After successfully backing Colorado’s defense on Monday night, we go back to the well as the Avs have a great opportunity to keep the injury riddled Minnesota offense off the scoreboard. After the conclusion of their contest, we turn our attention towards the Washington Capitals as their high powered front line faces off against the Anaheim Ducks who rank dead last in Expected Goals Against in All Situations.
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After holding off the Colorado Avalanche for one of the top three spots in the Central division standings for a majority of the season, the Minnesota Wild are now on the outside looking in as the Avs have leaped over them for third. Finishing the year in the top-3 is vital as it secures you an auto berth for the playoffs while the bottom five of the division have to compete against the rest of the Western Conference for one of the two wildcard spots.
Unfortunately for Minnesota, the Wild have struggled to remain competitive in their contests ever since Kirill Kaprizov suffered an injury. Kaprizov played a major role for their offense as the forward averaged 0.49 Expected Goals and nearly one assist per game. Without Kaprizov, the Wild have dropped down to 26th overall in Expected Goals For in All Situations. Their lack of playmakers hurts their chances of creating high quality Shots on Goal which leaves them prone to going through lengthy scoring lulls.
Heading into Tuesday, Minnesota’s offense will continue to underwhelm as they face off against an Avalanche defense who ranks second overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Especially with Mackenzie Blackwood projected to get the start after his backup Scott Wedgewood played last night as the former San Jose Shark averages 2.54 Goals Against per game and a .914 Save Percentage. Should the Wild team total move down to a flat two before you place your bet, then reduce the size of your wager.
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To make matters worse for Minnesota, their defense has also steadily regressed as the Wild rank 12th overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Minnesota’s lackluster coverage will lead to higher quality scoring opportunities for Colorado’s front line to exploit, increasing the Avs chances of building up a lead on the scoreboard. Especially with Filip Gustavsson failing to round back into form since making his return from injury as the Wild goalie continues to fall down the board in average Goals Against per game.
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Since the start of the regular season, the Washington Capitals front line have excelled at consistently pressuring the net as their offense ranks sixth overall in Expected Goals For in All Situations with an average of 3.36 Expected Goals per game. Even with the Capitals defense struggling to play at a high level, their explosive offense has been able to keep them competitive enough to rival the Winnipeg Jets for the top spot of the overall standings to help remain in contention for the Presidents’ Trophy.
While Washington’s offense has thrived, Anaheim’s back line has severely underwhelmed as the Ducks rank dead last in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Even with their pair of goalies possessing Save Percentages over .900, the duo rank in the bottom half of the board in average Goals Against per game as their back line allows opposing offenses to pepper them with high quality Shots on Goal at an alarming rate. Expect the Ducks defense to continue to struggle while the Capitals relentlessly pressure their net.
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In his quest of breaking Wayne Gretzky’s career goal scoring record, Alexander Ovechkin will be in a great position to chip away at the gap between the two as the future hall of famer faces off against the Ducks horrific defense. Ovechkin has excelled at creating high quality scoring opportunities this season as he is averaging 0.48 Expected Goals per game. With the Ducks back line struggling to defend their net, expect Ovechkin to generate a higher amount of shot attempts which increases his chances of cashing this prop.
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