville’s underwhelming coverage to help light up the scoreboard and cover the puck line. After the conclusion of their contest, we turn our attention towards the matchup between Edmonton and San Jose as the Oilers stout defense faces off against a Sharks front line who struggles to pressure the net.
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With less than ten games remaining in the regular season, the Dallas Stars room for error is razor thin should they want to win the Central division title. As of writing, the Winnipeg Jets currently possess a four point lead over them for first in the division standings. Winning the division is vital as both teams currently possess better records than the current Pacific division leader which means either the Stars or Jets would secure the top seed in the Western Conference and face off against the weakest wildcard contender.
Fortunately for Dallas, they have a favorable matchup against Nashville on Thursday night to help chip away at the gap between them and Winnipeg for first. The Predators back line have struggled to play at a competitive level this season as their defense ranks 17th in Expected Goals Against in All Situations with an average of 3.09 Expected Goals Against per game. Their lack of goaltending has also played a major role in their struggles as Juuse Saros and Justus Annunen average nearly three Goals Against per game.
No matter who gets the start in net for Nashville, either goalie will be under relentless pressure against Dallas as the Stars versatility will have their back line stretched out thin. This will result in higher quality shooting lanes for Dallas to exploit, increasing their chances of scoring. Factor in Dallas also grading out well in Expected Goals Against in All Situations, as well as receiving a high level of individual production from their goaltending, and the Stars are in a great position to cover the puck line.
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After scoring in two of his last three games, the Stars Mikko Rantanen has started to get into a groove since settling into his new home. The former Av and Hurricane has excelled at pressuring the net this season as Rantanen averages 0.46 Expected Goals per game. With Nashville’s back line struggling to defend their net, Rantanen will be in a great position to sustain his hot stretch of play. Especially with his linemates stretching out their coverage, giving Rantanen wider shooting lanes for him to exploit.
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With the Edmonton Oilers Stuart Skinner out with an injury, their backup goalie Calvin Pickard has the opportunity to make a case for being their starter. A blessing in disguise for the Oilers as Pickard actually possesses better metrics in average Goals Against per game and in Save Percentage. Should Pickard sustain his high level of play while playing behind a back line who ranks fifth overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations, then Edmonton’s defense will be one of the more formidable units in the playoffs.
Pickard will have a great opportunity to put together a dominant performance on Thursday night as he faces off against a San Jose offense who ranks 29th overall in Expected Goals For in All Situations. Especially with the Sharks lacking the playmaking needed to stretch out the Oilers suffocating coverage, allowing Pickard to remain fairly still which helps lessen the possibility of a gap opening up in his net. Should Oliver Rodrigue get the start for Edmonton instead, then reduce the size of your wager.
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On the other side of the ice, the Oilers high powered offense faces off against a San Jose back line who ranks 31st in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Even without Connor McDavid who is still recovering from an injury, the Oilers possess more than enough talent to consistently pressure the Sharks net. Factor in their defense potentially getting a bump with Pickard taking the reins at goalie and the Oilers have a great opportunity to secure a sizable win in regulation.
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