Even though there is only one game scheduled for Friday’s slate, the contest between the Columbus Blue Jackets and Pittsburgh Penguins will provide us with plenty of entertainment as both teams look to salvage their hopes of making the playoffs. With the Blue Jackets back line struggling to defend their net, the Penguins have the opportunity to consistently generate high quality scoring opportunities to help clear the over on their team total.
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Time is not on Pittsburgh’s side as they are currently out of the playoff picture with less than 20 games remaining in the regular season. As of writing, the Penguins are seven points back from the Montreal Canadiens for the last wildcard spot in the Eastern Conference wildcard standings and 14 points back from the New Jersey Devils for third in the Metropolitan. With five other contenders all jockeying for Montreal’s position, the Penguins can ill-afford to drop too many games for the remainder of the year.
With Pittsburgh’s playoff hopes hanging by a thread, the Penguins must secure the win over Columbus to help remain in contention. Fortunately for the Pens, their offense will have the ability to keep them competitive in their contest against the Blue Jackets as they face off against a back line who ranks 22nd in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Especially with Daniil Tarasov projected to get the start in net for Columbus as their backup goalie is averaging 3.52 Goals Against per game and a .882 Save Percentage.
Tired legs may also hurt the Blue Jackets ability to match the Penguins speed as they enter the contest on the second half of a back-to-back. If their back line struggles to shift across the ice while Pittsburgh is cycling the puck in their zone, then that will create wider gaps in coverage for the Penguins offense to exploit. Expect Pittsburgh to capitalize on their higher quality scoring opportunities and clear the over on their team total. Should the Penguins team total climb up to 3.5, then reduce the size of your wager.
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On the other side of the ice, the Penguins back line have struggled to play at a competitive level as their defense ranks 28th overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. The wider shooting lanes their lack of coverage provides gives Zach Werenski the opportunity to improve on the quality of his shot attempts as he gets the benefit of weaving the puck through less traffic from the blue line. With the quality of his Shots on Goal expected to increase, Werenski will be in a favorable position to score on Friday night.
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