Best NHL Prop Bets Today: Back Toronto’s Offense to Fan the Flames

With Calgary’s back line underwhelming in coverage, the Toronto Maple Leafs offense has a great opportunity to light up the scoreboard to help halt their fall down the Atlantic division standings. Before their puck drops, we back the New Jersey Devils to clear the over on their team total as their offense faces off against the Columbus Blue Jackets who struggle to defend their net.

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Calgary Flames vs. Toronto Maple Leafs - Prop Bets (7:30 PM, EST)

Toronto Maple Leafs Team Total Over 3.5 (-110) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Not only have the Tampa Bay Lightning leaped over Toronto for second place in the Atlantic division standings, but the Maple Leafs are in serious jeopardy of falling out of the top three as the Ottawa Senators are only four points behind them for third. Finishing in the top three in the division is vital as it secures you an auto berth for the playoffs while the bottom five have to compete against the rest of the Eastern Conference for one of the two wildcard spots.

Fortunately for Toronto, they kick off their week with a favorable matchup against Calgary to help stop their fall down the division standings. Especially with Calgary’s defense struggling to play at a competitive level as the Flames back line ranks 21st in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. While Dustin Wolf has been able to mask their struggles on defense with his own high level of play, negative regression looms large over the rookie goalie as he will be under relentless pressure throughout the duration of the contest.

Toronto’s front line has excelled at pressuring the net this season as their offense resides in the top half of the board in Expected Goals For in All Situations. While Auston Matthews hogs most of the spotlight as one of the league’s top players, the Maple Leafs offense is full of efficient scorers as six players average more than 0.25 Expected Goals per game. Expect Toronto to continue to lean on their versatility to keep Wolf constantly shifting across the ice to help open up gaps and increase their chances of scoring.

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Auston Matthews Over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-125) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Speaking of Matthews, the star center has played at a very high level this season as he averages 0.59 Expected Goals and 3.96 Shots on Goal per game. Even with his linemates struggling to create high quality scoring opportunities for themselves, that has not stopped Matthews from consistently pressuring the net as he excels at weaving the puck through clogged lanes. Expect Matthews to take advantage of the Flames underwhelming coverage, converting his shot attempts into Shots on Goal at a higher rate.

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New Jersey Devils vs. Columbus Blue Jackets - Prop Bets (7:00 PM, EST)

New Jersey Devils Team Total Over 3 (-135) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Even after losing Jack Hughes to a season ending injury, the New Jersey Devils front line have continued to generate high quality Shots on Goal at a consistent rate as their offense ranks third overall in Expected Goals For in All Situations. With their back line falling down the board in Expected Goals Against over the past few weeks, their offensive production has been crucial for them to remain competitive as they have had to combat against a higher amount of variance in their contests.

Heading into Monday, the Devils front line will have the opportunity to ward off variance by consistently pressuring a Columbus Blue Jackets defense who ranks 23rd in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Especially with Elvis Merzlikins failing to give them the production they need to play at a competitive level as the Blue Jackets starting goalie is averaging 3.04 Goals Against per game and a .896 Save Percentage. Should the Devils team total climb up to 3.5, then reduce the size of your wager.

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Nico Hischier Anytime Goalscorer (+170) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Even though Nico Hischier is not as aggressive as Hughes in regard to Shots on Goal per game, the Devils center has been far more efficient with his shot selection as he leads the team in Expected Goals. With Hughes out, Hischier will have the opportunity to generate more high quality Shots on Goal with a heavier usage rate. Especially if his left wing Timo Meier continues to play at a high level and command defensive attention away from him, increasing the quality of his shooting lanes across the middle.

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