Best NHL Prop Bets Today: Target a Pair of Regressing Defenses to Round Back Into Form

Even though the Dallas Stars back line have regressed over the past few weeks of play, the anemic Minnesota Wild offense will still struggle to generate high quality Shots on Goal which will leave them prone to falling behind on the scoreboard. Shortly before their puck drops, we target a team total under in the matchup between Vancouver and New Jersey as the Devils defense faces off against a Canucks front line who ranks near dead last in Expected Goals For in All Situations.

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Minnesota Wild vs. Dallas Stars - Prop Bets (8:00 PM, EST)

Dallas Stars Puck Line -1.5 (+120) at BetMGM Sportsbook

With 13 games remaining in the regular season, the Dallas Stars need to be near perfect should they want to win the Central division title. As of writing, the Stars are eight points back from Winnipeg for first while possessing one of the more favorable remaining strength of schedules in the league. In order for Dallas to finish out the year strong, their back line will need to quickly round back into form as their defense has dropped down to 13th overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations.

Fortunately for Dallas, their back line has the perfect opportunity to put together a dominant performance and build some momentum as they face off against a Minnesota Wild offense who ranks 28th in Expected Goals For in All Situations. Without Kirill Kaprizov, the Wild offense have struggled with creating high quality scoring opportunities as they lack the versatility needed to stretch out opposing back lines. Not including Kaprizov, only three Minnesota players average more than 0.25 Expected Goals per game.

Speaking of versatility, Dallas possesses more than enough playmakers to keep the Wild’s starting goalie Filip Gustavsson constantly shifting across the ice as the Stars rank top-10 in Expected Goals For in All Situations and in 5-on-5 Play. Their depth gives them the ability to consistently pressure the net for the duration of their contest, as well as drastically reduce the chances of them going through a prolonged scoring lull. With clear advantages on both sides of the ice, back the Stars to cover the puck line.

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Mikko Rantanen Anytime Goalscorer (+170) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Since being traded to the Dallas Stars, Mikko Rantenan has been able to sustain his high level of play as the star forward averages 0.46 Expected Goals and 2.77 Shots on Goal per game. Even though the Wild back line ranks ninth overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations, their coverage will be stretched thin by the Stars spread out attack. This opens up higher quality shooting lanes for Rantenan to exploit, increasing his chances of scoring a goal.

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Vancouver Canucks vs. New Jersey Devils - Prop Bets (7:30 PM, EST)

Vancouver Canucks Team Total Under 2.5 (-135) at BetMGM Sportsbook

After going 4-6-0 in their last 10 contests, the New Jersey Devils now possess just a one point lead over Ottawa for the third spot in the Metropolitan division standings. Finishing in the top three is vital as it secures you an auto berth for the playoffs while the bottom five have to compete against the rest of the wildcard contenders for one of the two wildcard spots. Their recent struggles can be pointed towards their defense as the Devils back line has dropped down to 14th in Expected Goals Against in All Situations.

Like the Stars, the Devils also have the opportunity to hold their opponent off the scoreboard as they face off against a Vancouver offense who ranks near dead last in Expected Goals For in All Situations. Especially with Jacob Markstrom playing at a high level as the Devils starting goalie is averaging just 2.49 Goals Against per game. With his back line expected to provide him better coverage, expect Markstrom to sustain his high marks in net by consistently walling off the Canucks low quality Shots on Goal.

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Quinn Hughes Under 2.5 Shots on Goal (-122) at FanDuel Sportsbook

With the Devils back line expected to round back into form, negative regression looms large over Quinn Hughes as the Canucks defenseman will be tasked with weaving the puck through low quality shooting lanes from the blue line. Especially if his front line continues to struggle with pressuring the net, allowing the Devils defense to anchor in coverage and smother his shot attempts at a consistent rate.

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