With less than 20 games remaining in the regular season, the Florida Panthers have a great opportunity to strengthen their position at the top of the Atlantic division standings as they battle it out against the Toronto Maple Leafs who have harshly regressed on defense. At the same time as their puck drop, the Vegas Golden Knights are in a favorable position to consistently generate high quality Shots on Goal as they face off against the Columbus Blue Jackets who struggle in coverage.
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The race for the Atlantic division title has been one of the more exciting spectacles to watch this season as the Toronto Maple Leafs and Florida Panthers have swapped spots for first on multiple occasions. As of writing, the reigning Stanley Cup champions have the upperhand as they currently possess a two point lead over Toronto for first. The Tampa Bay Lightning are also still hovering in contention as they are just five points back from Florida after going 7-3-0 in their last 10 contests.
To help pull away from the two contenders, the Panthers high powered offense will need to consistently pressure the Maple Leafs net in order to get Anthony Stolarz frantically shifting across the ice. Stolarz has been one of the better goalies in the league this season as he is currently averaging just 2.34 Goals Against per game. Fortunately for the Panthers, their versatile offense possesses more than enough playmakers to keep Stolarz guessing as five players average over 0.30 Expected Goals per game.
On the other side of the ice, the Panthers back line have recently elevated their level of play as their defense ranks fifth in Expected Goals Against in All Situations after ranking just league average earlier in the year. Their improvement has helped Sergei Bobrovsky round back into form as the Panthers goalie now sits in the top-12 in average Goals Against per game. With his back line consistently lessening the quality of Toronto’s shot attempts, expect Bobrovsky to wall them off to help Florida cover the puck line.
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Even though his linemates on the second line struggle to pressure the net, that has not stopped Sam Bennett from generating scoring opportunities as he averages 0.42 Expected Goals and 3.22 Shots on Goal per game. Against Toronto’s underwhelming back line, expect Bennett to maintain his aggressive attack as he gets the benefit of weaving through wider gaps in coverage. For some more exposure, also sprinkle a wager on Bennett to score as his uptick in shot attempts increases his chances of scoring.
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Like the Panthers, the Vegas Golden Knights also field a very versatile offense as seven players average more than 0.25 Expected Goals per game. Their spread out attack has helped them consistently generate high quality Shots on Goal on a nightly basis as the Golden Knights front line currently ranks fourth overall in Expected Goals For in All Situations with an average of 3.44 Expected Goals per game.
Every bit of their offensive production will be on full display against Columbus as the Blue Jackets defense ranks 23rd overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Especially with their goaltending also struggling to play at competitive level as Elvis Merzlikins averages 3.04 Goals Against per game and a .896 Save Percentage. Expect Merzlikins to be under constant pressure as the Golden Knights will use their versatility to stretch out the Blue Jackets coverage to help open up shooting lanes in front of the net.
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Tomas Hertl has excelled at creating high quality Shots on Goal this season as he currently averages 0.47 Expected Goals per game. Pavel Dorofeyev has played a major role in Hertl’s success as his own high level of play draws defensive attention away from him which helps create higher quality shooting lanes for his center to exploit. With the Blue Jackets struggling to defend their net, expect Hertl to capitalize on his high quality scoring opportunities his teammate provides by netting his 28th goal of the season.
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