The Vegas Golden Knights have the opportunity to pad their lead at the top of the Pacific division standings as they get a favorable matchup against the Chicago Blackhawks and their anemic offense. Before their puck drops, we target a team total over in the contest between Carolina and Montreal as the Hurricanes offense faces off against a Canadiens back line who severely struggles in coverage.
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Even though the Vegas Golden Knights have a five point lead over the Los Angeles Kings for first in the Pacific division standings, their lead is far from safe as there are still 10 games remaining in the regular season. Winning the division title is vital as the Golden Knights would get to face off against a wildcard contender while the Kings would play the Edmonton Oilers. A far easier opponent as the Oilers still grade out as one of the best teams in the league and would be expected to be at full health for the playoffs.
To help limit the amount of variance in their contests and increase their chances of winning, the Golden Knights back line must provide their net better coverage as their defense ranks 11th overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Even with their offense playing at a very high level, their lack of defensive production hurts their chances of winning the Stanley Cup as the quality of opposing offenses are expected to ramp up the deeper they get into the playoffs.
Fortunately for Vegas, their back line has the opportunity to round back into form as they face off against a Chicago Blackhawks offense who ranks dead last in Expected Goals For in All Situations with an average of 2.45 Expected Goals per game. Chicago’s lack of versatility will allow the Golden Knights goalie Adin Hill to remain fairly still instead of constantly shifting across the ice, increasing his chances of making the save. Expect Hill to string together a dominant performance and keep the Blackhawks off the scoreboard.
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On the other side of the ice, the Golden Knights front line should face minimal resistance in their efforts of pressuring the net as the Blackhawks defense also severely struggles in coverage as their below league average mark in Expected Goals Against in All Situations indicates. That bodes well for Pavel Dorofeyev as the Golden Knights forward excels at creating high quality scoring opportunities. Heading into Friday, Dorofeyev averages 0.35 Expected Goals and 3.06 Shots on Goal per game.
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Since the start of the regular season, Carolina’s front line have been in a tier of their own as the Hurricanes offense leads the league in Expected Goals For in All Situations with an average of 3.62 Expected Goals per game. Even after trading away Mikko Rantenan to the Dallas Stars, the Hurricanes have been able to sustain their high marks on offense as the newly acquired Logan Stankoven has been able to mask his loss of production with his own high level of individual play.
Their explosive offense will be in a favorable position to consistently generate high quality scoring opportunities as they face off against a Montreal Canadiens back line who ranks 30th overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Especially with the Canadiens on the second half of a back-to-back as their movement may be slowed down due to tired legs. Should the Canadiens defense struggle to match Carolina’s speed, then that will open up wider shooting lanes for the Hurricanes to exploit.
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Ever since Seth Jarvis has been slotted into the same line as Sebastian Aho, the Hurricanes forward has been able to pressure the net at a more consistent rate as his center commands defensive attention away from him with his own high level of play. This opens up wider gaps in coverage for Jarvis to exploit, increasing his chances of generating a high quality Shot on Goal. Should tired legs also play a factor, then Jarvis will find himself with more time in the slot to operate to help set up a shot at the Canadiens net.
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