Best NHL Prop Bets Today: Toronto in a Position to Cover the Puck Line

With San Jose’s offense struggling to play at a competitive level, the Toronto Maple Leafs regressing back line has the opportunity to halt their fall down the board in Expected Goals Against in All Situations which helps increase their chances of covering the puck line. Before their puck drop, we turn our attention towards the Minnesota Wild as their offense lacks the versatility needed to open up gaps in Washington’s coverage.

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Toronto Maple Leafs vs. San Jose Sharks - Prop Bets (10:30 PM, EST)

Toronto Maple Leafs Puck Line -1.5 (-105) at BetMGM Sportsbook

The race for the Atlantic division title has been an exciting one as the Toronto Maple Leafs and Florida Panthers are tied for first with 11 games left in the season. To make it even more interesting, the Tampa Bay Lightning are also nipping at their heels as the Bolts are only two points back as of writing. Should Toronto want to break away from the two contenders and win the division title, then their back line must round back into competitive form as their defense ranks 24th in Expected Goals Against in All Situations.

Fortunately for Toronto, they are set to face off against San Jose who has been abysmal on offense this season. Even with Macklin Celebrini giving their offense a boost in production, the Calder Memorial Trophy contender has not been able to turn them into a competitive unit as the Sharks rank 29th in Expected Goals For in All Situations. Their lack of versatility makes it hard for their offense to create high quality scoring opportunities as only three players average more than 0.25 Expected Goals per game.

On the other side of the ice, it should be business as usual for the Maple Leafs offense as they face off against a Sharks back line who severely struggles in coverage as their near dead last mark in Expected Goals Against in All Situations indicates. Especially with Alexandar Georgiev projected to get the start in net as the Sharks starting goalie is averaging an astonishing 3.57 Goals Against per game and a .876 Save Percentage.

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Auston Matthews Over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-135) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Arguably no one in the league pressures the net at a more consistent rate than the Maple Leafs Auston Matthews as the Team USA captain is averaging 0.59 Expected Goals and 3.98 Shots on Goal per game. With the Sharks struggling to defend their net, Matthews should find himself with wider shooting lanes for him to exploit when he blitzes through their back line in transition. This will lead to an uptick in his number of shot attempts, increasing his chances of generating more Shots on Goal.

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Washington Capitals vs. Minnesota Wild - Prop Bets (7:30 PM, EST)

Minnesota Wild Team Total Under 2.5 (-110) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Like the Sharks, the Minnesota Wild offense have also failed to play at a competitive level as their front line currently ranks 28th overall in Expected Goals For in All Situations. Kirill Kaprizov going down with an injury has played a major role in their regression as the star forward averaged 0.49 Expected Goals per game. Not only did Kaprizov generate high quality Shots on Goal at a consistent rate, but he also excelled at facilitating as he averaged nearly one assist per game.

Without his production, Minnesota’s lack of playmakers makes it hard for their offense to create space to increase the quality of their shot attempts. This will allow Washington’s back line to anchor in coverage to help lessen the width of Minnesota’s shooting lanes in front of their net. With a minimal amount of pressure in front of him, Logan Thompson is in a great position to put together a dominant performance as the Capitals goalie averages just 2.32 Goals Against per game and a .917 Save Percentage.

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Vinnie Hinostroza Under 1.5 Shots on Goal (-145) at BetMGM Sportsbook

It has been a rough past two weeks of play for Minnesota’s Vinnie Hinostroza as the Wild forward is averaging just one Shot on Goal and less than one point per game. A direct result of their lack of versatility as opposing defenses have been able to smother their shot attempts at a more consistent rate with no one demanding defensive attention away from their net. Expect Vinnie to continue to struggle while receiving minimal support from his linemates.

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